Trump avoids the threat of jail for four years

Donald Trump's overwhelming triumph at the polls guarantees him his freedom for four years. All the trials waiting in the wings will disappear, all the threats of imprisonment will vanish, all the fines and accusations and charges will be put back in the cupboard gathering dust while he reigns supreme as the president of the United States and commander-in-chief. In fact, it's pretty likely his Justice Secretary and Attorney General will get rid of all the charges, including the ones where he has already been convicted, so that when/if he leaves office in 2029, he will be a free man. Winning the election was his best and only way of relieving himself of all the charges he faced. It's a thunderous victory for him, especially since millions of good-thinking Americans with decent values thought it could never happen. They were all proved wrong because many more voters decided it was perfectly all right to elect a man facing multiple federal charges, most of them probably believing that it was all a put-up job by the Democrats to stop him becoming president. Today, Trump has got his own back. So beware all of his opponents. It's going to be a rough ride for them. Trump's inaugural speech when he takes over from Joe Biden on January 20 will tell us all what he has in mind. It won't be pleasant.

In the end it will be down to women voters in the US election

In this US election, more than in any other election in American history, it will be women who make the difference. How many women voters who normally vote Republican will turn against their leader because of his abortion views and his past sexist comments about women? That's the key. If a whole bunch of Republican women decide to vote for Kamala Harris because of her constantly repeated statements that women should be allowed to own their bodies without interference from the State, Donald Trump could be swept aside. It just might happen. Much will depend on what women voters do in the key battleground states. That's where it will truly count. For the first time I am beginning to think that this switch in loyalty WILL happen which means that Kamala Harris will win, possibly by a larger margin than all the polls are predicting. But if Republican women stay loyal to Trump, despite all the reasons not to, then Trump will probably win. So it's down to women, Which way will they go? The other key ingredient, of course, is that these women will be voting for a woman, voting for the first female president in the history of the United States. They turned against Hillary Clinton when she tried to be the first. But that now seems a long time ago. We are in 2024, and maybe these women voters will decide, yes it's time for the glass ceiling to be broken. Time for a female president. Fingers crossed.

The US election race is so close it could be dangerous

There is almost nothing in it. The polls, very rarely the most reliable of sources, think Kamala Harris is edging it but only by a point here and there, whereas Trump has probably got Pennsylvania under wraps, an absolutely key state. With a volatile election like this, the closeness of the race means there will be angry disputes up and down the country whoever wins. Nothing is going to be cut and dried. The only saving grace is that Trump is not the incumbent president, so if he starts knocking on the White House door if he has lost, no one will let him in. When he lost as the incumbent president in 2020, he just refused to accept defeat. There was even talk of the top military chiefs having to go and get him out of the White House. Trump believes beyond doubt that the nation's voters will put him back in the White House, and if Kamala wins, he will no doubt refuse to accept the result. He is a very very bad loser. But the chances are he will win by a tiny margin and he will then claim that actually he won by a very large margin. He loves playing with numbers. The only person celebrating in the UK will be Nigel Farage who genuinely believes that he should be appointed ambassador to the US if Trump wins. Tomorrow is a HUGE day. Good luck all American citizens praying for a Kamala miracle.

If Kamala Harris wins will the US celebrate?

It's an extraordinary question to have to ask. For intelligent, sensible people outside America looking in, there must a large element of astonishment that Donald Trump, convicted felon, accused manipulator of the January 6 attack on the Capitol, alleged violator of women and advocate of undemocratic politics, should even be considered as a potential president for the next four years. But the fact is, Trump attracts immense support. There are millions of Americans who want him and no one else but him to take charge of the United States. There is also a worrying scepticism and concern among Democrats that their candidate for the White House job is not up to it and is too liberal and wishy-washy to be the country's commander-in-chief. Kamala Harris is the non-Trump candidate, she is not the glowing standard bearer and super heroine of the Democratic party. She seems a really good person but this world today is so challenging and potentially dangerous, heading for God knows what, and even Trump haters are not convinced she is the right individual to lead the nation. So this is why, if Kamala wins, the nation won't necessarily go celebrating in the streets. In fact, there could be violent protests around the country by Trump supporters believing their man has been robbed for the second time. Kamala had only three months to convince her country that she has the right stuff to be president and I really don't think she has succeeded in that endeavour. If she wins on Tuesday she will seriously have to appoint the toughest and best-possible cabinet to advise her through the initial period of her presidency to persuade the American people and the rest of the world that she can do a lot better as president than she did as vice president and as the Democratic nominee.

More Iranian retaliation against Israel expected

Iran appears to have changed its mind. Instead of continuing to play down the Israeli airstrikes on October 26, Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader, has upped the rhetoric and threatened to strike back big time. In preparation for another onslaught of ballistic missiles from Iran, the Pentagon has ordered a bunch of extra warships and bombers to the Middle East, including B-52s. The warships are all armed with anti-missile defence systems which could help to shoot down what Iran throws at Israel. I'm not sure why the US has sent B-52s other than the fact they are terrific weapons platforms and will act as a deterrent, although I can't see Joe Biden approving a US attack on targets in Iran. The extra warships have been sent because the only aircraft carrier in the area, USS Abraham Lincoln, is now on its way home after a long deployment. So the tit-for-tat retaliatory strikes by Iran and Israel are going to continue, each time getting heavier and more dangerous. At some point this is going to end only one way. The Israelis will start attacking Iran's nuclear (weapons) facilities, and then it really will be all-out war, with the US involved.

