Wednesday, 20 December 2017

Trump has done it!

There is no doubt about it. Trump's tax victory is massive. That's not the same as saying every American is going to benefit, because they won't. But to push such a complex piece of legislation through both houses of Congress, albeit with Republican majorities, is an achievement on some scale. I don't suppose there is anyone outside Congress, Trump included, who has had time to read all the small print, and if they do they might react with horror, but Trump's promise to introduce the biggest tax changes for at least three decades has now been fulfilled. The slashing of corporation tax from 35 per cent to 21 per cent should give business the biggest pre-Christmas boost ever, and provided the big bosses channel the extra cash into more jobs and better pay for the masses, Trump will be viewed in a different light by a lot of Americans who until now have woken up most mornings scared of what the hell their president is up to. I think it's a bit early to be sure the tax changes will really benefit the middle earners. The Democrats hate it and claim it will only help the wealthy. But the Democrats have failed to do much about America's tax system when they have been in power, so there is a bit of sour grapes here possibly. For Trump, he will make the most of the ceremony when he signs the tax reforms into law. Then let's see how it gets implemented and whether anyone, even with an accountancy degree, can really understand it. Obamacare was a small print nightmare and even though it is still law, Trump is slowly chipping away at it until it will be a greater mess than it was in the first place. In a free market economy like the US, it is extraordinary that corporation tax has been so high for so long. It was always going to make sense to bring it down from 35 per cent. To do this in his first year in office will give Trump a political momentum that might just carry him through the next three years, unless Robert Mueller finds the silver bullet that will bring him down. The Democrats and half the country will be praying for his downfall. But I predict the Mueller inquiry will not lead to impeachment of the president, let alone a charge of criminal wrongdoing. Trump is going to survive.

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