Big names in 2018

Making predictions is a fool's business but after a whole year of Trump, looking into the crystal ball for 2018 is unavoidable. Who are going to be the big names next year and why? I'll pick four straightaway: Trump of course, Vladimir Putin, Xi Zinping and Kim Jong-un. Almost no one else matters, even though some other names are going to feature a lot throughout the year but with much less impact. I select the Pope (leading the way on climate change), Theresa May (Brexit boring Brexit), Bibi Netanyahu (facing corruption charges), Emmanuel Macron (trying to reform the whole of Europe), Angela Merkel (for surviving), and Nicolas Maduro (for being the most hateful so-called leader on the planet). But back to the Big Four. Next year is going to be the year of action one way or the other re North Korea. Kim Jong-un will fire one intercontinental ballistic missile too many and Trump will think to himself, "that's it". Trump is going to make a lot of noise in 2018, much more than in 2017. He is going to deal with Kim Jong-un with some form of military response - not total shock and awe but a bit of Trump shock and awe to make the North Korean leader sit up and the rest of the world take sides. Putin and Zinping will join together in opposing any military action. In fact Putin and Zinping are going to become pretty friendly, each lined up against Trump. This will really anger Trump and will play a part in his decision to tell Jim Mattis, the US Defence Secretary, to give him three options. I reckon this will happen around August time. No one else in the world will support Trump because they will be so scared of the consequences of moving against North Korea. But it's probably true to say that Trump is the only leader with the balls to order a strike against Kim Jong-un. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, I'm as scared as everyone else at the prospect of a war, any type of war, on the Korean peninsula. But while previous US presidents have issued threats and ultimatums to Pyongyang, Trump may be the only one prepared to actually do what he is threatening to do. US military action against Kim's regime will not lead to total war. But it will bring about a massive restructuring of political alliances. Putin might come round to support Trump eventually but Xi Zinping will never forgive him. Never. And that will lead to a dangerous deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing. Happy New Year.