Tump gives Ukraine new intelligence gift

The war between Russia and Ukraine is about to change dramatically in Kyiv’s favour. President Trump has decided to help Kyiv target key energy installations inside Russia with long-range weapons by providing satellite imagery to guarantee precision strikes. Such a bold move, never considered appropriate or justified by the Biden administration, will take the battle further inside Russian territory, and potentially, cause catastrophic damage to President Putin’s war economy. The decision, reported in The Wall Street Journal, follows confirmation from Vice President JD Vance that Trump is also considering giving President Zelensky land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles. With a range of around 1,500 miles, Kyiv would possess one of America’s most successful combat weapon systems, capable of reaching Moscow from any point within Ukraine. Tomahawks, armed with conventional warheads, are normally associated with submarine-launched or ship-fired operations. But there is a ground-launched version developed for the US Army and Marine Corps which, if delivered to Ukraine, would add to Kyiv’s inventory of home-grown longe-range weapons which have already been used to target Russian oil refineries. Both the consideration of providing Tomahawks and the reported agreement to hand Kyiv intelligence of Russia’s strategic energy sites have raised the stakes beyond anything contemplated by Trump’s predecessor. President Biden was always wary of giving Ukraine’s President Zelensky the tools for striking deep inside Russia itself, concerned that it would provoke a dangerous escalation with Moscow. Even when he, belatedly, approved the dispatching of the US Army’s ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 190 miles, he imposed restrictions on their use if fired over the border into Russia. However, there were no limits placed on the use of US intelligence to help Ukraine pinpoint Russian troop positions, arms depots and tank movements inside Ukraine. US intelligence, both satellite images and electronic signals communications, was part of the package from the moment Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In the early days of the war, without this intelligence assistance, Ukraine would never have been able to achieve the battlefield successes which basically halted the Russian invasion force in its tracks. The most notable use of American intelligence during the first stages of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser, Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on April 14, 2022. US naval intelligence and satellite imagery provided the coordinates for the warship on patrol in the Black Sea, and Ukraine fired two domestically-built Neptune anti-ship missiles which fatally hit Moskva about 80 nautical miles off the port of Odessa. The Pentagon under the Biden administration had one particular reservation about the Ukrainian military’s use of US intelligence inside Ukraine itself. A number of top Russian commanders were killed and it was reported their precise location had been pinpointed by American satellites. However, the Pentagon said this wasn’t the case. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman at the time, said US intelligence would not have been provided to target individual Russian generals. Nevertheless, the role of intelligence in the more than three years of war has helped to balance out the superiority enjoyed by Russia in terms of both manpower and firepower. The CIA, the National Security Agency (NSA) and the full panoply of America’s intelligence apparatus have been intimately, though secretly, involved in guiding the Ukrainian military and providing advice on targeting policy, and early warning of Russian missile attacks and troop movements. In February last year The New York Times reported that Ukraine had built a special underground bunker, partly financed and equipped by the CIA, in which Ukrainian soldiers were able to track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between different Russian commanders and their units. It was also reported that the CIA helped to set up and support a dozen secret locations along the border with Russia from where Russian troop activity could be monitored. Now, Trump appears to have decided that the gloves should come off in terms of supplying Ukraine with intelligence, specifically aimed at striking Russia’s huge network of energy installations, such as refineries, oil pipelines and power stations. Putin is dependent on the sale of oil and natural gas to still-willing customers, such as China, India and Turkey, to fund the war with Ukraine. Trump dramatically reversed his view on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia when, after talking to Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, he declared that Kyiv could after all seize back all the territory lost to the Russian troops. He said Putin was in deep economic trouble. Trump’s decision to extend the gift of intelligence to Kyiv to cover Russia’s energy infrastructure will be a huge blow to Moscow and could potentially persuade Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to save his war economy from ruin. NB:MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTh: buy from Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones.

