John Bolton, the new power behind the throne

HR McMaster became yesterday's man so quickly. When he was appointed national seurity adviser in February 2017, Donald Trump declared he was a man of integrity. All the big noises in Washington welcomed the appointment. McMaster, they said, would bring grown-up intellect and professionalism into the White House. Along with Jim Mattis at the Pentagon and John Kelly as WH chief of staff, suddenly it looked as if Trump had surrounded himself with significantly sensible advisers and organisers. But McMaster lasted only untl April this year. Mattis remains and Kelly remains, the latter by his fingertips. Now, judging by the rumours and insights doing the rounds in Washington, McMaster's successor, John Bolton, is the kingpin in the White House and the one Trump turns to first; Mattis is being pushed into the background and Kelly is... well is just hanging onto his job as best he can. Nothing surprises me about John Bolton. He is an all-or-nothing type of man. Compromise is not part of his lexicon. He says what he thinks and doesn't waver. Trump clearly likes that. I'm sure Trump still likes Mattis, he's a good soldier (well, Marine actually) and is firm and quiet and consistent with his advice. He wanted Trump to stick with the Iran nuclear deal because in his estimation, the 2015 agreement was better than the previous free-for-all, with Iran powering its way to a nuclear weapon. But Mattis was ignored. With Bolton advising the opposite, and Mike Pompeo at State not exactly taking the side of the Europeans, Trump made up his mind and refused to budge from his stated hatred of the Iran deal. Thus, Bolton won, although I don't believe Trump would have made any different decsion even if McMaster was still national security adviser. Nevertheless, Bolton is now The Man. From now on he will dictate the way forward if Trump looks like wavering. Bolton still has his ridiculous mooustache but I doubt anyone in the White House sniggers behind hs back. Bolton is a hawk with eyes in the back of his head. If Mattis tries in the future to persuade Trump to take a more cautious line on a particular foreign policy issue, I'm sure Bolton will quickly move in to put across his more radical view. With Bolton, and to a lesser extent, Mike Pompeo, at his side, Trump is going to get bolder and bolder. So watch out Iran, watch out China, watch out North Korea and watch out any feeble Europeans.