Afghanistan not yet ready for a US troop withdrawal

With a "peace" deal nearing completion between the US and the Taliban, the American military are beginning to get worried: politics and diplomacy are taking the place of security and stability in Afghanistan. General Joseph Dunford, the eminently sensible chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked at a press briefing at the Pentagon yesterday whether he was happy about US troops being pulled out as part of the deal with the Taliban and whether Afghanistan was ready to stand on its own two feet in fighting terrorist organisations. Dunford replied carefully to the first question because he didn't want to get in the way of the State Deartment which is in charge of the negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar, and he and Mark Esper, the US defence secretary, also at the briefing, both said Trump had promised any agreement with the Taliban would be "conditions-based" (ie, depending on security conditions on the ground). But to the second question Dunford answered "no". This is one of the major problems still left to sort out. Even if the Taliban insurgents call off their war and agree to a proper ceasefire, who is going to fight off al-Qaeda and the growing presence of Isis extremists in Afghanistan? Clearly not the Taliban; and the Afghan counter-terrorist forces, pretty good though they are, cannot do the job without US special operations troops and fancy American intelligence support. So what does that mean? There are 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan, about 5,000 of which are involved in counter-terrorist operations against al-Qaeda, Isis and the numerous other extremist groups. The Taliban negotiators will never agree to allow these 5,000 specialist troops to remain in Afghanistan. So, the idea has been put forward that they should somehow be available to help the Afghan forces from an out-of-country, over-the-horizon location. But that's never going to work properly. And again, would the Taliban allow that as part of the final deal? Most unlikely. They want all foreign troops out of Afghanistan, preferably within sx months of the deal being signed. General Dunford is not going to be in a position to demand a permanent presence of US counter-terrorist troops in Afghanistan, because the final deal is out of his hands. It will be driven by the White House and State Department. Trump has talked vaguely about the US maintaining a strong intelligence presence in the country. I assume he means that the CIA station in Kabul will be expanded, to include specalists from the para-military division of the intelligence agency. But these were the guys who helped topple the Taliban from power in 2001. So I can't see them being welcome guests in Afghanistan when the Taliban joins the Kabul government in some power-sharing arrangement. It's not difficult to see why General Dunford is so concerned about the future. The military, of course, always hate leaving a mission unfinished, and can't bear the thought of the Taliban getting back so much of what they lost in 2001. Moreoever there are already signs that the most radical of the Taliban insurgents are looking to join Isis, just as the Sunni Iraqi militants did after Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. Isis commanders in Iraq were principally disillusioned ex-Iraqi army Sunnis. Thus, a mass withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan under a Taliban peace deal could lead to a substantial recruiting boost for Isis. Is that being discussed at the Qatar talks? General Dunford is retiring in a month's time but I bet he grabs every opportunity he can, privately and publicly, to put across his views that Afghanistan is not yet ready to deal with a-Qaeda and Isis on its own. But will the Afghan forces ever be good enough to take over this role without the Americans? I fear not. Isis in Afghanistan must be rubbing its hands with glee.