The world is totally divided between democrats and dictators

Yet another example has come to light of how the world is divided between democratially-elected countries and autocratically-orchestrated countries. Twas ever thus, especially in the Cold War but we are in a new era and growing proof of this global divide just makes the planet that much more dangerous. The latest example is Venezuela. Ruled by the dictator Nicolas Maduro since he came to power in 2013, a so-called election has taken place and Maduro was reelected but only after massive rigging of the votes. So he stays in power and will continue to ruin the country's economy which he has done so successfully in the past decade. Millions of Venezuelans have fled the country, leaving behind their homes and possessions to try and find a safer and more hopeful life. So any right-minded international leader would condemn the fraudulent election. But of course Russia and China both leapt in to give their congratulations and support to Maduro. Vladimir Putin and Xi Zinping don't worry about fraud and ruined economies and desperate families and violent repression. They want to show the world, and in particular Washington, that democracy is outdated and that dictatorships are best and here to stay. So they offer their devotion to Maduro, even as he sends in his troops to attack protesters and kill them in the streets. The US should have done something about Venezuela a long time ago but half-heartedly supported the then opposition leader but without any form of back-up. Maduro, backed up by Russia and Cuba, survived easily and stuck two fingers at Washington and his own people. Now Venezuela is doomed and will never recover.

A full war between Israel and Hezbollah is imminent or is it?

It seems like Israel and Hezbollah are always on the point of going to full-scale war. Since the Hamas atrocities in Israel on October 7 and the retaliatory war in Gaza, the threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon has increased on a weekly basis. The northern front has been a potential war zone for Israel for so long. Now it's definitely getting worse and after the rocket attack on the school football pitch in the Golan Heights which killed 12 children, the likelihood of a major conflict is almost inevitable. And yet Washington is taking a very cool sort of approach implying that beneath the surface and behind the scenes there is a massive diplomatic push going on to prevent a war. John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council and an adviser to President Biden, adopted a very cool approach yesterday when asked whether war was inevitable. He said not, and indicated diplomacy was the top priority. How you do diplomacy with Hzxbollah I don't know, especially as it's backed by Iran. But Washington must have some cards to play which are holding back a disastrous confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to take revenge against Hezbollah for the deaths of the children, so there will be retaliatory strikes. But a troop invasion of southern Lebanon? That's what Washington is trying to stop. John Kirby knows what's going on diplomatically but he's not saying. All will depend on Netanyahu and what he approves. After meeting Biden and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during last week's trip to the US, perhaps he will go for a more modest revenge attack. Israel really cannot afford to wage two wars at the same time right now.

Trump never laughs!

In comparison with Kamala Harris whose broad grin and cheerful face are there for all to see every day, Donald Trump is not a grinner, not a smiler and definitely never a laugher. It's one of the weird things about Trump which has been particularly noticed by Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota who revealed this in a TV interview. It's true, Trump is famous for his scowls, his angry looks, his strangely pursed lips, his fist pumps and his pointing. But have you ever heard him laugh? I don't think so. It's one of the many things now being given minute examination. His running-mate JD Vance also never looks particularly happy, although you can understand it when so many very weird things are coming out of the woodwork about his past life and past comments on social media. This guy is definitely weird. Provided she doesn't do or say anything really stupid or embarrassing over the next three and a bit months, I think Kamala Harris could smile her way into the White House in November. Trump these days looks old, grumpy and vengeful. Not good characteristics to be the next president of the United States.

Trump says only he can prevent a Third World War

After his meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, at his resort in Florida, Donald Trump gave a pretty alarming prediction. He told reporters that if he wasn't elected as president in November, there would be a major Middle East war and probably a Third World War. Or to put it another way, if Kamala Harris is elected in November, there would be a major war in the Middle East and a Third World War. That is what he is implying. He has always said he would end the war in Ukraine even before taking up office (in January 2025), if he wins the election, and he has encouraged Netanyahu to fnish off the job in Gaza as quickly as possible. The only problem with dismissing Trump's prediction of a Third wWrld War unless he is sitting in the Oval Office is that a lot of other people recently have been warning about the threat of a Third wWrld War, including the new head of the British Army. So, is Kamala Harris ready to step in and ensure there is no Third World War? Or will she follow Joe Biden and keep arming Ukraine for as long as it takes to defeat Russia, and would she consider not arming Israel because of her concern about Palestinian deaths? We don't yet know the answer to these questions, nor do we know what cunning scheme Trump has up his sleeve to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.

Why did the Obamas take so long to endorse Kamala Harris?

