Wednesday, 5 June 2019

Is the US/UK intelligence partnership safe in Trump's hands?

Donald Trump was asked during a press conference in London yesterday whether the historic intelligence-sharing agreement between the US and UK was at risk because of the row over China's Huawei telecommunications company and its 5G network on offer to Britain. He replied that it would "absolutely" be solved and the intelligence-sharing club would carry on as normal. That was a clever answer. He didn't say the partnership would survive even if the British government signed a deal with Huawaei. He just said the Huawei situation would be resolved. In other words, he would win the argument and the UK would NOT sign any deal with Huawei. Well, it's all up in the air now because Theresa May who seemed partial to accepting some sort of contract with Huawei is on her way out and the new prime minister may have different views and Huawei could still be banned. Perhaps during his 20-minute telephone conversation with Boris Johnson yesterday Trump was given an assurance that if he, Boris, became prime minister, he would ban Huawei. I bet he did. BUt the main point is that the incredible intelligence exchanges between the US and UK will survive whoever is in power in the White House or Number 10 Downing Street. It started off as an agreement signed by the leaders of the two countries more than 75 years ago and has developed and expanded and consolidated because of the professionals working for all the intelligence agencies. The chiefs of MI6, CIA, GCHQ and the National Security Agency have no closer working relationship than with each other. No policitian is going to undermine that, Huawei or no Huawei. There is much talk in the US that the historic trust is no longer as strong - on the US side because of the scandalous dossier written by ex-MI6 officer Christopher Steele which produced a pile of dirt on Trump during the 2016 presidential election campaign, including salacious stuff involving prostitutes in Moscow (and some American poiticians believe the UK government was behind it), and on the UK side because of the perceived unreliability of Trump and what he might do with super-secret British intelligence. But this is all political rubbish. The intelligence services have faced challenges in the past and the US/UK patnership has carried on as usual. I don't believe Trump would ever jeopardise this relationship and the wider Five Eyes intelligence club that also embraces Australia, New Zealand and Canada. He knows by now how important it is and the power it gives him as president. He may have been rude about the US intelligence community in the past but that was always about politics. As for the allegation that the UK government was behind the Steele dossier because it wanted to prevent Trump from becoming president, this I believe to be total rubbish. So actually, despite the ambivalence of Trump's remark yesterday about Huawei, what he said should be reassuring. That the intelligence partnership will not be affected.

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