Crown Prince bin Salman better watch out in Argentina

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has arrived in Buenos Aires and so far hasn't been arrested. Buenos Aires is hosting the G20 summit and Saudi Arabia is represented. But is MBS taking a calculated risk that the Argentinians wouldn't dare to arrest the most senior Saudi delegate and hold him in detention on the grounds that he is suspected of having a journalist murdered? The Khashoggi case will be like a Damocles sword above his head when the G20 summit starts on Friday. But he's probably safe from being manacled by the Argentine police. By no coincidence whatsoever, Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, has declared today that there is no direct (intelligence) reporting that shows MBS ordered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. In other words, of all the intelligence that has landed on Pompeo's desk - and he sees everything - there is no transcript of a telephone conversation or an email or text which says: "Hello, this is MBS here, I order you to kill that ....Khashoggi." Well, of course, even if he did order it he wouldn't have been so careless as to put it in writing let alone in a telephone call. So I'm sure Pompeo is being truthful. But he also knows that his former colleagues in the CIA made the broad assessment that in Saudi Arabia, a decision to send a team of assassins to grab Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and strangle him and dispose of his body could not have been made without the say-so of MBS. Ergo, MBS must have authorised the killing. But that's not the same as having a piece of damning intelligence in your hand - or Pompeo's hand - that points the finger directly and unequivocally at the crown prince. So, he's probably safe in Buenos Aires. But that doesn't mean everyone is going to go rushing up to shake his hand. Those who do will be noted!