Tomahawks for Ukraine would be gloves off

Donald Trump says he is considering sending Tomhawk land-attack cruise missiles to Ukraine so they can target Russian facilities. This would be a major development, even bigger impact-wise than anything the US has provided in the war so far. It would also mean that US technicians would be needed to help the Ukrainian military fire them. Trump may back off this idea, knowing that Putin would see it as a provocation too far and could lead to a huge escalation. But it just might also force Putin to rethink because support for the war in Russia is dwindling fast, especially now that Ukraine is increasingly targetinbg Russian oil refineries and powqer plants inside Russia, causing long queues for petrol everywhere. Tomahawks have a range of well over 1,000 miles and would give Kyiv the chance to attack sites closer and closer to Moscow. It could be devastating and as they are low-flying cruise missiles as they approach the target, they would be more difficult to shoot down. Trump has effectively given up on doing a deal with Putin and has handed over the war and the West's support for Kyiv to the Europeans. Providing Tomahawks might be Trump's last gauntlet-throwing to force Putin to negotiate. However, judging by Putin's past responses to western weaponry arriving in Ukraine, he is more likely to take the gloves off and attack Ukraine with even more ferocity and send more and more drones and missiles across Nato borders. It's a dangerously pivotal moment.

Watch out overweight American top brass!

No beards, no bellies, no women, no slackers. The US military and especially the 800 high-ranking generals and admirals, are all now on notice that sloveliness is out and fighting warrior stuff is in. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence for War, is fed up with seeing overweight generals wandering around the corridors of the Pentagon. He wants them to get fit, do 100 press-ups a day and stop sitting at their desks stuffing themselves with burgers. It's all good fun and his address to the family of generals and admirals at the US Marine Corps base at Quantico in Virginia yesterday was greeted with total silence. My God, inwardly they must have been seething, except for the fat ones of course. They would have been looking around guiltily in case anyone had noticed their bulging bellies. In my time I have met a lot of American generals and admirals and the majority looked pretty fit. In fact the best of them, people like General David Petraeus and General Stanley McChrystal, were and are so lean and fit that they could outrun and outpush-up most soldiers half their age. Some of those who reach the top echelons of the US military do get broader in the beam when they reach their 50s and 60s, especially if they have desk jobs. But from now on they will have to adopt a different lifestyle, a different diet, and join the joggers every morning. It's going to be fun to watch. Hegseth was enjoying himself, especially as he has taken on a rigid fitness regime and looks in good physical shape. His commander-in-chief, however, could definitely lose a few pounds. He may be able to play golf but I can't see him making more than two or three press-ups. As for women and beards, Hegseth basically doesn't want either of them in the armed forces. Beards he sees as somehow degenerate for military personnel (NB Vice President JD Vance has a beard, Mr Secretary for War), and he doesn't think women could ever be strong enough to fight in combat. He's wrong but women from now on will face an even tougher challenge to get into combat units. I wish them well, to prove Hegseth wrong. Meanwhile, generals and admirals with bellies, you have your marching orders. Get rid of the bellies or resign.

Does Netanyahu really want Trump's peace plan for Gaza?

Benjamin Netanyahu shook Donald Trump's hand and smiled as the president announced his new 20-point peace plan for Gaza. So, everything was looking good! But no, not really. Netanyahu had to agree to the deal but he knows that it will never get past his most extreme conservative cabinet members who want Gaza to become an extension to the West Bank for Jewish settlers. Nor will Hamas leap at it because they will demand that all Israeli troops are withdrawn from Gaza and Netanyahu is never gong to agree to that. So, lots of optimistic welcome from around the world to the Trump deal but are they all really fooling themselves? This latest deal is an agglomeration of all the previous deals and since every one failed to bring the war to an end, it is pretty short odds that this 20-pointer will also go the same way. Or if it does work, eventually, it will be a long way off. Netanyahu is against a two-state solution, ie an indpendent state for Palestinians, but the Trump proposal hints at it, in order to keep the Arab nations happy. But there is nothing in the package that says it will definitely happen or how it will happen. One thing that does seem to have been dropped is Trump's idea of turning Gaza into a Middle East Riviera, with all the Palestinians told to leave and live somewhere else. That means the Palestinian inhabitants of what's left of Gaza will be allowed to stay, as the massive reconstruction programme gets underway. If this deal goes ahead, Netanyahu will not survive as Israeli leader.