Barack and Michelle Obama have at last endorsed Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination. It took them five days to ring her and in a publicised call congratulated her and promised their endorsement. Kamala was duly gratified. But she, like everyone , must have been thinking: "Why did you take so long?" Biden endorsed her straightaway, so did Nancy Pelosi, the legendary former Speaker of the House. The Obamas sounded like it was the simplest thing to make the call and wish her well but what was going on between Sunday when Biden stepped down and today when they picked up the phone? By all accounts they weren't happy with Biden's decision to endorse her without considering the alternative which was to hold a primary with other candidates coming forward. In other words, they didn't really rate Kamala and wanted others to get a chance to go for the nomination. But Biden's announcement put paid to that, so the Obamas had little choice but to phone and endorse Kamala or risk the damaging whispers that would have built up into a roar if they remained silent. Did they want Gretchen Whitmer, the feisty governor of Michigan to get the nomination? I suspect they did.

Joe Biden is fading into the background

It's quite extraordinary how the mood has changed in Washington since Joe Biden's announacement about stepping down from the election race and handing over to Kamala Harris. Now it's all about Kamala, and poor old Joe is fading fast into the background and into retirement. There is a renewed energy in the Democratic campaign, Kamala is everywhere and she looks and sounds like she is yearning to be president. Biden still has just under six months to go before he officially ends his term of office but it's like he has gone already. Donald Trump has called for him to go now but that's not going to happen, unless he has a serious health scare, and if so, Kamala would take over and get an even better feel of what it's like to be the Number 1 in the White House instead of the Number 2. Meanwhile, her daily diary has been transformed into a non-stop helter-skelter list of speeches and visits and interviews and phone calls. Biden will carry on but all the attention will stay on Kamala. Poor Joe. Even his exit explanation statement from the White House was truly sad because his voice was simply not up to it. The weak, whispering voice just emphasised to everyone in and out of the White House that he had done the right thing by dropping out of the race for a second term.

Trump reverts to being an attack dog

It didn't take long. For a moment everyone, including possibly Donald Trump himself, thought the Milwaukee assassination attempt would change him for good. His call for unity was the first real sign that maybe he was going to change his ways and try and be nice to everyone for the sake of the country. But that was delusionary. The old Trump was back in the swing pretty rapidly, bad-mouthing Kamala Harris and calling her a liar. Admittedly the vice president and now Democratic nominee for the White House has been replying with some stinging stuff about Trump, the convicted felon, speaking, as she does, as a former attorney and prosecutor. She knows all about people like Trump. But Trump really has missed his chance. It's just possible that if he had kept up his calls for unity and had been a little less abrasive about Kamala, he might have built a fresh momentum to encourage doubters aqnd independents to vote for him. As it is, he has been spitting insults whenever he has the chance, either in speeches or on social media and everyone in America, I assume, has come to the same conclusion. Trump, the same old Trump, is back. His miraculous survival at Milwaukee has not changed him after all. I think the reason for this is because he now genuinely fears that his march to the White House could be obstructed by this fine-looking, much younger, much more smiley woman who could actually beat him in November. So from now on Trump is going to be the attack dog we've been used to for such a long time.

Will Americans vote for a black woman to be president?

It has to be asked. Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic nominee after Joe Biden's pull-out and she has a lot going for her. She's 59, nearly 20 years younger than Donald Trump, she has the experience of being the vice president for more than three years, she has the vast majority of Democrats endorsing her and she looks great. The fact that she is a woman of colour should make no difference but there may be a significant percentage of American voters who are not yet ready to choose a black woman for president. Well, they voted for Barack Obama, the first black male president, so why not a black woman? To put it simply, it's because the new Democratic nominee-designate is black AND a woman. I don't know whether to describe this challenge for some American voters as evidence of racial prejudice or just plain "not in my lifetime thank you". It will be a problem for Kamala Harris, but with such resounding support for her in the Democratic party, it's a challenge she should be able to overcome. But she will have to perform much much better than any man would have to when faced with Trump as an adversary. It's totally unfair but realistic. There is enough misogeny around to make it difficult for her as she campaigns around the country. I would like to nsay how brilliant it would be if she chose a woman to be herrunning-mate but I guess that really would be too much for many male voters, and probably female ones too in parts of the country. But I have to say I don't see a potential president among the would-be male vice president short lists doing the rounds.

The drop-out by Joe Biden is what Trump didn't want

Donald Trump was in victory mode while the faltering, wayward, incomprehensible Joe Biden was mumbling away at the microphone as his rival for the White House. Now that has all changed. Now Trump is the Old Man. Whether it's Kamala Harris or some other Democrat, his rival is going to be younger, fresher, more healthy-looking and not facing any federal charges. I have no doubt Trump and his team will try to destroy Vice President Kamala Harris as a no-hoper but she has been Biden's deputy for more than three years, so she must have picked up a lot of what the job entails. Obviously she is going to have to perform a helluva lot better than Biden at the microphone, particularly during any TV debate with Trump. But Trump has recently shown tendencies to mumble and jumble his words and has been speaking (ranting on) during his speeches for so long that even the adoring crowds started to look at their watches. So, for once, Trump is on the back foot. He has been calling for Biden to go but now he's going, Trump nust be biting his tongue. He is still odds-on to win the election but if Harris does well over the next few weeks, it could be a very different story. Potentially there could be an open debate about who takes over from Biden when the Democrats hold their convention in Chicago next month but it seems unlikely and it would be a big mistake. Rally round Kamala has to be the call from the convention. Then that big smile might just be wiped off Trump's face.

