Friday, 6 April 2018

Russia playing a PR blinder

The way people get off crimes, if there's no absolute in-your-face evidence, like DNA, CCTV footage etc, is to deny deny deny and claim innocence innocence innonence and get angry if no one believes you. Thus, in the Novichok poisoning case, the accused - Russia - is doing all of those things and doing it spectacularly well. Even sending well wishes to the victims of the poisoning and asking to see the Skripal daughter for consular counselling. The PR machine in Moscow is working at full stretch. The next big hurdle for the British case against Moscow is the expected statement from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons which has been examining and analysing the nerve agent traces given to them by Porton Down. I seriously doubt that the OPCW experts will conclude that the material definitely came from a certain laboratory in a certain town in Russia and had all the hallmarks of Dr Boris *******, the well known Russian Novichok expert. If Porton Down, probably the best laboratory of its kind in the world, couldn't put its finger on the source of the Novichok, then it's highy unlikely the OPCW is going to be confident enough to say to the world: "J'accuse...." So Russia will survive once again and Moscow will turn whatever statement the organisation makes into a "We told you so, we're innocent" declaration and launch into another denunciation of the British government. Moscow has already warned that Britain is "playing with fire", a phrase filled with malice which is actually quite scary. If both Porton Down and the OPCW cannot be sure about the source of the nerve agent, the Russian PR machine will be opening the best Georgian champagne. It will be a dangerous moment for Theresa May. I hope she is ready with a counter argument. She has to remind the world of three vital points: One, a former RUSSIAN spy and double agent who betrayed his country to work for MI6, plus his daughter, were poisoned with a nerve agent only ever made by a state-owned laboratory. Two, Russia is the only known state which developed Novichok, whatever the Russian ambassador in London has said. Three, why would anyone else in the universe, even if they were able to get hold of some Novichok from somewhere - is there a black market in this stuff? - try and assassinate a former RUSSIAN spy and double agent who betrayed his country to work for MI6. This is a mixture of fact and circumstantial evidence but it sounds pretty valid to me. But unless there is other evidence, really good evidence emanating from the police investigation, no one, not even Boris Johnson, can categorically say, "We know it was the Russians because...." So it's down to basic police work. They HAVE to trace the journey the Novichok made before it got to the front door handle of the Skripal house in Salisbury. They HAVE to pinpoint who brought it in. They HAVE to discover who smeared or sprayed it on to the handle and when this occurred. They need a face or faces, they need a name or names, and they need the copper bottom link to the Kremlin. Good luck with that.

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