Trump welcomes rebel Syrian leader with a no-sanctions gift

President Donald Trump was in a generous mood on the first day of his Middle East diplomatic tour, announcing the lifting of sanctions against Syria and offering a similar gesture to Iran, though with strict conditions. The decision to end sanctions on Syria came as a surprise and was greeted with applause by his audience in Riyadh. Trump said he had been asked by the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey to consider lifting sanctions to help the new government in Damascus which took over after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad on 8 December last year. To underline the changed strategy by the Trump administration, the US president will meet with President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new Syrian leader, in Saudi Arabia today. It will be a dramatically symbolic meeting for the Syrian president who seized control of Damascus last year at the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously linked to al-Qaeda and designated by Washington as a terrorist organisation. Since taking power, al-Sharaa has been wooing western leaders and international institutions to give him a chance to bring stability and peace to a country that had been torn by civil war for t14 years under Assad, now living in exile in Moscow. Today in Riyadh he won his biggest scalp, the president of the United States who reversed Washington’s policy at a stroke. Although Syria’s future still remains uncertain and unpredictable, because there are so many competing political and militia groups, Trump’s backing will be a prize he can take back to Damascus to cement his leadership status in the country. Syria has been one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, although since al-Sharaa’s seizure of power in Damascus, some of the sanctions have already been eased. In February the European Union suspended certain economic sanctions to help with the development of democracy in the country. President Erdogan of Turkey which is now the dominant foreign power supporting al-Sharaa, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, played the crucial role in persuading Trump to drop sanctions against Syria. Trump said Erdogan had called him the other day to end sanctions. Giving his reasoning for lifting sanctions, Trump said:”There is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilising the country and keeping peace.” Iran which was the dominating power in Syria when al-Assad was president, was given an option by Trump during his speech in Riyadh. He offered a “new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future”. But he warned that Tehran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. “The time is right now for them to choose,” he said. There are currently high-level talks underway between the US and Iran over the Tehran regime’s nuclear programme. Trump warned that “things are happening at a very fast pace, so they have to make their move right now”. He highlighted Iran’s “destructive” involvement in causing “unthinkable suffering in Syria, Lebanon. Gaza. Iraq, Yemen and beyond”. The speech was a tour de force in Trump-style foreign policy-making. He also raised his hopes of one day persuading Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords, the 2020 agreement he brokered in which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, two of Saudi Arabia’s neighbours, established diplomatic relations with Israel. This vision, however, was greeted with stoney silence. The concept is unpopular in Saudi Arabia and rejected by the Saudi leadership until the war in Gaza comes to an end and an independent Palestinian state is created. Trump acknowledged the doubts in Saudi minds. “You’ll do it in your own time, and that’s what I want and that’s what you want,” he said. Trump’s first day of his four-day Middle East tour, which will include visits to the UAE and Qatar, was notable for its warmth towards Mohammed bin Salman. Trump made frequent remarks praising the Crown Prince for transforming Riyadh into a major global business and technology capital. He also said “Mohammed” was his friend. His praise was in remarkable contrast to the views of his predecessor President Joe Biden who had frosty relations with the Crown Prince whom he accused of being responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi government. Khashoggi was killed and dismembered by Saudi agents inside the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul in October, 2018.

