Tuesday, 30 October 2018

The US goes to war with caravan of migrants

The Pentagon has effectively gone on a war footing to help the civil border authorities stop thousands of migrants from Central America illegally crossing the Mexican border into the US. Most of the 6,500 migrants - in two separate caravans - are still nearly 1,000 miles away from America's southwest border. But next week are the US midterm elections and sending armed troops to the border to show strength, determination and America-First principles will undoubtedly help Donald Trump and the Republican Party. There is no more controversial an issue in the US than immigration. So the deployment of 5,200 regular troops plus helicopters, transport aircraft, 22 miles of razor wire and military police will set the tone for the midterms, although the migrants themselves will not reach the border for weeks. Some might say it's a cynical exercise in political exploitation and I can't imagine Jim Mattis, the defence secretary, was happy signing the deployment order. The problem for the Trump administration and for the thousands of migrants heading for what they hope is a better life than back home is that when the the caravans do eventually arrive, there could be unpredictable consequences. There could be violent confrontations. Let us hope that no shots are fired. Of course it is possible that this grand military operation may turn out to be a waste of time and resources. The original caravan of migrants mostly from Honduras was 7,000-strong but has already dwindled to 3,500. By the time it reaches the US border it could be just in the hundreds which would be manageable without military firepower. However, the second group which consists of 3,000 migrants is currently at the Guatemala/Mexico border. The multi-group phenomenon is relatively new and this is what is scaring the White House. Trump will be thinking if this kind of mass migration is not stopped in its tracks, the US could be facing an increasing security challenge, just like Europe has been facing since the so-called Arab Spring when Germany's Angela Merkel, in a moment of extraordinary but foolish generosity, opened her arms to a million migrants. Her announcement yesterday that she will not stand again as Chancellor had more to do with that decision than anything else because she and her party have been losing popular support ever since.

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