The instant impact of Trump's troop withdrawal from Syria

The impact of Trump's decision to pull all 2,000 US troops out of Syria has been huge, even though the withdrawal has yet to begin. All the remaining players are making their moves: the Syrian regime forces have swiftly moved northeast to fill the vacuum. The Kurds who once relied on the US have taken the astute and safe option by inviting Damascus to send troops to occupy the key stronghold of Manbij in northern Syria which until now has been occupied by the US-trained Syrian Democratic Forces. The Kurds will leave, avoiding what was fast becoming an invevitable invasion by the Turkish army which has been building up forces on the border for the last few weeks. The Kurds are Turkey's main enemy. They are seen as terrorists. While the Americans were still in play, President Erdogan of Turkey was reluctant to send his army in to attack Manbij because of the risk of fighting and killing Americans. But Manbij is now in Erdogan's crosshairs and he wants the Kurdish-occupied town to be filled with Turkish troops. So what will he do now that Assad's forces are entering the town at the Kurds' request? Erdogan will no longer have an excuse to attack Manbij because the Kurds are leaving. It's all a win win win for the Assad government which has already recovered about three-quarters of its territory and has retained control of every major city. Trump effectively gave Erdogan carte blanche to do what he wanted in Syria when he told him in a phone call last week that he was withdrawing the US troops for good. But now the Turkish autocrat has to decide whether he wants to take on the Syrian army or just continue to pursue the Kurds wherever they go. He doesn't want them anywhere where they might try to declare an independent state. All of this is in the interests of Russia and Iran which will consolidate their gains and back Assad all the way. Provided some, if not all, of these protagonists continue to attack Isis in the northeast of Syria, then Trump's unfinished job of destroying Isis will be handed to other players. If that works, then fine. In truth, 2,000 US troops were never in a position to dominate territory in Syria. They were only there to help the Syrian Democratic Forces finish off Isis. That was their sole function. Trump must have realised that. So letting someone else do the last bit almost made sense. But only if Trump cares not a fig about what happens to Syria in the future and is indifferent to Russia and Iran gaining a political and strategic advantage in the region. And that is the only assumption than can be made after his announcement last week on the troop withdrawal. Some analysts have said that the Trump announcement was a disaster for Israel which will now be faced by a a rejuvinated Syria, an exultant Russia and an ever-deadly Iran across its borders. But Israel has shown again and again that it can defend itself, judging by the now regular airstrikes on Iranian arms and missile dumps in Syria. The withdrawal of 2,000 US soldiers from Syria is upsetting for them but the Israeli military will carry on doing what they have always done - bomb whatever they judge to be a threat to the safety and security of Israel.