An incredible military operation to save pilot

When the US military pulls out all the stops there is no country on the planet which can match them. The rescue of the second crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over southern Iran was an amazing achievement, carried out with unbelievable expertise, tehnology and bravery. By the sound of it, the Iranian military were pretty close to finding the American first, but US special operations troops, in their hundreds, outsmarted them and provided a wall of firepower to keep them at bay while tbe combat search and rescue helicopters, Jolly Greens and Combat Kings, focused on the rescue. Overhead there were dozens of bombers, ground-attack A-10 gunships, surveillance planes, air-refuelling tankers, Apache helicopters and electronic-jamming aircraft to protect the whole mission. If it had gone wrong it would have been a calamity, and Donald Trump would have faced an outcry. But it went spectacularly right, no Americans were injured, apart from the rescued crew member, hurt when he ejected from his fighter jet, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps troops, leading the hunt for the crew member, a weapons specialist. were blasted to hell. Such a huge relief and a massive boost for the US military who have been given a near-impossible taks, ie, to effect regime-change in Tehran, dig out the 400 kilos of enriched uranium and destroy Iran's ballistic missiles. The saving of one life (well, two, because the F-15 pilot was rescued earlier) will help to give Trump the leeway he needs to try and finish the job. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANAVLE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

The missing US pilot HAS to be rescued to stop a nightmare scenario

Suddenly the whole US military apparatus is focusing on one thing, the rescue of the missing crew member of the downed F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran. The legendary Combat Search and Rescue Teams who are trained for this eventuality, will find him if anyone can. But they have to do it before some wandering Iranian comes across the pilot and contacts the security authorities. The worst possible sceanrio is for the crew member to be detained, ill-treated and put on state television so that the Tehran regime can gloat. His survival chances would be minimal. We have had this terrible scenario before. Saddah Mussein held people, including children, hostage and flaunted their suffering on television. And of course, Gary Powers, the U2 spy pilot shot down in 1960 by the Soviet Union on a secret CIA surveillance mission, was paraded before the cameras when he was picked up and brutally treated. Why the missing American crew member has not been found is a mystery. Fighter aircraft crews always have personal radio beacons to pinpoint their position if shot down, and undergo intense training for what action to take if parachuting unharmed into hostile territory. The missing American will be hiding somewhere and he may be worried that his personal radio beacon could be spotted by the enemy and might have switched it off. If so, that will make the task of his rescuers much more difficult. But he HAS to be found. Iran would be granted huge leverage over Donald Trump if the airman is captured. With the Strait of Hormuz card already in their pocket, a captured airman would raise hopes among the regime that Trump can be defeated. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

What happens when the war in Iran is over?

Despite all the predictions that the war in Iran would only run for four to six weeks, or will be over in another two or three weeks, or has nearly been completed, etc etc, there is actually no sign yet of a slowing down of the strikes by the US and Israel, and no sign of Iran stopping retaliating. It could go on for weeks or months with mnore and more destruction throughout Iran and in the Middle East countries targeted by Tehran. However, when it does all come to a halt, what if anything will Donald Trump do to repair the massively damaged relationship between Washington and the whole of Europe? Or will he wait for Europe to make the first move? Right now, Trump is angry about Europe's attitude and wants to leave Nato, and Europe is angry at the way Trump has been treating all European governments, berating them for daring to go against him and preventing the US military from using European bases for offensive strikes on Iran. Actually, Britain is effectively allowing its RAF bases to be used as a transit point for bombers and ground-attack aircraft flying in from the US, and Keir Starmer's condition that they only be used for "defensive" operations is looking pretty woolly. Nevertheless, Europe has not welcomed Trump's war and relations now are so bad that whenever he speaks about his European partners he has nothing but insults for them. When the war is over, this will all have to stop. For everyone's sake. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTOMES.

The toll of damage at US bases in the Middle East

Pentagon boss Pete Hegseth admitted at the start of the war that some Iranian missiles and drones would get through the layers of air defences spread out in the Middle East. What he did not acknowledge was that the US has appeared unprepared for the mass of long-range Shahed-136 killer drones launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against US bases in the region. Now into the fifth week of the war, the IRGC has succeeded in causing extensive damage to many of the 13 US bases, despite the pre-war deployment of some of America’s most expensive defensive systems capable of intercepting every type of ballistic and cruise missile. The cost of the destruction after the first month is now estimated to be nearly $1.5 billion and the injury toll is more than 300 US service personnel. In addition, 13 have been killed, although six died when two RC-135 air reuelling takers collided in midair over western Iraq. Much of the destruction has been caused by long-range drones; and even though the rate of drone attacks has dropped, the threat they still pose has become increasingly clear. The US is struggling to stop them coming. The IRGC’s principal UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) is the 11.5ft long kamikaze Shahed-136, each carrying a 50-kilo explosive warhead. They fly low and fast and have too often beaten the sophisticated US anti-missile systems on land, on warships and on fighter aircraft. To add to the American military’s challenges, Russia has been supplying the IRGC with US base location coordinates, and more specifically the daily position of aircraft out in the open, as opposed to in hardened shelters; and is now providing its own variant of the Shahed, the Geran-1 and Geran-2 which are armed with a 90-kilo warhead. Iran launched nearly 4,000 of these one-way attack drones in the first few weeks of the war, and about a dozen US bases in the Middle East have been hit. With Russia’s help the IRGC still seems to have sufficient stocks of these “suicide” bombs. “The failure of the department of defence [Pentagon] adequately to incorporate the lessons of the war in Ukraine, as opposed to just studying them, particularly counter-drone warfare, is a bipartisan failing across two administrations [Presidents Biden and Trump],” a former top US defence official told The Times. The audit of destruction at US bases or sites where America has a military presence is sombre reading for the Pentagon. *Prince Sultan airbase, 60 miles south of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia: On March 27, the base was targeted by 29 drones and six ballistic missiles. An E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft suffered a direct hit and was demolished. Several KC-135 tankers were also damaged. Fifteen American soldiers were wounded, five seriously. The AWACS was one of six in the region, each costing about $300 million. March 13, five KC-135 tankers were damaged by a drone attack. March 1, a US serviceman was killed by a drone strike. *Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, forward headquarters for US Central Command, with 100 aircraft and 10,000 troops: A long-range radar located at Umm Dahal, in the vicinity of Al-Udeid, was hit and damaged on March 7. The radar cost more than $1 billion. *Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet., headquartered at Manama: February 28, the base was hit by drones, causing damage to radar and communications equipment, estimated in a report by the Pentagon to Congress to be around $200 million. *Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a US Army base and logistics hub: On March 1, six US soldiers were killed at a logistics operations centre in Shuaiba port, ten miles from the US Army base, after it was hit by a drone. *Ali Al Salem airbase and Camp Buehring base in Kuwait. Both were hit by drones, on March 1 and March 5 respectively, causing significant damage to communications systems and buildings. *Al-Dhafra airbase in United Arab Emirates: The base, hosting F-22 Raptor stealth aircraft and MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drones, has been targeted on multiple occasions. Nine Reapers are reported to have been destroyed in separate incidents, although most of them while flying over Iran from the UAE base. A Reaper costs about $30 million. *Muwaffaq al Salti airbase in northwest Jordan: The base was targeted on March 4, causing extensive damage to an air defence radar system. A radar of this type costs around $500 million. *Erbil airbase in northern Iraq: The base where US and British special forces are operating, has been regularly hit by drones. Most have been shot down, although some damage has been caused. *Al-Assad airbase in western Iraq: Targeted by drones and missiles, the damage has not been revealed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Trump wants out of Nato!

Donald Trump has many times warned that he might take the United States out of Nato because, apart from the US, the rest of the alliance had failed to spend enough on defence. It kind of worked because everyone rushed to promise to spend more. Most of the other members of the alliance have committed to more and more spending over the next few years. We will see if that happens. But now the US president is so mightily angry with every member of the alliance for failing to join him in the war against Iran that he is seriously considering exiting Nato to punish all the allies for being ungrateful, cowardly, weak and a whole lot of other things. Europe, as far as he is concerned, qan go hang and can look after themselves, no longer with the US umbrella over them. He might just mean it and might just do it this time. His argument, I guess, which is not actually an unfair one, is that Iran with nukes and long-range ballistic missiles posed a real threat, not just to the Middle East, but eventually to the whole world. So, in other words, it wasn't just a problem for the US and Israel to confront but was a threat tp the whole alliance. But that argument has been given the cold shoulder by the alliance. They all said it wasn't their war. Theoretically, they are right because this was a war chosen by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, it wasn't a Nato war as such. The trouble is, because of the squeamishness of all of America's Nato allies, we are now in a position where Trump will for ever regard Nato as as a weak organisation that can't be trusted to help out when called upon. So, why, he will be thinking, bother with the organisation? It could happen, the US cold-shopuldering Nato. That would be a serious moment for the rest of the alliance. Very very serious, which is why a lot of phone calls need to be made to persuade Trump to drop the idea. Otherwise it will be a triumph for Putin! PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Should King Charles go to Washington?

