Assad wins

Isis may have been defeated in Syria but what about Syria itself? The situation is totally different from the political landscape in Iraq where Isis has also been vanquished. In Baghdad there is a recognised government and prime minister and the country is, relatively speaking, unified, although the Kurds, having played such a huge role in the defeat of Isis, have been thwarted from achieving their goal of an expanded independence in northern Iraq. Syria is still a political mess, with Bashar Assad "in power" in Damascus. But there is also a glorious hotch-potch of rival opposition groups who began this whole war in Syria to oust Assad, and then got caught up in the anti-Isis campaign. They will want their slice of the Syrian cake. The group formerly known as the Nusra Front with its affiliation to al-Qaeda, will also be eager to hang on to what they have managed to grab and occupy in the last four years. Putin reckons he has sorted out Syria's future, after his deal-making summit with the leaders of Iran and Turkey the other day, but who is he kidding? And what is Trump going to do to make sure that all the investment, military and financial which the US has ploughed into Syria over the last few years is not going to be wasted? Whatever happens, it seems likely that Assad will survive. He is looking increasingly confident these days, and with three such influential and powerful countries backing him, it's not surprising. Asad is not going to talk to the Americans. Why should he when he's got Putin, President Erdogan of Turkey and President Rouhani of Iran at his side? So, despite the appalling war crimes committed in the civil war, despite the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons to kill and injure civilians, Assad remains supreme. He's not going anywhere. I predict that Trump will go along with this, allowing Assad to stay in power but with the promise of elections at some time in the future and involvement in the reconstruction of Syrian cities blasted by bombs, artillery and suicide explosions. He will hope that a slice of the reconstruction action will help Washington to retain some influence. But I seriously doubt there will ever be a photograph in the future showing Trump, Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani all shaking hands and smiling to the cameras after an historic four-part agreement for Syria's future.