Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Is Turkey with us or against us?

Turkey joined Nato in 1952 and has, until now, been a consistently reliable, strong and valuable western ally. As a Muslim country, it straddles the cultures of the west and east, and that was always a good thing in my view. Allowing Turkey to become an EU member has always been a trickier question because Turkey is not really seen as a European nation as such and at present fails to meet the required standards to become a member. Its human rghts record for example is a long way from meeting the EU's criteria. Under President Erdogan, especially the new or renewed Erdogan who has become increasingly autocratic since his reelection, Turkey is now about as far away from EU membership as Kazakhstan. But that's not the issue today. The problem right now is that the US and Turkey, for a long time a crucial relationship, are falling out in a disastrous way. It's not just about the detention of an American Christian pastor and the charges of terrorism made against him. It's about the fierce tariffs imposed by Trump, Turkey's willingness to consider buying a Russian anti-missile defence system and Erdogan's conviction that the US is behind an attempt to bring Turkey to its knees. Turkey's currency is in free fall. Erdogan is now so angry he is talkng of switching his alliance with the West and turnng to others, such as Russia. That, of course, would be bad for the US, for the West and, ultimately for Turkey. Erdogan and Trump are two tough individuals, like rival godfathers in a gang war. Autocratic leaders are bad for democracy. It's one thing to have an autocrat in Kazakhstan, but quite another to have one sitting in Ankara and spitting blood with Trump in DC. Sounds like it's time for grown-ups to take charge.

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