It has been confirmed that King Charles and Queen Camilla WILL be going to Washington for a State visit next month. Confirmation came on the day when Donald Trump had another go at the UK government, tell Starmer and co that if they needed oil from the Gulf region they should go and get it themselves. It's a bizarre juxtaposition but not necessarily unusual when it comes to relations between Washington and London right now. There is little love lost between Trump and Starmer because of the prime minister's reluctance to go the whole hog and give the US military total access to whichever base they need in Britain to fly off and bomb Iran to obliteration. However, in the great scheme of things, it still seems right for the king and queen to continue with the long-planned return State Visit. Trump loves the British monarchy and it won't do any harm to the king's humble servants, which include Starmer, to feel a bit of warmth from the White House for a change. So, Charles and Camilla, go and do your diplomatic best to repair relations and persuade Trump to be less antagonistic towards the country with which the US shares a very special, historic relationship. Long may it last in these turbulent times. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Have the negotiations with Iran got anywhere?

The latest Iranian interlocutor vis a vis talks with third parties to bring the war against Iran to an end appears to be the Speaker of the Parliamemt, Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf. That doesn't mean he won't be bumped off by the Israeli air force or Mossad but right now he's the main man. But has he yet shown any interest in making a deal? In public it's all belligerent rhetoric but as the days go by and more bombs fall, destroying military infrastructure, surely someone in the regime must be saying "enough". The real problem is that there is no one really in charge in Iran. The Speaker of the Parliament has always been a powerful position but he is not The Decision Maker. The Supreme Leader is the key figure, but Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is an elusive individual who may or may not be injured. Donald Trump doesn't help by one minute being terrifically optimistic about a deal any day and then warning he's going to hit Iran bigger than ever or destroy their power plants to make them all live in the dark. If this is a negotiating tactic it doesn't seem to be impressing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is carrying on firing missiles like it has an inexaustible supply and the IRGC leaders want revenge, not peace. Is this going to go on for ever or there something in the wind which will suddenly bring back the smile to everyone's face?

Delta Force's greatest challenge

Clad in radiation-protection suits and full-facial respirators, America’s elite special forces units have been training for this moment for years. Despite all the talk of behind-the-scenes peace negotiations, the seizure by force of Iran’s hidden 440.9 kilos of 60-per-cent-enriched uranium is still one of the primary options awaiting a decision by President Trump. The US Army’s Delta Force, modelled on Britain’s SAS, has carried out exercises every year to rehearse the removal of nuclear, chemical or biological materials in hostile conditions. The search for and safe extraction of Iran’s highest-enriched uranium, contained in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas inside portable pressurised steel canisters, would be Delta Force’s greatest challenge since it was formed in 1977. The mission, if approved by Trump, could also involve either of the two other special combat units trained and experienced in handling nuclear products: the Green Berets and 75th Ranger Regiment. The decision by Trump to deploy to the Middle East about 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division’s immediate response force suggests their role could be to join two 4,400-strong US marine expeditionary units, also en route, in providing a security perimeter around the nuclear sites where the canisters of enriched uranium are believed to be buried. The dispatching of elements of 82nd Airborne Division which was among the last military units to leave Afghanistan in the chaotic withdrawal of August, 2021, has already caused alarm among former members of the 82nd. “Paratroopers always get the job done. I know because I also served in this division,” ex-Captain Jason Crow disclosed. “I also know what it’s like to be deployed with no clear strategy and end game. Americans deserve better,” he wrote on his Facebook page this week. Jason Crow, 47, is now the Democratic Representative for the 6th district of Colorado and serves on the House intelligence and armed services committees. He saw combat in Afghanistan and Iraq with 82nd Airborne and 75th Ranger Regiment. About 200 kilos of enriched uranium are believed to be buried in an underground steel-walled bunker at the nuclear Isfahan site, 270 miles south of Tehran. Isfahan was one of three nuclear sites targeted by the US and Israel in the 12-day war last June. The remainder of the 440.9 kilos could be underground at Fordow, about 100 miles south of the capital. The special forces units would operate with a US Army Nuclear Disablement Team (NDT) which is part of 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear Explosives Command. There are three NDTs, all based in Maryland. Equipped with Geiger counters, they are trained to disable enemy nuclear capabilities. However, despite all this expertise, is it feasible to consider a special operations mission to remove the canisters; and what if some of the uranium – only 30 per cent of enrichment away from being fissile material for a bomb - has been withdrawn to another underground facility? Such as the one designated “Pickaxe Mountain”, a mile from the Natanz uranium-enrichment plant, southwest of the capital. Moreover, would 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd and 4,400 marines be enough to support the special forces’ mission? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which has responsibility for protecting Iran’s nuclear sites, has been targeted by US and Israeli bombing. But before the war began it was more than 150,000-strong. A former senior US commander who served with the 82nd said: “I don’t even know where they [the airborne troops] can safely stage, much less what they might do. “I can see where paratroopers and marines might deploy on the ground in or off the coast of Iran but I think the risks in securing them once there would be enormous.” If the operation by Delta Force in January to capture Nicolas Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is anything to go by, there will be an awesome display of fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters and drones overseeing the mission. More than 150 aircraft were used for the seizing of Maduro. Air assets currently part of the operation against Iran include U-2 spy planes, RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, E-11A communications aircraft, often called high-altitude WiFi platforms, MQ-9 surveillance and attack Reaper drones; and two key low-flying ground attack aircraft, A-10 gunships and Apache helicopters, both armed with rapid-fire cannons to target IRGC troops. “Everything would depend on the intelligence, not just of the location of the enriched uranium but where helicopters can land with troops in a secure area, and the positions of the IRGC units,” said a former British special forces soldier who has trained with Delta Force. “The Israelis will play a key role. They have agents everywhere in Iran who are pro-US and pro-Israel who will guide them.,” he said. “Provided the area where the uranium is buried is secured, the US special forces teams can take as long as they need to extract it. In exercises in the US, Delta Force used to use a giant balloon to lift up a dummy nuclear device, and a C-130 Hercules aircraft with a special fork-shaped contraption sticking out at the front would fly over and hook it up. In Iran, they would use helicopters to fly the canisters off to a ship. “The American special forces use Pegasus [Israeli-made spyware capable of infiltrating all mobile devices] to intercept everything on the ground. It’s a phenominal system and will allow the units to be kept informed of Iranian leadership command decisions” US Central Command which is in charge of Operation Epic Fury – codename for the strikes on Iran – is also now equipped with the Maven smart system, a battlefield management, artificial intelligence “military brain”. The AI software platform has revolutionised ground warfare, making it possible to collect huge amounts of data, analyse it and identify targets in less than a minute. It will help simplify what will otherwise be a highly complex ground operation. “Despite all the advances in technology and the training for this sort of operation, I find it difficult to believe they will risk a ground operation of this sort,” the former special forces soldier said. “There is also one crucial curve ball and that is that China and Russia will be helping the Iranians, especially the Chinese with their satellites, supplying intelligence to Iran,” he said. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Another 10,000 US troops for Iran?

This is beginning to look like serious mission-creep. We already have two Marine Expeditionary Units arriving in the Middle East, plus 2,000-3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Now it is reported in Washington that the Pentagon has sent the White House a plan to deploy 10,000 more troops. Is this part of Donald Trump's campaign to put more and more pressure on the Tehran regime, or is it a sign that the president is deciding whether to go for a full-blown invasion of Iran? But if that is the case, the US would need to send more than 200,000 troops. Iran's main fighting force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is at least 150,000-strong and could have up to 180,000 troops. Ok, most of Iran's military infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged. But there is still a huge fighting force available to take on the US. This bit-by-bit increase in ground-troop presence in the Middle East doesn't really make much sense, unless it's purely for one specific role, either the taking of Kharg Island, the oil terminal location, or trying to grab the enriched uranium from its bunkered storage sites. Whatever is the thinking, this war looks like a much longer-term operation that the Trump administration had in mind when it all started on February 28. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Are we getting used to perpetual war?

When did we have peace everywhere in the world? Never. And now there are so many wars going on that we have been forced to change our view of the future of this planet. It all looks so grim. The Russian war against Ukraine is into its fifth year and the wars in the Middle East show no sign of ending soon. For those who have to suffer the results of bombing and missile dropping, it is infinitely worse, but for the rest of us who are lookers-on rather than victims, there is now an overwhelming sense of depression and negativity. Meanwhile, for the countries which have suffered wars that are supposedly at an end, such as Gaza, there is relief from the bombings but no sense of hope for the future. Other countries where there are for-ever wars, such as Sudan, the violence and terror has become a permanent backcloth, and even worse, nobody with political power in the West is doing much about it. This year, 2026, will go down in history as a year of death and destruction across so many parts of the globe. Will 2027 be any better?

Trump's plan to end the war with Iran is rejected by Tehran

The 15-point plan to end the war in Iran looked very similar to the proposals made before the bombs started falling and it was rejected then, as it has been today. Perhaps Trump thought it best to start with a wish list and then agree to some sort of compromise. The classic negotiating stance. Tehran, under its new regime leadership, appeared to show little interest, although supposedly is ready to talk. To the rest of the world, it doesn't look as if this new regime will be ready to do anything but take the punishment it's getting daily and answer back with ballistic missiles, some of which (too many) are getting through defences, This is perhaps the most worrying development. Even Israel's famous Iron Dome and Arrow anti-missile systems are not proving capable of knocking out everything thrown at them from Iran. Although the number of missiles has reduced significantly because of targeted bombing by the Americans and Israelis, enough are getting through to cause deaths, injury and destruction of buildings. This will give the new leaders in Tehran an incentive to carry on launching missiles. This is bad news and not helpful for Trump who now wants to wind it all up. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, A PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

It's all about the price of oil

Most things come down to the price of oil. The war between US/Israel and Iran may on the surface be about nuclear weapons and terrorism and suppression of protesters in Tehran and an evil regime. But after three weeks of war it's now principally about the price of a barrel of oil. It can't go on for long being $100-$120 a barrel, because it hits the cost of living around the world and gives Vladimir Putin the last laugh because he is making big profits on the oil he manages to sell to willing importers. So Donald Trump out of the blue announced that talks between the US and Iran had gone so well that the war was about to end. The result was instant. The price of oil dropped. How true Trump's statement was we still don't know because Iran has dismissed it as fake news. As a result the price of oil swung upwards again. Trump probably needed to bide his time for a few days to make sure the Marine reinforcements had arrived and were ready to spring into action, seizing the Kharg Island oil terminal or smashing up the coastline sites where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have their speed boats for attacks on shipping in the Gulf. So, by the end of this week, there will be a resurgence of American firepower hammering Iran, and then the price of oil per barrel will go shooting up. Unless Tehran, hoping to prevent an invasion by US Marines, decides to hold serious talks after all, and then everyone can sleep better at night, and the price of oil will fall dramatically.