Why is Trump so optimistic about a Gaza deal?

Everyone is talking about a peace settlement for Gaza but on the ground there is absolutely no evidence that either Israel or Hamas are ready to sign anything. Trump tells us that a lot of talking is going on behind the scenes between Israel, the US, Arab countries and Hamas to find the formula that has so far failed to materialise in nearly two years of war. JD Vance has joined those suggesting a deal might be in the offing but he wisely admits something could always go wrong at the last minute. Like Hamas saying no or Israel deciding to carry on until every single member of Hamas has been killed. No one for sure knows how many Hamas fighters have been killed but it must be close to 18,000 or perhaps even more. But that still means they have another 5,000-10,000 holding on to the remaining hostages and launching sporadic raids on Israel Defence Forces troops. Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be satisfied if that number of combatants are still free to attack Israel? I very much doubt it. So whatever deal is currently being discussed, the chances of it working out are slim at best. As for post-war Gaza, there are now so many ideas, none of which will inspire the Palestinians who want their own government and their own independence. One of the proposals is for Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, to run a temporary administration when the war finally stops. Blair is a class act and has been involved in Middle East peacemaking efforts for a long time. But I cannot imagine the Palestinian people in Gaza will settle for a Brit to run their lives. So, I fear the war is still a long way from ending.

Hundreds of generals and admirals ordered to attend Pentagon show

At this moment about 800 generals and admirals in the US military are preparing to leave their commands around the world and fly to Washington to attend a non-voluntary meeting on Tuesday with Donald Trump, their commander-in-chief, and the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, for what appears to be a planned rebranding tour-de-force. The cost of getting all these top-flight commanders to leave their posts and come to Washington has not been quantified but it will run into tens of thousands of dollars and probably hundreds of thousands of dollars. And for what? So that Hegseth and Trump can urge them all to plan more directly for war in the future and to get them to warn all their soldiers, marines, airmen/women and sailors to see themselves as warriors. It's not a new concept but clearly Hegseth, a former Fox News presenter, feels the military needs a kick up the backside to prepare themselves for whatever wars may turn up in the futue, whether it be against China, Russia, Iran or Venezuela. In between the lecturing from Trump and Hegseth at the gathering at Quantico in Virginia, it's going to be a helluva gossip occasion for all the three- and four-star men and women who will no doubt seize the opportunity to chat about what Trump really wants and what it might mean for their careers. There must be a degree of trepidation within the top ranks.

Will the small-boat arrivals ever stop?

The defining image of this decade for Britain will be the arrival across the English Channel of dozens of people packed into a small boat, hoping to come and live in this country. It happens every week, and in some weeks happens every day, and nothing, NOTHING the government says or does makes any difference. The boats still keep coming, sometimes, safely, if that's the right word, and sometimes disastrously with some of the boat passengers falling into the sea and drowning, often women and children. Everything the previous Conservative government and the present Labour government have tried to do to stop this nightmare has totally, utterly failed. Some of the so-called policies have been gimmicks, others have been morally repugnant. But still the boats come. Donald Trump said the British government should use the military. But no government is going to do that, first because it would look terrible around the world and secondly, the Royal Navy just isn't bigh enough to spend its time patrolling the English Channel. The current one-out and one-in idea, in which one illegal, undocumented migrant is flown out and one approved, documented migrant is allowed in, might work over time but it will take decades for it to make any difference. So, the idea is pretty crass. The "send 'em all to Rwanda" scheme proposed by the previous government was morally unpleasant and an unbelievable waste of taxpayers' money because no one actually went to Rwanda, and then Labour scrapped it anyway. Is there anyone anywhere who has a practical idea for stopping the small boats. If so, come forward, because the Labour government certainly doesn't.