Now Trump joins in: why was that gunman on the roof?

A week has gone by and still no one has given an answer to the biggest question of all right now: why was Donald Trump's would-be assassin able to climb on to the roof of a building within range of the former president and fire off four rounds? Trump was initially full of praise for the Secret Service who bounced on to the stage and covered his body within seconds of the first bullet skimming through the top part of Trump's right ear. But now he has begun asking the same question as every one else. Why was the gunman on that roof? And why, when people wandering around outside the convention spotted the man lying on the roof with a rifle, wasn't the alarm raised instantly? Like a phone call to the Secret Service? There's a lot of speculation about the roof being in a blind spot fronted by trees that obscured the Secret Service's view. But the fact is, as soon as those shots rang out, a Secret Service sniper on a roof adjoining where Trump had been standing shot dead the gunman. So he must have had a clear line of sight. As for that rubbish about the gunman's roof being too dodgy, health and safety-wise, for a Trump sniper to lie on, if an assassin could do it, why not one of Trump's protectors? One can only conclude with that sort of explanation that no president or former president in the United States is safe.

Would Trump go to Taiwan's defence?

The prospect of a second Donald Trump administration has put the fear of God into America’s allies around the world. The biggest question being raised is: would the United States heave up the drawbridge and let others do the dirty work to keep the planet safe from global war? Comments made by Trump seem to suggest he still has no love for Nato, that Taiwan should fend for itself if attacked by mainland China and that Ukraine should give up the territory it has lost to the Russian invaders in return for a ceasefire and forgo any ambition to join the western alliance. On the face of it, even if elements of this Trumpian foreign policy vision were to be implemented, it would represent one of the starkest changes in America’s relations with allies and partners in modern times. The reality is probably not quite so bleak. Trump may have a history of unpredictability and unexpected surprises. One has only to remember his extraordinary, albeit abortive, charm offensive with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. However, the one topic where he demonstrated implacable consistency was his demand that allies “play fair” and spend significantly more money on defence. Although, during his term in office as the 45th president between 2017and 2021, he was thinking principally about Nato, he is now expanding his mantra to embrace Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and anywhere else where American taxpayer dollars are being spent to deter aggression by regional adversaries. Taiwan is a case in point. In an interview with Bloomberg, Trump said it was time Taiwan spent more on defending itself from the rising threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and that Taipei should reimburse the US for the huge cost of maintaining a deterrent presence in the region. When he pointed out that Taiwan was 6,500 miles away from the US and only 68 miles from China, some observers interpreted this as a sign that under a Trump administration, the US would not necessarily jump to the island’s defence if the PLA launched an invasion. Under President Biden, the long-held policy of strategic ambiguity on what the US might do if China tried to occupy Taiwan has become more strategic and less ambiguous. Biden has stated on several occasions when asked that he would go to Taiwan’s aid under such circumstances, presumably with aircraft carriers., anti-ship missiles and the US Marine Corps in mind. Trump has promised so such intervention. But judging by his past hawkish approach to China on trade and the PLA’s expansionist endeavours in the South China Sea, it would seem unlikely that a Trump administration would allow Beijing to get away with seizing, or trying to seize, Taiwan. It would also upset the Republican party whose hierarchy has always been staunch supporters of Taiwan and critical of Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions in the region. Senator Marco Rubio who was on the short list to be Trump’s running-mate and has considerable experience as a senior member of the Senate foreign relations committee, advised reporters on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee that Trump would continue to back Taiwan, as he did during his time in office. So, it’s down to money, not whether Trump would send for the Marines. If he were to authorise military action to defend Taiwan against the PLA, he would presumably expect Taiwan to pay for or contribute towards the cost. Trump has sent out the same message to South Korea and Japan, where the US currently has a combined total of around 82,000 troops stationed. Trump wants more money for the burden of protecting these allies from aggression by China and North Korea. This argument of greater burden-sharing comes at an even greater price for Europe, where, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US has increased its troop presence to more than 100,000, and is planning to deploy land-based Tomahawk and hypersonic missiles to Germany to defend Nato allies and deter further Russian aggression. Much was made of Trump’s threat to pull the US out of Nato when he became president in January 2021. But the alarm was short-lived. He banged on about the Nato members who had failed to spend the required two per cent on defence and said it was unfair that America, a military superpower notwithstanding, should have to spend so much more than anyone else in the alliance. In fact, a lot more than the rest of the alliance put together. There are still eight Nato countries who have failed to reach the two per cent target, including Canada, Italy and Spain. They must expect a hard time from a second Trump administration. What’s more, a reelected Trump might well use the first Nato summit under his leadership to push for 3.5 per cent of GDP across the board. This is what the US spends and a significant proportion of it is devoted to defending Europe. If Trump’s pledge to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office failed to materialise , no doubt he would demand Europe pay out a much larger slice of the burden to stop Russia from seizing more of its neighbour’s sovereign territory.

