Britain's strategic defence review is a hollow plan without the right cash

The Labour government's ambitious strategic defence review publishd yesterday was full of bold talk and fancy phrases that when analysed sound like they were written by someone well-versed in the gobbledigook of Whitehallese lingo. For me, the stand-out fiugure was the promise by the government to increase the size of the regular army from its current figure of around 70,000 to 75,000 by 2034. That pretty much sums up the state of our armed forces today. An army of 75,000 in the next nine years is not going to put off people like Vladimir Putin or any foreign leader who fancies his chances to grab a bit of Britain's diminished empire around the globe. Ok, the review is also full of dreamy talk of drones and other unmanned vehicles and super hi-techness and a dozen nuclear-powered submarines. But where is the money going to come from? The hoped-for 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence won't be enough, not for the long term. The aspirational three per cent ain't going to happen for years and as for the Naop secretary general's wish for all alliance members to increase their spending to 3.5 per cent or even five per cent of GDP, how can the UK agree to that when it's struggling to reach 2.5 per cent? Of course, there is only way out and that's to increase income tax by one or two percentage points. But the Labour government "promised" in its manifesto that it wouldn't raise income tax. Ever. This promise will have to be cast aside, and very soon. Then the popularity of the governemnt is going to sink. It's a hard road ahead for this country and for this government. The strategic defence review could end up just being 140 odd pages of unfulfillable wish lists.

Ukraine's attack on Russian bombers is a massive turning-point in the war

Carried outwith precision and daring, Ukraine's security forces have damaged or destroyed dozens of Russia's strategic bombers inside Russia, depending on whether you believe Kyiv's claims or Moscow's downplaying statements. Whatever is the full truth, there is no question that Ukraine has dealt a huge blow to Russia's military and to Putin's confidence. In a covert operation codenamed Spider's Web, 117 drones were launched against Russian strategic bombers in five different bases, allegedly attacking 34 per cent of Moscow's long-range cruise-missile-armed aircraft. Not from a long range but from close up, with the drones fired automatically from trucks nearby. It's a staggering achievement and it will make Putin realise that all his treasured military aircraft parked in the open air on bases without hangers to keep them safe, will now be vulnerable to Ukrainian attack. It's a turning point so massive that I believe Putin will be forced to take drastic action to try and show that he is still winning the war. Could he use tactical nukes against Ukraine? He will be sorely tempted. If he does, then the war will spread to Nato. This is such a dire thought that I hardly dare put it into print. But far from seeking an end to the war, Putin is going to accelerate and expand the conflict. He has built a war economy and is producing so many tanks that he will want to use them. The promise by Sir Keir Starmer today to start converting Britain into war-readiness sounds bold but perhaps too late. Al the things he has promised, such as more nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines, will take years. Putin might make his move well before then.

What does Pete Hegseth mean by "imminent"?

Talking to a bunch of top people in the foreign and security policy business in Singapore, Pete Hegseth, the Trumpite US defence secretary, warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan was "imminent". What does he mean by "imminent"? The definition of imminent is "likely to happen at any moment" and is generally accepted to mean that whatever it is is on the very point of occurring. Like, a person's death is "imminent", ie he has hours to live. So is that what Hegseth meant? That China is literally poised to invade Taiwan, like tomorrow or the next day at the latest? Surely not. I don't think so. If it was true, there would be signs of a massive build-up of PLA warships, amphibious craft, fighter jets, ballistic missiles all turned in the direction of Taiwan and so on. But there is no sign or any intelligence of this going on. Nor do I think Beijing is actually ready for an invasion of Taiwan. Politically, Xi Zinping might just risk it in the belief that Trump won't bother to retaliate by defending Taiwan, but, militarily, the PLA needs more time for rehearsals. They've got until 2027 when Xi said Taiwan will be back under the Beijing fold whether by diplomacy or force. So, not imminent then, not tomorrow or next week or even next month. Hegseth was stirring it up, I guess, and he certainly did that with Beijing which warned him to stop interfering.

