Mike Pompeo is key to Trump winning a second term

With so many comings and goings from the US administration since Donald Trump took power, there are certain key individuals whom the president needs to hang on to if he wants stability in his cabinet as he campaigns for 2020 reelection. None more so than Mike Pompeo. He is a big man in every way. The secretary of state has a crucial place in Trump's national security team and if there is even a hint that he might step down to pursue other interests - such as campaigning for the Senate - before 2020, it's almost bound to have a negative impact on the president's chances of staying in the White House. Trump's national security team has on occasions looked pretty shaky because of the constant change in personnel. But Pompeo's presence has kept the ship running. Two national security advisers departed, Mike Flynn followed by Lieutenant-General HR McMaster, and two defence secretaries, General Jim Mattis and Patrick Shanahan, although the latter never made it officially to the Pentagon post, and now it seems clear that Trump had already withdrawn his nomination of Shanahan even before the FBI discovered during checks on the former Boeing executive that he had been involved in some heavy family domestic disputes in the past. Of course Pompeo wasn't the first secretary of state under Trump. Rex Tillerson enjoyed that role initially but he didn't last long because he was regarded as unsuited and unsuitable for the job of America's top diplomat. Pompeo has never looked likely to be next in the firing line. On the contrary, his solid presence has helped Trump to make sense of the most challenging foreign policy issues although it seems Pompeo as well as John Bolton, the national security adviser, was in favour of military strikes on Iran in retaliation for the shooting down of the Global Hawk drone. I suspect that the main person cautioning against airstrikes was General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. The military always worry about consequences, and he probably foresaw new dangers for American personnel in the region in the event of a US hit on Iran. Nevertheless, despite Trump's rejection of Pompeo's advice on this occasion, the secretary of state will continue to play a vital role in Trump's cabinet. The renewed whispers that he might want to try for the Senate in Kansas should give Trump reason to worry. He can't afford to lose him. There is no one obvious to succeed him, although I guess Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the UN, could be persuaded to return to government. Pompeo of course is an ambitious politician and after time at the CIA as director and at State, he must have dreams of trying for the presidency in 2024. Serving as a senator for a few years would be just the ticket for that dream to be fulfilled. The grandees of the Republican Party would love to have Pompeo on the ticket for 2024.