Joe Biden's last throw of the presidential dice

President Biden’s decision to approve Ukraine’s “limited” use of the US Army’s long-range ATACMS missile system to attack targets deep inside Russia has transformed the battlefield dynamics in the near three-year war. It will also effectively give the green light to the UK and France to authorise Ukraine to fire the Franco-British air-launched cruise missile, known as Storm Shadow and Scalp, respectively, to hit Russian military sites across the border. Both the UK and France have been ready to give this permission for months but have been waiting for Biden to make up his mind about ATACMS. *Will Sir Keir Starmer and President Macron give Kyiv the authority? On the face of it, it should be a straightforward decision. Storm Shadow/Scalp has a range of up to 155 miles and would be a highly effective weapon to target key Russian bases and munitions storage sites, all vital for President Putin’s war against Ukraine. The Labour government has given every indication that it wants Storm Shadow to be available for Ukraine over the border in Russia. The weapon system has been effective against Russian targets inside Ukraine, especially in Moscow-annexed Crimea. While there is little doubt that Starmer will want to join Biden in offering to let Kyiv use these longer-range weapons to hit Russia where it will really hurt, there is one new factor which will have to be taken into account. Biden has just two months left of his presidency. From January 20, Donald Trump will be in the White House, and the Starmer government has to make a careful strategic decision. Does the prime minister go along with Biden’s sudden reversal in policy vis a vis the use of ATACMS inside Russia, or hedge his bets and find a half-way measure so as not to upset the man with whom he will need to nurture a good working relationship over the next four years? Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants to wrap up the war in Ukraine as soon as he gets into power in order to call a halt to the billions of dollars of American weapons flowing for ever into Ukraine. He plans to end the war with a negotiated settlement between Putin and President Zelensky. Would Trump consider a UK decision to end restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow as likely to persuade Putin to come to the negotiating table or just ramp up the war to a more dangerous level? *Is the answer to give Zelensky partial permission to use Storm Shadow against targets inside Russia? According to today’s media reports, Biden has already done this by emphasising the “limited” use of ATACMS inside Russia. Biden has in mind Kyiv using the 190-mile-range ATACMS to help Ukraine defend against the imminently-expected counter-offensive by Russian troops, backed by 10,000 North Korea soldiers, to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region of western Russia. Ukrainian troops crossed the Russian border into the Kursk province in August and seized 1,000 square kilometres of territory. The aim was to give Kyiv extra leverage in the event of a negotiated settlement with Moscow to end the war. In a move, seen in Washington and in London as a dangerous and escalatory decision by Putin, the North Korean troops have been under training for weeks in Russia in order to play a role in the planned counter-offensive in Kursk. Thousands more North Koreans are said to be ready and waiting to join the Russian side. Starmer could follow Biden’s lead and restrict the use of Storm Shadow to Russian targets in and around Kursk, or he could give free reign to Zelensky to deploy Storm Shadow as and where he sees fit. This would be more risky but would be welcomed by the Ukrainian leader who has been pleading to use western-supplied longer-range weapons inside Russia for more than a year. *Would attacks by ATACMS and Storm Shadow inside Russia make a huge difference, in Kyiv’s favour? The war has been going on since February 24, 2022 and during that time there have been a number of significant moments in terms of the West’s upgrading of weapon systems. They have included the decision to send tanks to Ukraine, M1A1 Abrams tanks from the US, Challenger 2s from the UK, Leopard 2s from Germany, among others, as well as F-16 fighter aircraft from Europe, and ATACMS. Zelensky has welcomed every decision but has admitted his disappointment over the delay in sending the equipment which he felt would make a difference against Russian forces. ATACMS has been used already inside Russia but Biden stipulated that they could only be fired on Russian airbases just over the border from where Moscow was launching bombers with cruise missiles against Ukrainian towns and cities. All the upgraded weapon systems sent to Ukraine have helped Kyiv to carry out decisive strikes against Russian positions in eastern Ukraine and ammunition sites. But none of them have so far made such a difference that Ukraine can be said to be heading towards victory against Russia. In fact, the opposite is the case. Russian troops have been making advances in eastern provinces, and Putin has increased the level of missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly power plants. Permission to deploy ATACMS, and Storm Shadow if the Starmer government agrees, against targets in Russia would not in itself change the battlefield landscape. This is partly because Russia has already taken steps to move back its bombers and other aircraft from the border with Ukraine to keep them out of harm’s way. This has not weakened Putin’s ability to attack Ukraine because Russian air-launched cruise missiles have ranges from 340 miles up to 2,800 miles. However, Kyiv has now been engaged in attacks inside Russia with long-range drones for more than a year, reaching as far as the outskirts of Moscow. While many have been shot down, some have got through, and drone debris has added to the damage to buildings which have caused anger and fear among the Russian communities affected. With ATACMS and Storm Shadow added to his inventory for attacks inside Russia, Zelensky and his military commanders would have the firepower to cause much greater damage, and, symbolically, to drive home to the Russian people that their leader’s war in Ukraine is putting their own lives and livelihoods at grave risk. *How might Putin respond to the Biden and expected UK/French decision giving permission to Zelensky to attack Russia? Putin has in the past warned that any such move by the West would effectively mean Russia was at war with Nato. However, for Putin, too, the political circumstances have now changed. With Trump back in the White House in two months, he has every reason to hope that the new US president will pull out the stops to get a negotiated settlement which would tend to favour his own strategy. In other words, he would get to keep all the territory seized and occupied by Russian troops which amounts to about 20 per cent of Ukrainian sovereignty. According to reported Trump ideas to end the war, Putin would also receive reassurance that Nato membership for Ukraine would be off the table, at least for 20 years. So, it wouldn’t necessarily be in Putin’s interest to counter the ATACMS decision with massive retaliation, possibly hitting targets close to or linked to any Nato countries in the region. As for turning to tactical nuclear weapons to hit Ukraine, that would surely be a gamble too far. He might get support from Kim Jong un, the North Korean leader who is now firmly allied militarily and strategically to Putin, the rest of the world’s leaders, notably China’s President Xi Zinping, and the whole of Nato, would unite in condemnation. Putin’s hopes of a favourable settlement brokered by the new Trump administration would be scuppered.