Trump raises hopes of a deal with Iran

To be fair, Donald Trump has been pretty optimistic since his war with Iran began that it would all work out well and he would meet all his objectives. There has been a ton of ups and downs since, but basically he remained sure that the war would end in due course and everything would be fine. While this was simplistic, because patently it has not been all right for the Iranians, or for Israelis injured in missile strikes or the Gulf states who have been targeted with Iranian drones and missiles, it now seems there is new hope for a settlement. Trump has said his two main Everything Envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have held key talks with Iranian top officials and Tehran wants a deal. It's impossible to say with any degree of confidence that the talks will actually bring this war to an end. But Trump is holding off for five days from attacking Iran's power infrastructure to give the talks a chance. There was an almighty "PHEW" across the world and oil prices suddenly dropped. Of course, if the deal goes ahead but it doesn't include an agreement by Iran to hand over the 440 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium, then there will be a lot of questions raised about why this war wes started in the first place. But, as someone famously said, let's give peace a chance. But what will Israel do? Only yesterday Israeli military spokesmen were talking about the war going on for weeks. Can Trump restrain Benjamin Netanyahu? I think he wqill have to, otherwsie any peace settlement with Washington will look pretty pointless. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Tit-for-tat energy war between the US and Iran is a disaster in the making

Four weeks into the war started by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Tehran regime, propped up by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Cporps, is showing no sign of backing down or lessening the tension, let alone seeking a peace deal. In fact the war is now reaching a truly dangerous stage, with Trump warning he will obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure, and Tehran saying it will respond in kind by showering the Gulf states' energy plants with ballistic missiles. And what, I might ask, is the hell the point of doing that? It will lead to an enormous breach in the world economy, poverty for the Iranian people and a wider war thoughout the Middle East. For God's sake, someone step forward and get some sense into the White House and Tehran and stop this warmongering. If Iran tries again to hit Israel's nuclear research site at Dimona, then Israel is going to respond with an almighty blast at Iran. Israel has around 80 nuclear warheads. If Netanyahu feels Israel's very existence is at stake, he could reach for the weapon of last resort. I only mention this because the rhetoric is now getting hyper-bellicose. Everyone needs to calm down. Who is actually working to get this war to stop? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

How much longer can Iran hold on?

Most media reports suggest the US/Israel war against Iran is heading towards a mighty Middle Eastern conflict, dragging in many of America's allies, and that the regime in Tehran is putting up such a fierce fight, it could go on for months and lead to a collapse of the world economy. But that doesn't take into account the huge damage being done to Iran from 24-hour bombing. A huge proportion of the Iranian military infrastructure has been smashed, the leadership dares not show its face for fear of facing Israeli assassins, the cost of living has shot up, the country is effectively facing ruin. How long can this go on before the people of Iran cry out: enough, enough! Ok, it's too dangerous for them to come out into the streets and rebel against the regime. But there will have to come a time when someone sensible -is there anyone? - in Iran will make the call to Trump and say: "Stop destroying our country, we are ready to talk." So far, the contacts have led to nothing but that's because the yearning for revenge, particularly for the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the late supreme leader, is so overwhelming there is little motivation for seeking a deal. But it's in no one's interest for Iran to be destroyed. The 90 million people deserve a decent future but it's not going to happen while the radical clerics are in charge. I feel sorry for the ordinary Iranian families who just want a peaceful life. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will Trump seize Iran's Kharg Island?

Iran’s most strategically vital oil facility, now on President Trump’s hitlist, is known to Iranians as the “Forbidden Island”. Located about 15.5 miles off the coast of Iran in the northern Persian Gulf, Kharg Island, a tiny coral outcrop, is heaving with oil storage tanks, loading terminals and pipelines. It represents Iran’s lifeblood and is protected by thousands of troops from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Access to Kharg is heavily restricted which is why it has acquired the sobriquet ,“Forbidden Island”. Millions of barrels of crude oil flow from Iran’s principle oil fields through pipelines to Kharg Island every day. The island was selected because it’s located in deep water, suitable for the arrival and departure of oil tankers. Iran supplies more than 4.5 per cent of global oil. Kharg Island currently has an estimated 18 million barrels of crude stored in tanks. After a mass US bombing raid last week on Karg Island which, according to Trump, “totally obliterated” everything military, from air defences to drone-launching sites, the path has been laid for an amphibious landing by thousands of American Marines. currently en route from the Philippine Sea. Such an operation, aimed at seizing control of the island through which around 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil passes to its global customers, would be Trump’s most daring and potentially most risky offensive mission against the Tehran regime since the war began on February 28. The insertion of Marines – the first boots on the ground in Operation Epic Fury – would expand and extend the confrontation with Tehran. It would no longer be an air war lasting “four or five weeks”. Territorial occupation, even if limited in time, could provoke retaliation on a different scale. All of these factors are being weighed up by the Pentagon and the White House, as the 2,500 troops of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) on board the big-deck amphibious assault ship, USS Tripoli and two other vessels, make their way to the Middle East. They are due to arrive next week. A successful seizure of Kharg Island would provide Trump with the ultimate leverage to persuade Tehran to capitulate, albeit that so far the regime has shown no sign of giving in to the president’s demands. The air and Tomahawk-missile attacks on Kharg Island carefully avoided any targeting of the oil terminals and other vital infrastructure The threat to destroy this crucial sector of Iran’s oil empire is still one of the options on Trump’s list. But to do so would cause a spiralling of global oil prices. There is another factor. China is Iran’s largest oil customer, and Trump is still due to meet with President Xi Zinping in Beijing later this month. The destruction of Kharg Island’s oil terminals would scupper not only the planned visit but also relations between Beijing and Washington. So, the second option, an amphibious landing and occupation by Marines would mean the US could hold the island hostage in return for Tehran agreeing to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and allow 20 per cent of the world’s oil to pass through the chokepoint safely. It would be a huge gamble. Kharg Island may be only five miles long by about three miles wide. But it could require more than 2,500 US Marines to seize and hold it. Double that number would make more military sense, although an MEU is self-sufficient and comes with tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles, helicopters and its own F-35B vertical take-off fighter jets. What has not been revealed is how many of the IRGC residents of Kharg Island were killed in last week’s bombing raids and how well they may have been reinforced from the mainland. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Are Trump and Netanyahu doing this war together or...?

Israel is basically helping itself to targets in Iran and sometimnes one wonders whether Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are on the same page. Trump said in the first week that all the people he had in mind for possibly taking over from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the huge Israeli airstrike on Day One which finished off the then supreme leader and many others. Israel has continued to target and kill other top Iranian regime leaders including Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's national security council, and today the intelligence minister. Were either of those on Trump's list of possible leaders he could do business with? Now Israel has bombed one of the largest natural gas fields in Iran. Yet Trump deliberately didn't order US bombers to target the oil terminals on Kharg Island when all the military facilities on the island were hit. Presumably Trump had his reasons - the price of oil - for leaving the terminals and oil storage sites undamaged. So did he know Netanyahu was going to hit the gas field? Maybe, Trump has told the Israeli prime minister he can bomb what he likes but it seems to be a bit of coordination and shared objectives might be a good move.

Trump disillusioned by America's allies

It has been quite a shock for Donald Trump. Normally when he puts out a call from the Oval Office, people come running. Look what happened when Joe Biden rang to create a coalition to help Ukraine fight Russia. Everyone, bar none, agreed to rally round. Trump asks allies for help in tackling Iran and the response has been tepid to say the least. First, Keir Starmer, and then the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanche, said no to US bombers flying off to Iran from UK and Spanish bases, and now none of the Nato allies seem to be responding to Trump's call to send warships to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz under fire from Iran. Starmer said he wasn't willing. German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz said it wasn't a job for Nato. No one wanted to get involved in what is seen as Trump's war. Actually while this is understandable, it is a fact that Iran under its theocratic regime does pose a threat to every decent country, so Trump must be seriously miffed that no one wants to join him. He says he doesn't care and that he will do it on his own, along with Benjamin Netanyahu. But he won't forget. Oh no. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Does it matter if Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or dead?

Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, his war secretary, have both been hinting that Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Iranian supreme leader, is either dead or seriously wounded from the first raid on Tehran two weeks ago. Either tbis is hot propaganda to stir the pot or they are trying to force him to come out into the open and show himself to prove he is not dead. If he is dead, will it matter? It depends how you like to interpret it. Why would the so-called Assembly of Experts have unanimously elected him as the successor to his late father if they knew he was dead or on the point of death? Maybe because there was such expectation around the world that Mojtaba would be the chosen one, the clerics felt they couldn't elect anyone else, otherwise it would send a message around the world that they had spurned the son of the revered Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So, instead of risking that, they went for Mojtaba even though he was in hospital receiving what they hoped would be life-saving medical treatment. Either way, he hasn't shown himself or spoken in public, and his enemy in Washington is gloating that he is dead or has lost a leg or some such. What the clerics can't do now is tell the world that actually the leader they chose is no longer with us. That would look pretty strange. So I guess for the monent, they are stuck with Mojtaba whether he is alive or dead. The reality is, however, that Ali Larinjani, secretary of the supreme national security council of Iran, is leading and running the country and is quite happy to walk in the streets to show himself off. He is still carrying out the orders of the late ayatollah and knows precisely what he is going to do to fight the US and Israel over the next few months. Yes, months, not weeks. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Right now there is no end state for the war in Iran

There is a danger that Donald Trump and his secretary for war Pete Hegseth are making the same mistake that befell a whole bunch of their predecessors which is simply this: massive military force wins wars. It absolutely doesn't. Especially if the firepower is only being directed from the air and from warhips and submarines launching missiles. A country the size of Iran, run by a fanatically ideological political regime backed by a fanatically ideological military force is not going to give in, even with four or five weeks of bombs and missiles. You can't change a whole country by bombing from the air. And if you put thousands of troops on the ground, you still can't control the country if the fanaticism is still there. Just look at the examples of Vietnam, Afghanistan and to a lesser extent, Iraq. Saddam Hussein was beaten and his regime fell but there followed another eight years of insurgency warfare. Trump cannot afford to face years of fighting in Iran, so even though he is sending Marine reinforcements to the region, what does he think they can achieve? They can launch an amphibious assault on the coastal areas from where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' navy is hitting tankers in the Gulf waterway. But then you have boots on the ground which will mean casualties and occupation of sorts. You can already hear the groans: "here we go again".This war, if it is going to bring real results, can only be ended once the regime is deposed. This is effectively what Trump and Hegseth have in mind. But there is no sign that the new regime put in place after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is going to give up. Lessons lessons lessons from the past. BUY MY NEW PAPERBACK AGENT REDRUTH, AN EXCITING SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Donald Trump hit by Iran's tanker war

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has turned the tables on President Trump’s “fire and fury” campaign. The Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, is blocked. Tankers and cargo vessels are on fire. The navy section of the IRGC has struck back with its most effective revenge card. Now the third tanker war in four decades has scuppered Trump’s hopes of declaring victory against Iran in the near future. Despite the massive destruction caused by US and Israeli bombers since the war began on Saturday, February 28, the IRGC still has the capacity and the skills to drag the whole of the Middle East into the conflict. Not so much with its short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, not even by its long-range drones, although all have caused fear and damage across the region. But by its combat-proven ability to send across the Gulf waterway explosives-laden drone boats, fast attack craft armed with missiles and sea-skimming cruise missiles from concealed coastal launchers. It’s the IRGC navy’s asymmetric warfare versus the full panoply of America’s mighty armada of aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers and Tomahawk-armed submarines. “Iran learned this lesson in the 1980s during the first tanker war, that if you have a conventional navy it’s vulnerable if you come up against the US Navy, so they went asymmetric and relied on cheap, small, in-shore craft that could cause a lot of damage. They didn’t require naval facilities and could just pop out, carry out an attack and go back into hiding,” said retired Vice Admiral Duncan Potts, much of whose Royal Navy career was spent in the Gulf facing daily threats from the IRGC. During the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, Iraq tried to disrupt Iran’s oil exports, and Tehran retaliated by attacking ships in the Gulf associated with Baghdad’s trading partners. Iraq responded with its own tanker war. More than 400 ships were attacked, 239 of them oil tankers. Many countries were forced to send warships to guard the shipping route, including the US, the UK (operating the Royal Navy’s Armilla Patrol), the then Soviet Union and France. Potts who is president of the Royal Naval Association (PLEASE LEAVE THIS IN), said Admiral Brad Cooper, the American in command of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, was well versed in IRGC tactics because he used to be commander of the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain. “I can’t believe the US won’t be directing their efforts on this IRGC capability, it’s a different approach to warfare,” Potts said. Potts first served in the Gulf when he was a 21-year-old sub-lieutenant in 1982 but went on to command HMS Southampton, a Type 42 destroyer, in the same region and became commander of Combined Task Force 158, an international naval group providing security in the northern Gulf in 2008 “I’ve always been up against the IRGC,” he said. A former senior Pentagon official said: “It’s hard to say at this point whether the US Navy is ahead of the threat or not. One thing for sure, this is not like the tanker war in the 1980s. The age of the drones [air and sea] has enabled Iran to fight precision warfare on the cheap. Mines which bedevilled us in the first Gulf War ]1991, will enable the Iranians to pose multiple problems for tanker traffic. So far in Operation Epic Fury, the focus has been on effecting-a strategic defeat on the Tehran regime– a shock and awe style of warfighting which has achieved impressive results, not least the knocking out of a large proportion of Iran’s ballistic-missile capability and destruction of command-and-control sites. Trump has also repeatedly referred to the obliteration of the Iranian navy - about 60 naval vessels so far, according to Admiral Cooper. But the Iranian navy wasn’t the real threat. “What the Iranians are doing now is entirely predictable, the IRGC is using small boat drones, jet skis in some cases, and mines to achieve a disproportionate impact. You don’t need a specialised warship to lay mines, a rowing boat can do it, depending on the mine,” said Kevin Rowlands who served with the Royal Navy’s Armilla Patrol in the Gulf in the 1990s. Mines are now being dropped in the water in the Strait of Hormuz by IRGC small boats, the US has confirmed. The disproportionate impact of the asymmetric warfare is clear to see. Before the launch of Operation Epic Fury, an average of about 153 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since March 1, the strait has effectively been closed to all traffic. Rowlands, a specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “The US navy with its aircraft carriers would probably prefer to engage with a peer adversary, like China, out in the open with long-range weapons and sensors, carrier against carrier. But what they have against Iran is more like counter-insurgency.” One way to combat the IRGC navy’s capabilities would be to launch an amphibious raid on the in-shore drones and missile launchers, he said. “But I don’t think there’s any intention of doing that, with boots on the ground,” he said. So, If the Iranians have learned lessons from the previous tanker wars – the second one was in 2019 during heightened tensions following the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran – then the US, too, will have to adapt to counter the tricky warfare of the IRGC navy. If the US is intent on continuing the war, Rowlands said, there might come a time when commercial ships will need protecting. “But I don’t envisage a convoy of ships with warships alongside. It would be more about information-sharing and perhaps overhead surveillance aircraft or drones to warn tankers of threats,” he said. Ultimately, however, Admiral Cooper will have to do something to eliminate the asymmetric threat to the Gulf waterway. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH. BUY FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS OR WATERSTSONES. ends

Iran's new supreme leader issues a warning but fails to appear in person

The first words have been spoken by the new leader of Iran since his elevation following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the words of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader, were read out by a news presenter. There was no sign of the new ruler. This says a number of things. First of all, he won't dare show his face anywhere in public or private because he knews the Israelis will target him and even now are probably doing their best to discover where he is hiding. He can't be in his late father's bunker because that has been destroyed by airstrikes. The second thing is he might still be receiving medical treatment for injuries he supposedly suffered when his father, mother and wife were all killed at the start of the joint US/Israeli strikes. There is no official confirmation that he was wounded. But it would seem suprising that he didn't suffer some injury from an attack which killed most of his family. His first words focused on the intention to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for as long as the US and Israel continued to attack Iran. But there wasn't any rousing speech appealing to his countrymen to back him in his confrontation with Trump. But he made it clear he wanted revenge for the death of his father. I fear this war is going to go and on. This is not what Trump envisaged when he sent his bombers towards Iran on February 28. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Unfortunately for Trump, the enemy (Iran) has a vote, too

Donald Trump has changed his mind a few times about how long the war against Iran will go on. First it was four or five weeks, then he thought the strikes were nearly completed, and now he is warning there is still stuff to do. But the bigger question is, not what the US will do in the next week or so, but what Iran will do. Iran may have lost a chunk of its top leadership but the second layer of leaders, from the new supreme leader downwards, are settling in and clearly the decision has been taken to fight and fight and use the one card they have which might make a difference to Trump's timetable: keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut for all shipping and attacking oil tankers sitting the other end of the Gulf waterway, stuck in limbo. The US military may have successfully targeted 19 or so Iranian navy warships. But Iran has the capacity to stop the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz just by threatening to attack ships, because as a result international insurers have declined to indemnify shipping companies. No insurance, no tanker movements. Trump has warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait but it's pretty likely that is what they will try to do. A massive blockage in the waterway where huge numbers of ships pass through every month will have a long-term impact on the world ecnomy. This is the threat posed by Iran and there is no way Trump can declare victory over Tehran until the Hormuz question has been resolved. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Trump's air war is devastating for Iran but not regime-changing

Bombs from the air are not going to bring about regime-change in Tehran. I thknk that can be safely predicted. The people of Iran might yearn to rise up against the mullahs but for very understandable reasons they are scared to do so. Thousands of families are still mourning the loss of their loved ones in January when the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps opened fire on their own people and killed at least 7,000 and probably many more. Trump claims it's as higb as 30,000. He may be right. What we don't know is how many of the IRGC have been killed in the US/Israeli bomb and missile strikes. But it's a huge organisation and the majority I suspect will survive by the time the bombing stops, so the guards corps will still be functioning to keep the new supreme leader in power and the Iranian people suppressed. What sort of victory will that be for Trump? Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary (war secretary) has claimed today that bombing will go on until the job is done. But what is the job? You can't annihilate a country like Iran into submission? Or can you? I seriously doubt it. The end game is still a confusing mystery. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY PAPERBACK SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

The selected new supreme leader is Iran's two-fingers to Trump

Iran has done what Donald Trump said publicly would be unacceptable. The Assembly of Experts, all radical Shi'ite clerics, voted for the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be the new supreme leader. Trump said Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son, was definitely not on his list of suitable candidates (suitable to Washington) to take over the top slot. But Mojtaba Khamenei was duly selected and now, because of his tight, longstanding association with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is probably the worst possible outcome for the US and Israel, now starting DayTen of the war against Tehran. The IRGC basically runs the country under the say-so of the supreme leader. This corps of up to 180,000 ayatollah devotees controls about 60 per cent of Iran's economy and is in charge of defence and foreign policy and is key to all the terrorist attacks throughout the Middle East and Europe, courtesy of its overseas wing, the Quds Force. So, with Mojtaba Khamenei now in charge, there is no hope of any kind of practical deal between Iran and the US, and no hope whatsoever for the poor Iranian people who just want a decent life. Israel has already threatened to bump off the new supreme leader and clearly he is going to be someone with a target on his back. But even if Israel succeeds, I doubt this will bring the Tehran regime to its knees. How is this war going to come to an end? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTSONES.