Why Hamas released the last surviving American hostage in Gaza

The last surviving American hostage held by Hamas has been released, coinciding with the arrival today of President Trump in the Middle East. The timing could not be more significant. Previous attempts to negotiate the release of Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old Israeli-American soldier from an elite army unit, failed despite high-level talks in Qatar. However, Hamas, not a terror organisation known for its nuanced approach to diplomacy, clearly realised that with Trump in the region, the “gesture of good will” might pay additional dividends. Alexander was serving on the border with Gaza on 7 October 2023 when Hamas gunmen arrived in force and killed 1,200 Israelis and other nationals and seized 251 hostages. The young soldier was one of 59 hostages left to be released, only 24 of whom are thought to be still alive. Four other American hostages are believed to be dead. Alexander, born in Tel Aviv but raised in New Jersey,was held in Gaza for 583 days. Trump who is due to land in Saudia Arabia tomorrow as part of a Middle East trip that will include visits to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates but not Israel, described the freedom for Alexander as “monumental” and said it was “a step taken in good faith”. The decision by Hamas to release the American hostage without preconditions – in other words, no consecutive release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel – has underlined how the dynamics of the Gaza war have been changing. There are multiple competing objectives: *Hamas wants the war to end without being comprehensively defeated. They want to survive to continue playing a leadership role in Gaza and to achieve that, they need all Israel Defence Forces (IDF) troops to withdraw from the territory. The holding of hostages has been key to this strategy. *Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, has now made it clear that the total defeat of Hamas and the occupation of the whole of the Gaza Strip is the priority, even more important than the release of the remaining hostages; and thousands of reservists have been mobilised to flood Gaza with troops. *The Trump administration has backed Israel to eliminate Hamas but the president has other objectives and needs the war to end and the hostages released, to achieve it. His arrival in Saudi Arabia is a reminder that Trump’s long-term vision is to persuade Riyadh to agree formal diplomatic relations with Israel as part of an expanded framework of peace and stability in the region. Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to consider this strategy but not until the war in Gaza comes to an end. The release of Edan Alexander is, therefore, a clever chess move by Hamas to gain favour with Trump as he lands in the region and to put pressure on Netanyahu to call off his plan, approved by his security cabinet, to launch a new all-enveloping offensive to seize the whole of the Gaza Strip. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s ubiquitous special envoy, slipped away from the Trump delegation to Saudi Arabia in order to fly direct to Israel to speak to Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister has so far treated the freedom for Alexander as a bonus and a sign of desperation by Hamas rather than as an incentive to suspend or cancel his new offensive in Gaza. Netanyahu, of course, is under all sorts of pressure, political and diplomatic. Trump is getting almost as frustrated with the Israeli prime minister as he is with President Putin and the Russian leader’s ambivalent response to Washington’s demands for an end to the war in Ukraine. Domestically, Netanyahu is being accused of deliberately expanding and prolonging the war in Gaza in order to safeguard his own position. He still faces corruption charges which he has described as “an ocean of absurdity”. The release of Alxander has also intensified the demands of the hostage families, a potent political force in Israel, to focus far more effort on gaining the return of the other hostages, dead and alive. One of the principal players on the American side in recent negotiations with Hamas was Adam Boehler, Trump’s special envoy for hostage response. The other key members of the Trump administration involved were Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and temporary national security adviser. Most of the talks between the US and Hamas have been carried out indirectly, with Qatar acting as mediator. But earlier this year, Boehler held direct talks with Hamas in Doha, Qatar to try and secure Alexander’s freedom, as well as the bodies of the four dead Americans. But those talks faltered, partly because of Israeli objections. The last time there were hostage releases was in January and February during the two-month ceasefire. Thirty-eight hostages were freed in exchange for 1,500 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. The ceasefire ended in March after a breakdown in talks to agree the next phases in a longer-term settlement which should have led to the release of the remaining 24 surviving hostages and 35 dead captives, held by both Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists.

Stick with Trump and you get a story

The reporters travelling with Donald Trump to the Middle East are sure of one thing. They will get a surfeit of breaking stories. Trump brings reporters he likes and trusts along with him everywhere and they get the tasty morcels that emerge every day. It's so unlike the Joe Biden era. You were lucky to get any atory when travelling with him. But Trump uses every opportunity to hint at what's coming up and if he doesn't tell his reporters' fan club he puts it on his social media platform. It's news news news every single day. Even before he arrives in Saudi Arabia tomorrow, the story broke that the last surviving Amnerican-Israeli hostage in Gaza was to be released. Trump announced it. Big headlines everywhere. When he is in Saudi Arabia there will be all sorts of snippets emerging to make the headlines, not least, the potential for Saudi/Israeli diplomatic relations and the Iran nuclear programme which Trump is try to scotch with negotations going on for the last two weeks. Whatever you think of Trump, it has to be said that his presidency so far has been a blockbuster - at least for the reporters in tow.

What does Putin think of Washington/Beijing talks?