Biden's late late missile decision

Talk about leaving it to nearly the last possible moment. Poor old Zelensky in Kyiv has been bashing Joe Biden's ears for months, if not years, to let him have and use long-range weapons to hit Russian targets deep inside Russia only to have the US president shaking his head wearily from side to side and telling him, "You can have the weapons but you can't use them over the border in Russia". Now after no no no, Biden has decided to say yes yes yes to launching the 190-mile-range ATACMS rockets at targets inside Russia. Biden has eight weeks left of his presidency and it seems like a parting shot at Putin, take that, Vlad. Biden and his officials have tried to suggest that what drove the decision at last was the presence of 10,000 North Korean soldiers fighting alongside their Russian comrades to force the Ukrainian troops currently occupying the western Russian province of Kursk back over the border. But, to be honest, I really don't see why this bizarre move by Putin and Kim Jong un is reason to announce a major change of mind and policy in Washington which, until now, was based on Biden's obsession with not escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine into a war between Russia and the whole of Nato. The North Koreans have no combat experience and can be finished off without too much trouble with directly-targeting artillery and tank shells. What will ATACMS rockets do to the North Koreans which a bit of good infantry and armour manoeuvring could do? But it's Biden's last throw before exiting the White House and he obviously wanted to show Zelensky that he would back him all the way to his last minute in the White House. Was it a sensible move? We will see how Putin responds. One person who is not happy about it is Donald Trump who wants to end the war altogether on Day One in the Oval Office. The ATACMS decision by Biden could complicate that.