Can the US get its hands on Iran's 400 kilos of enriched uranium?

On the ninth day of the US/Israel war against Iran and still no attempt is being made to find and remove the 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium which lies buried at the damaged Isfahan nuclear site. Too dangerous to send in US special forces, Donald Trump must be hoping that if he bombs Iran to capitulation the Tehran regime will just hand over the 400 kilos and have done with the ambition to build a bomb. But this is probably never going to happen. So US spy satellites are watching any move by the Iranians to dig out the canisters, and if they do, they will be bombed. The next stage in the bombmaking process, apart from enriching the 60 per cent material to fissile strength (90 per cent) is to turn the uranium from its present state which consists of uranium hexafluoride (ie gas) into metal for shaping into a warhead. At the moment the 400 kilos have little significance. but if the war ends and these canisters are still in Iranian hands, Trump will not be able to claim victory. So, right now there is stalemate. But this is an issue which has to be resolved before the war comes to an end. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

How Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a sitting duck

By the time the Ayatollah began his day in Tehran, the spies listening to his calls were already extremely familiar with the habits of a supreme leader whose number was up. In orbit overhead, an Orion, the largest and most secretive of all American space satellites, could detect the voices of the regime as they exchanged increasingly worried messages about the build up of forces in the region. There were other high-tech efforts to track what is known as “life-pattern surveillance” of Ali Khamenei and his henchmen, including the now well-documented hacking of Tehran’s traffic camera network to track the movement of his bodyguards. All that remained in days and weeks before Khamenei’s killing, however, was the most prized asset of all: boots on the ground to confirm that all the technological surveillance was correct, that on a Saturday morning in Tehran, Khamenei would be a sitting duck. There, American intelligence officials turned to the masters of espionage in Iran: Mossad, Israel’s spy agency. Unrivalled in its experience of assassinating top military commanders and nuclear scientists, the agency was ultimately leading the plot to kill the supreme leader. It was only a matter of time before Khamenei and senior regime officials were eliminated, General Jack Keane, former vice-chief of staff of the US army and a trusted confidant of the Trump administration, told The Times. Indeed, there was little they could do to stop it, he said. “Although the Iranian leadership knew there was this risk, and changed their security procedures, even these changes had new habits which became predictable. Explaining the events that led up to Khamenei’s killing, Keane detailed an extensive intelligence operation that came to a stunning conclusion. “We were monitoring not just Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but the other leaders too,” he said. “And this is how we knew there was going to be a key meeting and that it would be in the presidential compound. We knew that Khamenei would not be in his bunker, given the meeting was scheduled for daytime, which provided a narrow opportunity to act.” Keane would know. The retired four-star general has long been one of the most influential military figures in Washington. When Donald Trump first won the White House in 2016, he wanted Keane to be his defence secretary but the general’s wife had just died, and Keane reluctantly declined the job. “We have a long experience in tracking high-value Islamic targets and the intelligence was very good,” he explained. “But Mossad provided the human intelligence, while we provided the other intelligence elements.” He said that the Israelis had “effectively taken up residence” in Tehran. “They resemble Persians as they speak Farsi without a hint of an accent and are well versed in the culture, customs and appropriate dress,” he said. “And they have developed scores of informants.” All this, said Keane, meant there was “no point” in the CIA attempting to have its own boots on the ground to “duplicate this sort of capability when they can rely on our close ally, which is the decision taken by previous administrations, given the multiple other threats worldwide that the CIA must entertain”. He added: “As such, we rely on Israeli human intelligence inside Iran and we don’t feel it’s necessary to replicate Mossad. We admire their dedication and continuous success they have achieved for many years. If the CIA’s human spying assets in Iran are limited, as Keane suggests, it enjoys technological superiority, deploying its Orion satellites and other overhead surveillance, such as the RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft that can scoop up communications, and Reaper intelligence-gathering drones. Both these systems have been operating near and over Iran. During the planning stage of the mission, the CIA and the National Security Agency provided back-up in tracking the supreme leader’s habits and routines. Analysis of signals intelligence data collected by an Orion, operated by the US National Reconnaissance Office and capable of listening in on mobile phone conversations from more than 22,000 miles above the Earth, supported Mossad’s daily reports of the whereabouts of Khamenei. Sources suggest that, had the Ayatollah remained in his bunker, he would still have been targeted. There was a plan to take him out there but it would have been more complex. Instead of going down this route, there was judged to be a unique and brief opportunity with the Iranian leaders all coming together. Mossad had been tracking Khamenei for months and there was a question about whether they should go ahead themselves or wait for the Americans in a joint operation. Both Mossad and the CIA knew that Khamenei had alternative sites that could enable him to survive outside Tehran. And there was a fear, too, that he might be spirited out of the capital. But Mossad’s sources discovered that the Ayatollah would be meeting his top officials in central Tehran on Saturday. Both in Israel and the US, the meeting was considered too opportunist a gift to ignore. So the decision was taken to “seize the moment”. There have been claims however, that by staying in central Tehran and not fleeing, Khamenei may have wanted to die as a martyr. US military sources suggest that, if the ultimate objective of war is to break your enemy, the targeting of leadership can have a huge impact on the way a future operation goes. That appears to be Israel’s modus operandi. On September 27, 2024, the Israeli air force carried out an airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut after receiving intelligence that the leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his main commanders would all be together at a meeting. The death of Nasrallah and many of his commanders transformed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The Israelis also learnt lessons from the 12-day war against Iran in June, when they assassinated key nuclear scientists and military commanders. In Operation Epic Fury, after the killing of Khamenei and some of his top commanders, Iranian ballistic missile launches were reduced by 50 per cent on day two, by 75 per cent on day three and by 86 per cent on day four. This was achieved not just by targeting Iran’s missiles, missile transportation systems and command and control with airstrikes but also with massive cyberattacks, US sources said. One US source said: “We knew from electronic eavesdropping that the Iranians planned to retaliate massively. Their thinking was that if on day one they could cause a lot of casualties it would begin to break the US and Israeli resolve. “They deliberately aimed most of their launches at the Gulf states. They hoped the Gulf nations would put pressure on the US to stand down because of the impact on oil prices and world economies and stability in the region.” However, the US has been knocking out Iran’s missiles, so the Iranians were prevented from carrying out the massive retaliation they had planned. The US military estimated that if Iran managed to launch salvos at the rate of 25 to 50 ballistic missiles at a time, a percentage would get through, even with the array of defences deployed. The Israelis have the Arrow anti-missile system, and the US have Thaad (terminal high-altitude area defence), Patriots and Standard SM-3 interceptors on Aegis guided missile destroyers. It turned out that Iran had only managed salvos of between two and five missiles, US sources said. Iranian drone strikes are also down by 73 per cent since the opening days of the war, according to General Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. “We will now begin to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory,” he said at a press conference this week. Keane said the mission to eliminate Khamenei showed the effectiveness of human intelligence on the ground being supplemented by electronic surveillance. “Put it all together,” he said, “and you can find anyone and track them at any given time.” PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Trump wants Iran to surrender and become rich

Donald Trump is offering Iran a future of prosperity and wealth, provided the mullahs and ayatollahs drop out of the scene and hand over the government to a nice, peace-loving, western-orientated, democracy enthusiast who will transform the country's prospects. It is as they say, a big ask. Trump will want a hand in the choice of new leader. Another big ask. It all seems unreal except that the US president genuinely believes that you can bomb a country into democracy. I expect a large percentage of the Iranian population, especially the younger generation, would be very happy to have their country back and live a life that is closer to western democracy than Islamic autocracy. But to get there, the clerics who now the country with the backing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will have other ideas. They have made it clear they are not going to surrrender to Trump's wishes, let alone consider total capitulation, as he has been demanding. If that remains the case, then it means poor Iran and the poor Iranian people who just want peace will face more and more bombing and more and more destruction. Peace is, unhappily, a long way off, thanks to the extreme clerics who run the show.