Keep Joe Biden away from microphones

It may be too late, the damage is done. But in the last few days before the US election, it should surely be the priority for the Kamala Harris campaign to keep Joe Biden well away from any microphones or Video calls, or Zoom calls, or the phone. Best to lock him up surrounded by Secret Service agents and send in food and water. Because the chances of him saying something else that will screw Kamala's hopes of winning the election must be very very high. No disrespect to the president. But he is now more gaffe-prone than ever and if he wants his vice president to succeed him he should keep well away from everything for the next four days. That's all it is, just four days left. The trouble is, when you put a microphone in front of him and reporters gather round, ever eager to pick up anything of newsy interest, he more often than not will oblige. He said on several occasions he would go to Taiwan's aid if China invaded, even though the protocol is that the US recognises the one state of China and is not supposed to support Taiwan staying independent, although of course it does. Every time he said the US military would rush to Taiwan's aid, there was a diplomatic earthquake in China. No harm in that, but each time Biden said it, the White House and State Department had to clarify and say, no he didn't really say that. The garbage remark re Trump supporters (supporter's) will be remembered for ever. Especially by Kamala Harris if she loses on Tuesday.

Could Putin and Zelensky ever make a deal?

Warring parties often strike deals. Exchanges of prisoners of war, brief cessations of operations to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid, covert talks between respective intelligence services to map out possible ways forward, and tentative peace feelers. Since President Putin ordered thousands of troops across the border into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there have been no peace negotiations and no sign of meaningful compromise from either Moscow or Kyiv. And yet, after nearly three years of horrendous casualties and infrastructure destruction in Ukraine, preliminary talks are underway, according to the Financial Times, for a deal in which both sides would agree to stop or reduce attacks on energy installations. While it might seem a bizarre development, it’s now in Moscow’s interest as much as in Kyiv’s to end the continuous targeting of power plants. Ukraine has developed long-range attack drones which have effectively struck targets deep inside Russia, including oil refineries. From the beginning, Russian airstrikes have hit Ukraine’s power networks, knocking out about nine gigawatts of the country’s energy infrastructure. During the summer months, Russia bombed and destroyed half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said it was “the power equivalent of three Baltic nations”. With winter approaching, if that level of destruction continued, Ukraine’s population would inevitably face freezing months with daily power blackouts. Talks, sponsored and mediated by Qatar, took place in August but any progress towards some form of deal was scuppered when Ukrainian forces invaded the Kursk region in western Russia and seized a wide area of territory. Moscow pulled the plug on the talks. However, the FT quoted a diplomatic source as saying there were “very early talks” about restarting discussions on ending strikes on energy facilities. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was dismissive of the report, describing it as fake news. But Peskov has a habit of protesting too much. Something is going on. In similar fashion, the so-called grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, now aborted, was constructed through the intervention of Turkey and the United Nations. It was a deal which seemed unlikely at the time, allowing Ukraine to continue exporting its grain stocks by cargo ship along a 357-mile corridor across the Black Sea to the Bosphorus Strait. Moscow promised to provide safe passage. The deal which enabled Ukraine to return to near pre-war grain export levels of around 6.5 million tonnes a month, operated from 22 July 2022 to 17 July 2023. Prior to the agreement, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its deliberate targeting of the country’s grain stores, spiked global food prices and led to warnings of famine in Africa. Russia also temporarily halted its grain exports, and the combination raised fears of a world food crisis. Turkey which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea, hosted the talks that resolved the crisis. Since Russia scrapped the deal, Ukraine has cleverly adapted its export routes to avoid Russian attacks. Whether the reported preliminary talks on an energy infrastructure deal, originally initiated by the Russian and Ukrainian intelligence services, come to fruition, it does raise the question of whether back--channel negotiations might lead to something even more hopeful, such as ideas for bringing the war to an end. However, that would seem to be over-optimistic at present. Putin is going to be in no mood to do any deals with Ukraine’s President Zelensky while Ukrainian troops remain as an occupying force in Kursk. Indeed, thanks to his friend Kim Jong-un, several thousand North Korean troops are even now training in Russia to join the Russian counter-offensive units attempting to liberate the region. In the meantime, the European Union is doing its best to provide Ukraine with some of the energy supplies it requires to survive the winte. The current plan is for the EU to restore 2.5 gigawatts of energy capacity which is the equivalent of around 15 per cent of the country’s needs. However, about 80 per cent of Ukraine’s thermal plants (coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear) have been destroyed and a third of hydroelectric power is also out. So, even with the EU’s help, power supply is going to be restricted throughout the winter. Russia, too, has suffered from attacks on its energy infrastructure. Last month Ukrainian drone attacks hit the Moscow oil refinery and the Konakovo power station in the Tver Oblast which is one of the largest energy producers in central Russia. Kyiv has made it clear it intends to continue with such attacks with the aim of forcing Moscow to the negotiating table. The reported Qatar--sponsored talks could be the best hope for both Kyiv and Moscow to call a halt to this type of targeting. Then we will see if it leads to something more significant.