Trouble for Britain's Eurofighter Typhoon combat fighter

Britain’s fighter jets are running missions into Syria, dropping bombs on the Houthis in Yemen, patrolling over Estonia, Lithuania and Romania, close to Ukraine, and guarding our shores from interloping Russian bombers. And yet, the Typhoon final-assembly production line at Warton in Preston has effectively come to a halt. There are no new orders from the Ministry of Defence, and there is a battle going on between Typhoon supporters and those who want Britain’s military to have more American Lockheed Martin F-35 aircraft instead. The government is saying nothing because there is a strategic defence review underway. It’s an old, old story, rehearsed so many times in the past. Do you buy British/European military aircraft to save jobs, maintain technical skills and boost the economy, or give in to the salesmen from the giant US defence companies and opt for the American alternative? For the Labour government, desperate to prove it can generate growth in the economy (no sign of that yet) the answer should be straightforward: go British and save jobs. But defence procurement has never been simple, especially when embroiled in politics. The question mark over the future production of Typhoons at Warton arose this week when Steve McGuinness, a member of the Unite trade union executive council, reported in a letter to MPs on the Defence Committee: ‘As it stands, there are currently no Typhoons being final-assembled at the Warton site and no orders for future aircraft.’ ‘Essentially, production has stopped for British-built Typhoon aircraft,’ he wrote. He added: ‘We are becoming increasingly concerned with reports that the Typhoons being retired from active RAF service are to be replaced with American-built F-35 aircraft. This would be a hammer blow to the British aircraft industry and potentially could end the design, manufacture and assembly of fast jets in this country, seriously damaging our sovereign capability.’ The warning couldn’t have come at a worst time. On 3 and 4 December, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar which already has one squadron of Typhoons, will be in the UK for a state visit, with every expectation, or at least hope, that he will arrive with a new order for the jet aircraft. If the UK government fails to order more Typhoons for the RAF, how will that impact on the Emir’s strategic thinking about developing his nation’s air force? The Typhoon, which first came into service in 2003, was developed by a European consortium consisting of the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain. Production arrangements are a mix-and-match process, with each nation partner contributing. Airbus Germany supplies the centre fuselage section, Airbus Spain the right wing, BAE Systems the front fuselage, the fin and, together with Leonardo from Italy, the rear fuselage. Leonardo also produces the left wing. The twin engines are built by a consortium of European companies which includes Rolls-Royce. There are four final assembly lines. BAE and Leonardo produce the aircraft at Warton in Lancashire. It’s a huge and complex production extravaganza, securing 100,000 jobs in Europe, with 25,000 of them in the UK. It involves 400 companies. With a predicted service life into the 2060s, new orders are crucial to keep the production lines moving. So far, the Typhoon has been a success story. Apart from purchases by the members of the consortium (680 aircraft), orders have also come from Austria (15), Qatar (24), Saudi Arabia (72), Kuwait (28) and Oman (12). Part of the reason for the high order numbers is that any breakthroughs in avionics and other technical advances have been incorporated as upgrades to the base model, ensuring over and over the Typhoon’s capability against potential adversarial air forces. The RAF ordered three tranches of Typhoons, a total of 160, the initial ones only air-defence versions, but later also ground-attack models. But the last order by the RAF was placed in 2009. There is a fourth tranche available which Germany has already ordered. At present the UK is the only member of the consortium with no new order for Typhoon jets. The Typhoon consortium faces hot competition, principally with the US F-35 and the French Rafale. Saudi Arabia, for example, which spent billions of dollars on the Tornado fighter jet and then on Typhoons, as well as US aircraft, is now considering buying 54 Rafales. However, this is not necessarily bad news for Typhoon. As Paul Beaver, veteran defence analyst and aviation historian, pointed out: ‘Saudi Arabia always hedges its bets. They’ll buy more Typhoons.’ Beaver is a strong Typhoon advocate and unfavourably compares the European jet with the F-35. ‘The F-35 only has a short range. Its time to target in air defence operations is five minutes less than a Spitfire in the 1940s [in other words, it runs out of fuel rapidly],’ he said. ‘It doesn’t have a lot of legs, so it needs tanking [air refuelling] and yet half of the RAF want more F-35s as opposed to buying additional Typhoons,’ he said. The future of the Typhoon for the RAF is all tied in with the next generation of combat aircraft, now being studied in a project with Japan and Italy called the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). The programme is focusing on a sixth generation stealth fighter known as Tempest (which will replace Typhoon), an unmanned combat air vehicle called Loyal Wingman and some other autonomous platforms. The Eurofighter Typhoon is not a stealth fighter, although special materials were incorporated which make it hard to identify. Only 15 per cent of the aircraft is metal; the rest is made up of carbon fibre and other non-metal materials. The government has yet to make a long-term commitment to the GCAP programme, which leaves Tempest somewhat in the air, unless the defence review recommends the go ahead. Steve McGuiness was adamant in his letter to the defence committee in saying that the government should urgently commit to ordering a squadron of 24 more Typhoons while the review is underway. ‘A domestic order will not only fulfil a military requirement for the RAF in these unstable times but will also ensure that vital skills required to build the next generation aircraft [Tempest] are retained at Warton,’ he wrote. ‘Without a domestic order for Typhoon there will be no GCAP due to the loss of the skills necessary to build and fly aircraft.’ Staying in the business of building domestically-produced fighter aircraft is an immense investment, one that George Robertson, former Labour defence secretary and Nato secretary-general, and his team producing the defence review will be pondering over for the next few months. They’ll know the importance of Britain maintaining an industry capable of producing the most advanced fighter aircraft – particularly when two potential adversaries, Russia and China, are continuing to research and develop weapons platforms aimed at overcoming the West’s perceived superiority in military technology. China recently unveiled its own Shenyang J-35A fighter. It has striking similarities to the US F-35 joint strike fighter, although it could never be described as a direct copy. It was shown this week at the Zhuhai airshow in the southern province of Guangdong. This means China now has two fifth-generation stealth fighters – the J-35A and J-20 – making it only the second country in the world to have two such technologically advanced aircraft. The US has the F-35 and F-22. Russia has only one stealth fighter, the Sukhoi Su-57, but is developing a second called the Su-75 Checkmate.