The long arm of the Trump war department

The most extraordinary event so far in Operation Epic Fury, Donald Trump's war against Iran, is the sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka. A long way from Iran - about 2,000 miles - and sunk by a US submarine firing torpedos. First, this is the first firing in anger by an American submarine since I don't know when, and, second, it shows the Pentagon, and more specifically US Central Command, is on the lookout for anything Iranian floating or flying which can be targeted. The Iranian warship, a frigate called Iris Dena, sunk about 25 miles off the southern Sri Lankan coast. It sent out a Mayday appeal and 32 of the sailors were rescued. But 80 sailors died. Because it was part of the Iranian navy I guess the Pentagon thought it was a legitimate target, following Trump's stated desire to demolish the whole of the ayatollah's navy. This was one warship that got away, until a US submarine sneaked up on it and fired a torpedo or two into its hull. The crew on board probably thought they were well out of it when they were suddenly attacked. If there are any other Iranian warships still sailing the seas, they better watch out.This is unquestionably an unequal war. Iran likes to think of itself as a big power with tons of ballistic missiles to threaten anyone who attacks the country. But the reality is, their weapons and armaments and warships are being picked off at a huge rate on a daily basis by the US and Israeli military, and soon Iran will have nothing left. This is clearly part of the Epic Fury plan. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY PAPERBACK SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

When is this war in Iran going to end?

The way the Israeli air force in particular is bombing Tehran every day, there won't be much left for the new supreme leader - supposedly the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba - to govern. wWhat's more, Israel has said it will assassinate the new leader anyway. This is serious stuff. In fact, it looks like Israel is taking over the momentum of this war, taking advantage of having the US in the air on its side pounding away as well, to do what it always wanted to do which was to remove from the planet the most serious risk to Israel's future. Right now, it seems this war is going to go on and on. Trump said four or five weeks but I reckon more like four or five months. Unless, the new ayatollah supreme leader, or his successor or his successor, depending on what Israel decides, begs for mercy and calls for a halt and formally gives up nuclear weapon ambitions and all ballistic missiles AND Iran's alignment with Hamas, Hezbollah, the nasty militias in Iraq and anyone else who benefits from Iranian money and weapons. All of which seems highly unlikely. So, does Trump really want a war lasting for months when, supposedly, he hates wars. I think there will come a point when something seriously awful happens, and the rest of the world will start to get involved to bring it all to an end. At the moment, there appears to be no effort anywhere, apart from UN entreaties, to stop the bombings. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Did Trump breach the executive order against assassinations?

In 1975 President Gerald Ford signed an Executive Order 11905 which banned any US official in whatever capacity, including the president himself, to engage in assassinations of heads of state and government leaders. It arose out of an investigation into the many attempts made by the CIA - eight in all - to cause the demise of Fidel Castro, the Cuban dictator. That executive order was reaffirmed by President Jimmy Carter and President Ronald Reagan. The executive order holds to this day. Yet, the first objective of Operation Epic Fury appears to have been the targeting and killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. So, that represents the first assassination of a head of state since that original executive order. Technically it was the Israelis who killed Khamenei because it was Israeli air force fighter bombers which dropped the bombs on the office compound where he and many of his officials and military commanders were meeting. But it was CIA intelligence which helped to pinpoint the ayatollah's whereabouts. So, it was really a joint US/Israel operation which ended with the death of Iran's leader. I don't know how the White House legal counsel will have advised the president. But some sort of justification must have been proferred. It's certainly one of the reasons why Keir Starmer refused to support the US operation. No one, apart from a few rabid Iranians in Tehran, will mourn for the loss of the ayatollah whose rule was notable for repression, brutality and an obsession with having a nuclear bomb. PLEASE BUY AND ENJOY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Will US weapons stocks survive a long war with Iran?

War is an expensive business. Even with a defence budget of $1 trillion, the US has to calculate whether it has sufficient weapons in stock to prosecute a short-to-medium length war without endangering reserves. General Dan Caine, the top military adviser to President Trump, laid out his assessment of how far the munitions stockpiles would be depleted prior to the decision by the commander-in-chief to go to war with Iran. Trump has stated publicly that the US has all the weapons it needs both to strike Iran and defend against retaliatory attacks. By all accounts, General Caine’s conclusions were more cautionary. This is not to say that on Day Three of Operation Epic Fury, the US military is running out of missiles and missile-interceptors. Far from it. As Trump pointed out, the Pentagon has pre-positioned stocks of weapons around the world, some of it on giant ships in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and Subic Bay in the Philippines. However, a military superpower with global security responsibilities has to ensure at all times that in the event of a huge-scale war, such as that envisaged between the US and China, there would be reserves of weapons of every kind available to sustain a long conflict. This is the dilemma for the likes of General Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. If the attacks on Iran continue for four or five weeks, which Trump has now predicted, the arsenal of key weapons, notably Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, Patriot anti-missile systems, warship-carried Standard SM-3 interceptors and terminal high altitude area defence missiles (Thaad), will be significantly reduced. Each of these systems which have already played a substantial role in Operation Epic Fury, cost multiple millions of dollars. Replacements can take up to a year or more to come off the production line. The Pentagon for years functioned on the basis that it could fight two theatre wars simultaneously. But with the rising threat posed by China, this was dropped. This year’s National Defence Strategy document highlighted the need to defend the homeland and deter China in the Indo-Pacific. However, the US support for Ukraine over the last four years and the confrontation with Iran – in June last year during Operation Midnight Hammer against three nuclear sites, and today in the hoped-for regime-change mission – has expended offensive and defensive weapon systems on a huge scale. In the June operation, to protect Israel and countries in the Middle East where American forces are based, the US fired more than 150 Thaad missiles, about a quarter of the total inventory of 632 of these weapons which can intercept a ballistic missile in its final flight to a target. Thaad has been used to hit missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates in the present campaign. Each Thaad interceptor costs about $13 million, and it could take two or three years to replenish stocks. The US armada of warships sent to confront Iran brought hundreds of Tomahawks with them, each costing more than $1 million. Many were fired on the first day of Operation Epic Fury. They were also used against Islamic State targets in Nigeria in December, and frequently against Houthi rebel sites in Yemen. In Operation Midnight Hammer, more than 30 Tomahawks were fired at Iranian nuclear sites. As a result, the Pentagon has had to step up Tomahawk production but it can take two years to build one. Perhaps the greatest pressure for the Pentagon has come from the demand for the PAC-3 Patriot. missile system. Nineteen countries currently have Patriots, including Ukraine which always wants more, Taiwan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Poland. One Patriot interceptor costs about $4 million and this system will be crucial for knocking out short-range Iranian missiles. Like President Putin who has been forced to convert Russia into a war economy to build enough arms to continue his fight against Ukraine, the Trump administration has had to supercharge the US defence industrial base to make sure there will be enough weapons to engage in long-term, high-intensity warfare. Reserve stocks have already been raided to cope with Ukrainian demands. Meanwhile, Operation Epic Fury is a sobering reminder to the Pentagon of the need to spend significantly more money on weapon systems that will dictate the success or failure of future military operations. “Stocks are in fact depleted and although the Pentagon has started to address the shortfalls, it will take time to get production going at a sufficient rate to replenish munitions expended in the [current] campaign,” said Eric Edelman, a former top defence policy official at the Pentagon. Iran has or had about 3,000 ballistic missiles and large stocks of Shahed long-range attack drones. To counter the threat posed by the missiles targeting Israel and Gulf states, the US has had to deploy a layered defensive wall, consisting of Thaads, Patriots and SM-3 Standard interceptors which are based on Arleigh Burke -class destroyers and in Ohio-class submarines. A Standard interceptor costs more than $10 million. One unknown is whether the Pentagon will once again turn to the 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) to hit targets. It can only be carried by the B-2 Spirit strategic bomber. US Central Command has confirmed that B-2s, flying from their base in Missouri, more than 6,500 miles from Iran, have been used in attacks. However, 14 GBU-57 MOPs were used against Iran’s three principal nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer in June, and only 20 were built at a cost of up to $20 million each. The Pentagon is now urgently attempting to have more built, and a new version is also being developed. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was Donald Trump's first objective

As soon as Donald Trump wad told by the CIA that the whereabouts of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, had been tracked to an office building in central Tehran, the long-planned attack was hurriedly brought forward. The intelligence was absolutely crucial. Not only Khamenei but a whole bunch of his top advisers were all in the same building having a big discussion about the likely confrontation with the US. It was a gold mine of potential targets for a president who wanted above all to see regime-change in Tehran, followed by an about-turn on any ambition for a nuclear weapon. Khamenei, in power for nearly 40 years, was the key figure determined to keep alive the dream of having a nuclear weapon to threaten the US. With him gone, the debate in the White House would have argued, the nuclear bomb issue could also be resolved. The intelligence received about Khamenei's whereabouts was what is called actionable intelligence. In other words, act now before the intelligence goes cold or changes. So the Israelis were told and it was the Israeli air force given the task of bombing the office compound, not the Americans. Why, it's not clear. You would have thought that Trump would have wanted an American pilot to drop the fatal bombload on the Iranian leader, but the Israelis were selected. Israeli ground-attack aircraft took off at 6am and three hours later Khamenei was dead, along with the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the defence minister and the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces. It vwas the biggest possible blow to the Tehran regime, although Iranian officials were quick to say the regime would survive without Khamenei at the helm. It was a coup for Trump and a coup for Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister. Israel had been tracking Khamenei for months, so that last bit of confirmation intelligence from the CIA was all Netanyahu needed to give the go ahead. One small thought: a dozen US F-22 Raptor stealth fighters were fowon from the UK to Israel last week. Could it be possible that any of these stealth bombers also took part in the killing of Khamenei. I'd be surprised if they weren't. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTSONES.