For the May 8 end of Second World War celebrations in Moscow, Vladimir Putin had his good friend Xi Zinping alongside him. Lots of hugs and hand-shaking and smiles. All very symbolic of the burgeoning friendship and alliance between Russia and China. They are strategic partners, effectively lined up against the United States and everything America stands for on the global stage. So what will Putin be thinking when he reads that Donald Trump's envoy and Xi Zinping's envoy have met in Switzerland and had a jolly good discussion and negotiation about resolving the tariff/trade war and improving relations between Washington and Beijing? Does Putin think Beijing is playing a double game here or did Xi reassure him when he was in Moscow that he has a grand plan with the US which won't upset or undermine his deep love for Putin and Russia? I think the Chinese president will have reassured Putin that his main priority is strengthening the relationship on all counts with Moscow but being a global economic superpower China has to have meaningful trade relations with Washington. Trump has said that if Putin stops the war in Ukraine and accepts a peace settlement, then the benefits for Russia will be huge vis a vis trade and business relations with the US. So far, Putin hasn't taken that on board. But if Washington and Beijing agree a new way of doing business together, it might persuade Putin to do likewise. Thus the war in Ukraine could end. It's just a thought but it might work.

A woman to be "C", head of MI6

So it looks like the next Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) is going to be a woman, the first in the agency's history. According to the Sunday Times, the shortlist of three candidates does not include a man. Ergo, a female "C", the most famous letter in Whitehall. Everyone from the Prime Minister downwards in government refers to the Chief of MI6 as "C". The intelligence service has had a lot of very good women at the top of the hierarchy for many years but every time the possibility of a woman taking over the top job came up it was always a man who got it. Sir Richard Moore, the current "C", is retiring at the end of the year after five years in the post. So now is the time when Whitehall looks at the replacement candidates. The Sunday Times says two of the candidates are insiders, long-term MI6 intelligence officers, and the third, the favourite, is the current ambassador to the United Nations, Dame Barbara Woodward, a former ambassador to Beijing. She'll be the favourite because of her contacts and experience in China, the Number One challenge for the West. But for the intelligence officers in MI6, their choice would be to have an insider in the top job. They always prefer that. It's said Barbara Woodward has no intelligence backgrtound but of course that is not strictly true. As ambassador in Beijing and in the UN she will have had access to classified material and will know the hierarchy at MI6 HQ at Vauxhall Cross. It's not the same as having experience of standing cold and apprehensive on dark street corners in some hostile capital waiting for a source to turn up. But she will know her intelligence stuff. We will wait and see who the mandarins recommend to Sir Keir Starmer.

Charmer Starmer wins over Trump

Keir Starmer got a lot of flak for bending the knee to Donald Trump and flattering him at every available opportunity at a time when other leaders were denouncing the new president or staying away from him because of his unpredictability. But ever since the shocking scenes in the Oval Office when Trump and his vice president JD Vance harangued President Zelensky before the world's media, it became evident that the only way to have a decent chat with the US president was to smile and agree with everything he said. Starmer effectively did that and now everyone is saying his whole approach to the Trump conundrum has produced dividends. For a start, he has got himself the first trade deal that has come out of the White House. A deal is a deal, whether it's a terrific one or not. The trade deal Starmer has won, through his negotiators, isn't the perfect agreement but it's a beginning and it's better than no deal at all, which has been the case for years under successive British prime ministers. So, it's one up for Starmer.

VE Day should be a reminder to all dictators

Here we are, 80 years after the end of the Second World War which caused millions of deaths and destruction of whole cities, and yet the lessons that should have been learned have not been learned. The world is suffering from more wars than ever before: Ukraine, Gaza, the Congo, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and, potentially, between India and Pakistan. Terrorism is everywhere. The threat of a Third World War has been in the air ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. Newspaper headlines here in ther UK often warn of a future attack on this country by Russia. I think and hope that such dire warnings are exaggerated. But the headlines indicate the fear in people's minds that the world is going down a dangerous and scary path. The 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War will hopefully persuade political leaders that no action should ever be taken which might lead to another global conflict. The Soviet Union played a crucial role in the defeat of the Nazis. President Putin should be proud of that but also be aware of his awesome responsibilities to seek peaceful, not military solutions to what he believes are Russia's grievances.