Zelensky confident the war will come to an end next year

I don't know wnat Donald Trump told Zelensky over the phone after he had won the election. But it seems to have given the Ukrainian leader the confidence to say that under Trump the war with Russia will end sooner. He must mean by that that he has come round to the view that a negotiated end to the war is the only way forward and that he may have to make some significant concessions to Moscow. But if Moscow is allowed to keep every square foot of Ukrainian territory it has seized what on earth was this defence against Russia about? What was the US-led coalition for Kyiv all abou if Moscow is to get what it wanted? OK, Putin really wanted to crush the whole of Ukraine and set up a puppet leader in Kyiv and he failed in that endeavour. But basically, he failed BEFORE the US-led coaliton started pouring weapons into the country. Putin's abject failure to seize Kyiv at the beginning meant it was always going to be a slow, slow war with mass casualties. And that is exactly what has happened in the last near-three years. So will Zelensky now welcome Trump's intervention and go for whatever Moscow agrees to? It looks like it. Then what will the hundreds of thousands of family members of those Ukrainians killed and injured in the war say to their leader. Was this mighty sacrifice worth it? What have we gained? And might it happen all over again?

Will the Senate confirm Matt Gaetz or Robert F Kennedy?

Of all the cabinet selections announced by Donald Trump, president-elect, that of Matt Gaetz as attorney general and Robert F Kennedy as health secretary are the most controversial and most quixotic. They could both have a really tough time when their confirmation hearings take place in the Senate, even though the Republicans have the majority. Gaetz who was a congressman representing Florida before he resigned this week following Trump's nomination for the attorney general job, was under investigation by the House of Representatives for sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and misuse of campaign funds. But as House ethics investigations can only deal with members, it has effectively come to an end. A very neat coincidence. Kevin McCarthy, the former Republican Speaker of the House, has predicted the Senate won’t confirm Gaetz. It was Gaetz who led the successful move to oust McCarthy as Speaker in October last year. However, Trump chose the controversial figure because he wanted an attorney general who would overhaul the justice department and root out what he believed to be corruption in the justice system. The president-elect will not take kindly to any attempt by Republican members of the Senate who join Democrats to oppose the Gaetz appointment. Likewise, there could be trouble for Trump with his nomination of Robert Kennedy, an avowed opponent of Covid vaccinations. But, as with Gaetz at the justice department, Trump expects Kennedy to bring big changes at the health department. The Senate hearings for both these gentlemen are going to be fiery.

The Trump-Biden show

One of the more bizarre events of the week was Donald Trump and Joe Biden sitting together in the White House and being nice to each other. It's called tradition and protocol but these two guys have, until now, been going hammer and tongs at each other. Biden said Trump was not worthy of becoming president and Trump said old Joe was a walking disaster, unable to match his mental faculties with the rest of his body. All good stuff in the nasty political world that Trump alluded to while reporters and photographers were allowed in the room before the two men got down to a serious chat. But what did they chat about? How to solve the wars in the Middle East? How to help Ukraine beat Russia? How to keep China in check? What the hell to do about Kim Jong-un? How to stifle the ayatollahs in Iran? I suspect that whatever thoughts Biden may have had, Trump didn't bother to listen. He has his own ideas and doesn't think Biden achieved much, if anything, during his four years. Certainly, the quotes the reporters got from the brief seconds they were in the room were pretty banal. Trump was cordial and Biden said all the stuff he was supposed to say according to the script he was given. Like how he promised a smooth transition etc. Trump who didn't want anything smooth when he lost to Biden in 2020, bit his tongue and said how grateful he was. It was all wonderful Alice in Wonderland stuff. Just wait for Trump's inauguration speech when he tears into the Biden administration and declares MAGA for ever.

Trump's extraordinary choice for Defence Secretary

Well, the polls were all wrong about Kamala Harris winning the election. Now all the experts predicting who might become Donald Trump's defence secretary have also been proved hopelessly wrong. Instead of going for a so-called defence heavyweight or at least someone with a huge management experience, Trump has picked out a handsome Fox News host and presenter who certainly looks the part - a younger version of that other glamour boy defence secretary, the late Donald Rumsfeld - but has no knowledge of or experience in masterminding any sort of business, let alone one of the largest organisations in the universe. Pete Hegseth did his stuff for America as a soldier, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, so he knows about military matters but he ain't no general. It's going to be a huge learning curve for him and perhaps an even bigger learning curve for the huge manpower machine, otherwise known as the Pentagon. Good luck to him and good luck to everyone who works in the second largest office building in the world.