Trump's war on Iran

The bombs started to drop early this monring and look set to be falling on Tehran and other cities where there are military and regime targets for the next week or so. This is a war which Trump chose. He diodn't seek Congressional approval, althpugh Marco Riubio, the secretary of state, did paint a pretty obvious picture of imminent war when he addressed the eight senior members of the Senate and House of Reprresentative intelligence and armed services committees a few days ago. Whether an air campaign will help Trump to meet his objectives which include regime-change is another matter. The Iranians have responded by launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Dubai, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It looks as if the US and Israel together have tried to target the suspected hideaway of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the so-called Supreme Leader who has total authority over everything the Iranian military does. But there have been no reports of his demise. The more Iran's air defences are battered, the mnore unequal the war will become, and the US and Israel will be able to help themselves to whichever targets they choose. Provided Iran fails with its ballistic-missile launches - most of which have been intercepted so far - this war will be a one-way destruction path. Trump no doubt will soon be claiming victory. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. CHECK OUT AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTONES.

JD Vance dismisses fear of a wider Middle East war

One assumes the US vice president and everyone else in the Trump administration is getting the same intelligence briefings about what might happen if America attacks Iran. Trump said General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would be easy, and now JD Vance is dismissing any concern that a strike by American forces would provoke a wider war in the Middle East. Let's hope Vance is right but judging by the bellicose words coming out of Tehran, the ayatollahs are planning for massive retaliation if the US goes ahead with an attack in the next few days or weeks. Well, they would, wouldn't they, and it might be all blather. But the fact is, there has to be a real risk that a strike by the US now might lead to a prolonged military confrontation that could draw in other countries. The last time the US attacked Iran in June last year, Tehran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and some against a US base in Qatar. If the US strike is very limited, aimed at persuading Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, then it might not lead to a wider war. But Trump has amassed such a large armada of warships and bombers in the region that it seems unlikely he has in mind just a token attack. What he says will be limited just means the bombing raids will last for days rather than months. But that could provoke Tehran to respond in a way that would lead to serious escalation. Then everything will get unpredictable.

Trump in attack mode vis a vis Iran

President Trump has given every indication that he plans to launch limited bombing raids on selected Iranian military targets to encourage the Tehran regime to bow to his wishes. However, based on Iran’s previous responses to US and Israeli military strikes and the determination of the regime to hang on to power, Trump could find himself confronting a larger-scale war with potentially unpredictable consequences, none of which would meet the president’s primary objective – to force Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to stop the country’s uranium-enrichment programme. As a result of this uncertainty, why is Trump so eager now to resort to military action once again? Does he really think it will be easy, as he claims his top military adviser, General Dan Kaine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, suggested? What are Trump’s mission objectives? It could be argued that the main mission, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, has already been achieved. Operation Midnight Hammer last June caused severe damage to Iran’s three main nuclear plants. Trump warned at the time he would come back for more if Iran tried to rebuild the facilities. But there is no evidence that any of the targeted plants are being reconstructed, let alone operational. So, an attack on the crippled nuclear sites would be largely symbolic. Far greater a threat are Iran’s ballistic missiles which have multiplied since Operation Midnight Hammer. Missile production plants, targeted in the joint US/Israeli raids in June, were damaged but not beyond repair, and now, according to Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, “our missile power today far surpasses that of the 12-day war [the June attacks]”. Medium and intermediate-range ballistic missile launchers are reported to have been deployed to western and southern coastline positions in readiness for attacks on US forces in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, and against Israel. If regime-change is on Trump’s list of mission objectives, a limited bombing campaign would not achieve that. Long-lasting regime change requires “boots on the ground”, and Trump is not going to order troops into Iran. Only Israel, with its unique Mossad capabilities embedded in Iran, could attempt a ground-based targeting of regime heads. But even if partially successful, it would not bring about a new-look government in Tehran which would satisfyTrump. Is the US military ready and what difference has it made that the UK has banned bombing flights from British bases? Judging by the massive redeployments of fighter aircraft and bombers in recent weeks, sufficient firepower is now in place for a short-lived attack operation. But the UK government decision and similar restraints imposed by countries in the Middle East (notably Jordan and Qatar) have forced US Central Command – in charge of the planned strikes – to rewrite the mission blueprint. RAF Fairford, RAF Lakenheath and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean had to be crossed off. As a result, a dozen F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, one of America’s most advanced combat jets, flew out of the UK last week and are now based in Israel which, unlike Britain, will be happy to have the aircraft on its territory, either for bombing raids on Iran or to help protect Israeli cities from retaliatory strikes by Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles. Diego Garcia, the key British-owned (still) base for US long-range strategic bombing missions, is currently full of American military aircraft, notably F-16s and a range of air-refuelling tankers, but no B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. The F-16s would be there to protect Diego Garcia from Iranian attack. Six B-2s arrived in Diego Garcia in April last year for attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, after permission was granted by the UK government. This time, as with the Midnight Hammer operation last June, if B-2s are used, they will have to fly from their base in Missouri – a round trip of about 13,700 miles, double the distance from Diego Garcia and back. Why now and what could go wrong? A limited strike, especially if the US is joined by the Israeli air force, would unquestionably cause huge damage to targeted sites in Iran. The US has Tomahawk cruise missiles on board many of the 17 or so warships in the region, as well as the most advanced precision weapons carried by ground-attack aircraft on the two nuclear-powered carriers off Iran and in the eastern Mediterranean. Trump it seems was initially stirred to action by the deaths of thousands of protesters opposing the Tehran regime. But the build-up of US firepower has laid the foundations for a potential historic confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Is this really what Trump wanted, or has the massive show of force taken over the debate and added a momentum too rapid to stop? Prior to war, military commanders give their assessment of likely casualties. The worst-case scenario might be grim reading. In recent confrontations, Iran retaliated in relatively low--profile manner. The deployment of ballistic-missile launchers along the coast suggests Tehran has a mind to answer back with maximum force. American and Israeli lives will be at risk. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Four years of war and Ukraine still resilient

In his worst nightmare, Vladimir Putin could not have imagined that after four years of attacking Ukraine with everything bar tactical nuclear weapons, his neighbour would still be fighting back, and, what's more, launching long-range drones and missiles into Russian territory. Ukraine has been hit so relentlessly with Putin's bombs and missiles that the country, in the depth of a freezing winter, has only 60 per cent power supply to keep the lights and radiators working. Amd yet, Ukraine and the Ukrainian people have never given up and are intent on striking back however long it takes. This won't lead to victory, as some Ukrainian commanders still insist is possible, but the resilience and determination shown means Putin is facing a for-ever war. He may have a war economy to keep his arms factories going, but is he seriously prepared to prosecute this war for another year, two years, three years or much longer. Russia is already struggling economically and the casualty level is so high that the figure of 1.2 million dead, injured or missing, seems realistic. In the last year, the Russian army in Ukraine has managed just a few metres of land-grabbing a week. And this sort of advance after four years! If Kyiv is sensible, it should now spend much more time attacking Russia over the border, bringing the war closer and closer to Moscow. No restraint is required any longer because Putin has shown no interest in doing a deal. So, Ukraine has only one way forward. Give the Russians a real taste of their own medicine. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK, WITH A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME. AMAZON, RNWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Trump's top military man not happy abut attacking Iran

If it's true that General Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Donald Trump's top military adviser, is unsure about the wisdom of attacking Iran, will the president listen to him? Trump doesn't like to be told what not to do, he wants to know how to do what he wants to do. So, General Caine better watch his step if he's warning that a strike on Iran might not be that easy. Well, of course it won't be easy, especially if the objective is to end the regime and turn Iran into a western-loving nation. You can't do that with a bombing campaign. It;s not the wyt it works. But what Caine seems to be worried about it is the likelihood of a war spreading throught the Middle East and lots of people being killed in lots of countries, including Americans. Everyone in Washington is trying to tell Trump that Iran won't be another Venezuela. But I guess Trump knows that. But the key thing here is, Trump wants a quick in and out war where the damage is so great for Iran the ayatollahs will concede and all will turn out fine.Then along comes his top military man who says, no, Mr President, it won't be like that, it could go aon and on and, by the way, we're pretty low on arms because of Ukraine and the previous op against Iran eight months ago. So, a long campaign against Iran could seriously reduce stocks. None of these arguments will hold water if the president is determined to hit Tehran hard. He will expect the Pentagon to deliver the goods, and to stop whingeing. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Can anything stop a Trump attack on Iran?

Normally, in fact always, the US president, current and past, wants to know whether a war, about to be launched, will definitely lead to victory. If the odds are against you, you don't want, as president of the most powerful nation on earth, to contemplate the possibility of defeat or failure. Vietnam has to be the marker for all US presidents. It was a disastrous failure in every possible way. Afghanistan was a failure. Iraq was disastrous but technically not a failure. Venezuela was a success, a huge success, militarily, and so far, diplomatically. A war with Iran has no guarantee of success. Of course, the US will be able to prosecute massive attacks and cause huge damage, and even, possibly, effect a change in leadership in Tehran. But there are no gaurantees it will be a victory for Donald Trump for a number of reasons: even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme leader, is assassinated/exiled, another Shia cleric will succeed him and carry on the fight. There will be no regime-change as such, unless the US is prepared to send tens of thousands of troops to defeat the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the battlefield. That's not going to happen. So, in fact, what a US military strike from the air and from warships will do is cause a lot of destruction and probably many deaths but with the Tehran regim, albeit with different people, still in business and still hoping one day to develop a nuclear bomb. They have the scientists and engineers to do it. Iran also has the backing of Russia and China, so Tehran won't be isolated. So, if there is no guarantee of victory, why will Trump go ahead? Probably because he thinks he WILL succeed. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER IN PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Is Iran resigned to war with the US?

