Isis leader alive and well

I never thought Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was dead. The Russians made great play about the intelligence they had received that they, the Russians, had killed him with a precision airstrike more than three months ago. Every newspaper in the world grabbed the story and wrote big headlines. Well, I'm sure the Russians were pretty well convinced but it was always going to be a risk to pronounce it in public. US intelligence was not exactly dismissive. They just said they had no evidence that Baghdadi had died. In other words, no body on display, and no chatter on signals intelligence that Isis had lost its leader. Assuming the latest video of Baghdadi calling on his supporters to continue fighting the fight is genuine and current, and not a clever techie job, then the Russians will be feeing somewhat chastened. Claiming successful hits from 15,000ft is a bit of a mug's game. Generally the Pentagon waits quite a long time before declaring the death of an Isis operator, even when the victim's supporters have acknowledged the death on their social media platforms. A multitude of checks have to be made but eventually they usually get the confirmation they are after. In Osama bin Laden's case, of course, it was all very different. The US Navy Seal climbing the stairs at bin Laden's compound in Pakistan saw the al-Qaeda leader peering out of his upstairs room. There was never any doubt that this was the man they were after. The codeword, "Geronimo" was signalled to the White House and up bobbed Barack Obama to give the news to the rest of us. It was Obama's most dramatic moment. When/if Baghdadi is killed, and there is positive confirmation, I doubt it will have such a momentous feel about it. His grand plan for an Islamic state caliphate has failed and most of his hierarchy has been eliminated. But it will still be big news when it happens. Every aspect of the American intelligence-gathering capabilities, from eavesdropping satellites to special forces, are hunting for him. Will there be another Geronimo moment? If it's the Americans who find and kill Baghdadi, Trump will surely give it the Hollywood touch when he announces it from the Rose Garden.