Monday, 1 January 2018

Could Trump intervene in Iran?

Judging by past experience, any intervention by the US in Iran, covert or overt, would be unwise and counter-productive. The CIA has a whole history of covert action in Iran and the fact that we have Mullahs in charge of the country and a fiercely rabid Revolutionary Guard muscling their way across the Middle East and suppressing democracy in Iran is the clearest proof that American interference does not end up with the right result for anyone, especially the long-suffering Iranian people. With the mass protests now exploding across Iran, there are murmurings in Washington about the need for Trump to exploit the seeds of revolution among the Iranian people. That would be a dangerous move. Relations between Tehran and Washington are aready at a low point and any suggestion of US intervention by the CIA or by some other agency would inflame, not calm, the growing disaffection with the clerics in Iran. Sometimes, it's best to sit back and watch and leave the Iranian people themselves to force change. If the Iranian regime ruthlessly strikes back at the protestors - an Iranian version of Tiananmen Sqare - then the world will condemn the regime and change could happen as a consequence. Any discovered involvement of the CIA would give the Tehran regime an excuse to blame the US for the protests and to give them justification for a programe of oppression. The CIA and MI6, Britain's secret intelligence service, were behind the overthrow of the democratically-elected Iranian prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, in 1953 when Eisenhower was the US president. The coup was mounted to ensure Britain and the West had control over Iran's oil. The operation, codenamed TP-Ajax, succeeded although almost nothing went to plan, and Mossadegh was replaced by a pro-Western puppet, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi who went on to rule Iran ruthlessly until his overthrow in the Islamic revolution of 1979 which no one in the West foresaw. So it all came round full circle. Since then, Tehran has been in the hands of an anti-West regime intent on building nuclear weapons. Intervention in 1953 worked for Western security interests for 26 years, but finally proved disastrous. Politicians in Washington advocating American interference today should read their history books. For once, President Trump, just watch and comment but keep away from plotting covert intervention.

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