No one expects Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suddenly to capitulate and give in to all of the demands made by Donal dTrump. It's just not going to happen. By all accounts, Khamemei is prepared to die, anticipating a likjly assassination plot by the US military in the event of war, and has already made preparations for his successor. So if the Supreme Leader has realised war is inevitable, Trump is not going to win this confrontation by diplomacy. He will have to go to war to meet his objectives. This is a sobering conclusion but, I fear, realistic. It means that all the talking so far is fairly pointless. Trump wants a denuclearised Iran with only limited ballistic missiles, and an immasculated or changed regime which will no longer threaten the world in any way. It looks like Khamenei is preparing his country for war and retaliation, probably against both Israel and US military bases in the Middle East. Ballistic missile launchers have been lined up in the western and southern areas of Iran to carry out these retaliatory strikes. So, now it's a just a question of when Trump orders the bombers to set off. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

Seventeen US warships are waiting for war off Iran

The armada that was built up in the Caribbean to snatch Nicolas Maduro in his pyjamas at a bunker home in Caracas was impressive enough, with an aircraft carrier and around 11 warships and more than 100 aircraft of one sort or another. Now we have Donald Trump's next and imminent military venture, to bomb Iran and oust the regime. For this much much bigger operation, Trump has assembled two aircraft carrier strike groups, a total of 17 warships, dozens of fighter aircraft and the rest of the paraphernalia required for a superpower military mission Trump says he doesn't want to resort to force, he would prefer a diplomatic deal but he has set the marker so high, Tehran and the ayatollahs are never going to agree. So, military force it will be. With the huge firepower available, there shouldn't be any doubt that Iran is going to have a terrifying few weeks once the go ahead has been given. Plus, Israel is almost bpund to join in. Assuming this scenario is correct, I would imagine the first strikes will focus on taking out as many ballistic missile sites and ballistic missile plants as possible to reduce the threat of a massive response from Iran against Israel and US forces in the Middle East. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has warned that Iran will sink one of the aircraft carriers. But this is more bluster than genuinbe threat. The US has surrounded the carriers with anti-missile protection on other warships, and the outcome of an American attack is not difficult to predict. Iran will be the huge and overwhelming loser. Will Tehran cave in and agree a humiliating settlement before the first bomb has dropped, or will it, unwisely, take on the might of the US military and try to score a few hits? If Iran follows the latter course, Trump will hit back even harder. There won't be a wider war throughout the Middle East, as so many people are predicting, it will be total defeat for Khamenei and his regime. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY SPY THRILLER PAPERBACK. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Ban on use of UK bases for Iran attack is staggering

We don't know exactly how the conversation went between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer earlier this week but the US president came away with a flea in his ear. He was told, according to the illustrious Times, that if he wanted to use RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean for planned bombing raids on Iran, he could forget it. The UK government, Starmer apparently said, was not going to authorise either base for attacks. In political, diplomatic, military, strategic terms, this is a staggering decision, one that will have angered Trump beyond words. If Trump does order more strikes on Iran, then the US will definitely want to use Fairford and Diego Garcia. Both these bases are specifically structured and adapted for American bombers, from B-2 strategic aircraft to F-22 ground-attack jets, and because both bases are around 2,500 miles from Iran, as opposed to 6,500 miles from the US to Iran, it makes a helluva difference in terms of combat bombing runs, logistics, wear and tear on aircraft and gas costs. The US military can still go ahead with the strikes on Iran without the two bases, but it won't be so easy, and to have an ally, such as Britain, refuse to allow key bases to be used is a massive slap in the face. Unless Starmer changes his mind, this is going to have a longlasting negative effect on relations with Washington while Trump is in the White House. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, THE SECOND IN A PLANNED TRILOGY STARRING PART-TIME SPY REBECCA STRONG.

Britain in state of turmoil

The arrest and detention of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, former Prince Andrew, ex-Duke of York, younger brother of King Charles, still eighth in line to the throne, is the latest development in a series of ups and downs, mostly downs, which have hit this country like a hurricane and given the impression to the rest of the world that we are in turmoil. Actually, we are in turmoil. Andrew has been caught up in the Jeffery Epstein scandal because of his friendship with the paedophile and convicted sex offender. The former prince is currently sitting in a police cell! In addition, Donald Trump has turned on Keir Starmer over the Labour Government's bizarre and unnecessary handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (costing us taxpayers £35 billion), the Starmer administration has now carried out 14 U-turns on major policy issues, the UK's former ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, is being investigated by the police over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and an allegation that when Business Secretary in the Labour government of Gordon Brown, he passed confidential Cabinet data to Epstein; the roads througout the country are pitted with potholes and the size of the welfare state - with rising youth unemployment and more and more people off work for mental health reasons - is growing by the day. The local elections are due in May and all the signs are that Nigel Farage and his Reform party will win win win. Starmer will then be pushed out and we'll get Angela Rayner as our unelected new prime minister. Turmoil indeed. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, YOU WILL LOVE IT. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

No end in sight of the war in Ukraine

Whatever the Americans say about "meaningful progress" in the latest talks to stop the war in Ukraine, in reality Donald Trump's two main envoys, Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, are no closer to a settlement than they were when negotiations began. The two envoys, neither of whom are trained diplomats, are basically Trump message-carriers, repeating endlessly the need to find a solution based on transfer of land. Poor Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, must feel sick at heart that every time his negotiators sit down for talks with the Russians, they argue for hours about compromise but pretty much all on the Ukrainian side, not the Russians who of course started the war in the first place. Zelensky said it was "unfair" that the Americans didn't insist on the Russians compromising, too. The trouble is, Putin is not going to compromise, not on the question of the Donbas regio in eastern Ukraine. He wants all of it and for Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the bits they still control.That message from the Kremlin hasn't changed. So it's difficult to see what was "meaningful" in the latest talks in Geneva. I anticipate Putin will get even tougher with his territorial demands because he will hope that Trump will become distracted by Iran and the prospects of a wir within the next month or so. Putin isn't going to do Trump any favours by suddenly agreeing to compromise on the land issue. So, nothing of note is going to happen in the Geneva talks, just more arguing round and round in familiar circles. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER STARRING REBECCA STRONG. AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS

The world cannot afford a nuclear-armed Iran

If there is any US president who is actually going to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, it is probably Donald Trump. All his predecessors vowed that Iran could never become a nuclear power but did nothing about it except try to use diplomacy and sanctions to restrain Tehran's ambitions. Obama went the furthest with his 2015 deal. But, actually, the small print still allowed Iran to restart its uranium-enrichment programme eventually. The hope was that Iran would change its ambitions altogether and with the lifting of sanctions give up the nukes idea and concentrate on developing a better, more flourishing country. But that was somewhat naive because we are talking here about the most extreme form of Islamic revolitionary politics, and successive Supreme Leaders said categorically it was the right of the Iranian nation to enrich uranium. So, even if Obama's deal had survived the arrival of Trump in the White House in 2016, it was still a risk that Iran would go nuclear in the distant future. Now, we are in a totally different situation, with Trump making it clear that, unlike his predecessors, he is ready to bomb Iran to bits to stop the country continuing to be a menace to global security. I am begininng to think that whatever Iran comes up with at the reopening of talks with the US, nothing will be good enough to stop the bombing. So in the next month or so, there will probably be a whole lot of bombing. Will it fnally end Tehran's ambition to be nuclear and a pain in the neck in the Middle East, or will it just lead to more war, and an even more determined Iran? PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER - AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES

Should the UK and France provide nuclear cover for Europe?

Both the UK and France have what is called a minimum nuclear deterrent. In other words, unlike the US and Russia which have several thousand nuclear warheads, the British and French arsenals have just enough to deter an enemy such as Russia (Uk, 225 and France, 290). But with the US under Donald Trump urging Europe to spend more and more on defence and not to rely on American to rush to their aid at every possible crisis moment, could and should the Brits and French restructure their nuke arsenals to provide a broad cover for Europe as a whole? It might sound relatively straightforward but of course it isn't. At what point, for example, would the UK and/or France decide it would be justified to threaten to fire nuclear missiles at Russia if Moscow invaded Poland or Latvia or Finland? At present the UK and France retain independent nuclear deterrents, ready to be used in the event of a possible crushing defeat in a conventional war. But the UK and France would not resort to the nuclear option unless the very existence of the two countries was at risk. It is, if you like, a selfish deterrent. It covers the sovereignty of the UK and France but not of the rest of Europe. The US, on the other hand, has committed its nuclear weapons to form a deterrent umbrella over the whole of the North American continent AND Europe. It's the ultimate protection. But now there has to be doubt about whether the Trump administration would launch anything nuclear if some part or all parts of Europe came under mass conventional or nuclear attack. Nuclear deterrence has a theology all of its own and it's changing fast. What we can't have is other members of Europe deciding to go nuclear, developing their own arsenals. That would lead to nuclear proliferation across the globe. For the UK and France to provide a European nuclear umbrella, both nations would need to double or triple their warhead arsenals. That would also lead to proliferation elsewhere and make the world an even more dangerous place. And the costs would be huge, albeit the rest of Europe would be expected to contribute financially. On the whole, it's not a good idea. Spend a lot more on conventional defence and create deterrence that way. BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEE AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.