Joe Biden has no regrets

Poor old Joe, as Donald Trump calls him, he does seem to be a bit in cloud cuckoo land at the moment. In an interview, Biden says he has no regrets about standing for reelection and then dropping out with only three months left of the presidential campaign. Je ne regrette rien. Well, I can tell you who does have regrets, Kamala Harris and the whole Democratic party. Biden is convinced that it wouldn't have made any difference even if he had dropped out much earlier or not stood for reelection at all which doesn't say much for his opinion of Kamala Harris whom, after all, he chose to be his running mate. Does that mean Biden thinks Trump was on an unbeatable path to the White House. If so, why did he say repeatedly that he was the only one in the Democratic party who could beat Trump - for the second time. To say he has no regrets is a bit of slap in the face for the Democrats who now have four years of being shoved into the background and with probably little hope of winning the 2028 election. At some point, Biden will regret that if nothing else.

How has Hamas survived this long?

Since the October 7, 2023 atrocity when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and captured 250, the terror organisation has suffered a huge death toll at the hands of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) - perhaps 17,000 kiled - and have lost nearly all of their top commanders. And yet, somehow, Hamas still survives both as a fighting force and as rulers of Gaza. How is this possible when Israel has the military power to annihilate them? It's yet another golden rule learnt by the superior of two military forces, that might and firepower don't necessarily bring victory. The Taleban survived against the huge superiority of the US-led coalition forces over 20 years because it was their territory, they knew where to be, where to hide, and how to fight a superior force. The same has been the case with Hamas versus Israel. Hamas still have their underground tunnels and bunkers, they have the remaining Palestinian population to hide amongst and when their commanders have been killed - the latest one killed this week - they bring on new ones. Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Hamas once and for all. I don't think the IDF are ever going to be able to achieve his objective.

Putin's summer offensive in Ukraine has begun

While Donald Trump seeths with frustration over Putin's failure to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, and Europe ponders whether it will be on its own supporting Kyiv, the Russian leader is just getting on with the task of mounting a new offensive. About 50,000 Russian troops are gathered on the northern border of Ukraine and seem poised to try and seize control of the whole of the Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine. They may not succeed because the Ukrainian forces are wise to what he is up to and will no doubt do their best to target the incoming troops. But what the summer offensive tells us more than anything is that Putin is not remotely interested in a ceasefire or reaching a peace settlement and that at least for the next few months he will order his troops to grab as much territory as possible. The general view is that this is his way of gaining leverage if and when settlement talks begin. But I don't think this is the case any more. I think Putin has decided that he no longer has to fear what Trump will do, if he ever did, and that he's prepared to screw over Trump and pursue his war aims whatever the US president does or says. Trump has claimed he doesn't understand what the crazy Putin is doing, especially after their nice two-hour chat on the phone which gave Trump some hope that his personal relationship with the Moscow leader would be critical in ending the war. But while Putin is obviously prepared to play along with Trump, he is not really listening. The gathering of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian northern border shows he is getting a second wind. He is ready for a long war.

Nobody knows what to do with Ukraine

Attempts to end the war in Ukraine have failed beyond hope. So now what? Nobody really knows what to do and how to bring this appalling conflict to a close. Donald Trump was the most confident that he could do it but his efforts have come to nothing. Europe has stuck with Kyiv and have kept sending arms and making promises, but, basically, the UK and the whole of Europe desperately want it all to end so that they can spend money on other things, like defence and welfare and health and education and poor roads. The one person who knows all of this and is exploiting it is, of course, Vladimir Putin. He is just winning, winning, winning. Europe now apparently has authorised Zelensky to use his donated long-range missiles to hit inside Russia. So, in the next few weeks, watch out for a huge increase in attacks from Ukraine into Russia, possibly into Moscow itself. This will exacerbate and make more dangerous the war between these two countries. It might make Europe feel good and it will certainly make Zelensky happy, but will it help to bring the war to a negotiated end? I fear not. It will just make Putin angrier and more determined to crush Ukraine. And so the war will go and on. Nobody, either in the US or Europe knows what steps to take next because all efforts to forge a ceasefire, let alone to sign a peace settlement, have fallen on deaf ears in Moscow. Putin is happy to carry on and watch the US and Europe throw up their hands in dismay and frustration.