Pentagon dusts off military plan to confront Iran

My analysis in The Times today: ROBERT Gates, ever a realist as US defence secretary from 2006 to 2011, once said that any Pentagon chief who advised the president to launch another land invasion in the Middle East would need his head examined. After the prolonged insurgency in Iraq following the US-led invasion in 2003, Mr Gates had Iran in mind. Seven years ago, in retirement, he warned that any military strike against Iran, whether by the US or Israel, would have “catastrophic” consequences. Despite his predecessor’s misgivings, Patrick Shanahan, acting defence secretary but now selected by Donald Trump for the top job if confirmed by the Senate, has dusted off and revised the Pentagon’s contingency plan for military confrontation with Iran. Mr Shanahan has insufficient Washington clout as yet to do anything more than obey his master’s orders in the White House but his military advisers will be urging extreme caution. The headline figure is the recommended dispatching of 120,000 US troops to the Gulf region to deter or retaliate against any Iranian strikes on American interests and to be ready if there is evidence of Tehran “breaking out” from the 2015 nuclear deal and enriching uranium to bomb-grade level. However, as Pentagon officials have pointed out in the past when a strike on Iran was mooted, the US military has no plan for an Iraq-style land invasion. Marines, special operations troops and army brigades would play a role in such a scenario. But air and naval power would be the first choice. In the current circumstances, the 120,000 troops, if deployed, would be sent to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, with Marines on board amphibious ships, but as a back-up force to boost the US naval and bomber presence in the region in the event of an Iranian attack on Gulf shipping or oil installations. Any more ambitious contingency planning involving strikes on nuclear facilities or to effect regime-change would necessitate a massive bombing campaign, potentially leading to the regional catastrophe Mr Gates predicted. Putting the current Pentagon troop plan into context, the US and allies deployed 750,000 military personnel to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War, as part of Operation Desert Storm. For the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, America sent 150,000 troops although this rose to around 235,000 in the region by the time Baghdad fell. Six US carrier battle groups in the Mediterranean and Gulf were also involved. In the last 50 years, US forces have been engaged in Vietnam, Lebanon, Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Kuwait, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and the Horn of Africa. The Pentagon has contingency plans for every eventuality but no American military commander wants a war with Iran.