Did God save Donald Trump?

The man who wants and expects to become the 47th president of the United States has declared that God is on his side which is why he survived the assassination attemnpt. That sort of comment will really go down well with Republican voters and might even make some Democratic voters think twice about whether, after all, to swap their allegiance to the man who miraculously dodged a bullet. God and religion and faith are all key ingredients in the American way of life, far more so than in Britain where religion is having a hard time. The churches are emptying. In the US, God plays a part in politics but rarely in Britain. Tony Blair when he was Labour prime minister, famously glanced upwards to the heavens when he was asked a question about his leadership success. But usually politicians steer clear of religion in this country. In the US it's a very different story. So Trump's gratitude to God for saving his life will run true for many Americans. After all, every president in US history has always said at the end of a speech or address, God Bless America. Now the cry will be God Bless Trump!

The men in grey suits have come for Joe Biden

It's a traditional expression for when the leader in Britain gets a visit from a group of so-called cabinet colleagues demanding his or her resignation. Margaret Thatcher had her visit from the men in grey suits and before long she found she had little choice but to step down. Now it's happening to Joe Biden. Despite his determination to stay put and fight on for another four years in the White House, all the top hierarchy of the Democratic party have either phoned or paid a visit and made the case for the president to step aside for a younger and less faltering candidate to take on Donald Trump. It's a desperate time for poor Joe. Nancy Pelosi, hardly a man in a grey suit, but still with the same message, suggested to Biden that he might think about considering handing over. The two top dogs of the Democratic party, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, were more blunt. They made it clear they didn't think Biden could beat Trump, especially not now after his miraculous survival from the assassination attempt. Time is running out for the Democrats who want Biden out. It's really tough on Biden. He appears to genuinely think he's still fine to take on and defeat Trump. But almost no one else believes it any longer.

Everyone in the Republican party is now a Trumper

Even Trump's strongest critics in the Republican party are now singing his praises. It's the most extraordinary and triumphant moment for the Trump campaign. One bullet that misses and he is the biggest hero the party has ever had. Even the worshipped Ronald Reagan is being pushed into the background. To be honest I've haven't heard what Mitt Romney thinks but Trump's strongest critic is probably keeping very quiet. This is not to downplay the assassination attempt. It was a miracle Trump turned away just at the moment the trigger was pulled by the sniper. It was just like that scene in The Day of the Jackal film when General de Gaulle bowed his head at the precise moment when the Jackal fired his rifle and missed. The repercussions, however, have been so dramatic that there cannot be a commentator on the planet who now believes Joe Biden will win the election in November.It may not unite the United States of America but it sure has united the Republican party. All the also-rans in the election campaign have pledged their loyalty to Trump. Had there not been the assassination attempt, I suspect the decision by Trump to choose Senator JD Vance as his running-mate might have caused a lot more angst within the Republican party. As it is, the pairing of Trump and Vance is being seen as a guaranteed winning combination for November. And so it will prove to be.

The Trump and Vance show

JD Vance has come full circle and is now nearly at the top of the tree. From a fervent Never Trumper he is today a fervent Always Trumper. The road to Damascus is heavily crowded with people like Vance who see the light or in his case sees which way the political wind is blowing and jumps ship to the winner-takes-all leader. There's not much point in being an ambitious Republican politician and not being a Trumper. Vance realised this and is now so MAGA-orientated he is almost even more Trump than Trump. This, of course, is what Trump wants. He wants to do his four years in the White House and then hand over to somneone who will pledge to continue the MAGA ideology. Vance was the only short-list candidate who could guarantee that. So now it's the Trump-Vance show heading remorselessly towards the White House in November. Why Vance calls himself JD Vance is a mystery but he obviously likes it. But JD stands for James David, two perfectly good and ordinary names, so why stick with the initials? I bet it annoys Trump. He didn't like Vance's beard when he was considering his running-mate candidates. But Vance didn't shave it off and still calls himself JD. The Biden-Kamala Harris combination looks pretty mild and bland compared with these two. The election is a done deal!

How the Democratic election campaign has now been trumped

The biggest campaign cry for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party had little to do with the president's achievements but everything to do with stopping Donald Trump from entering the White House and destroying America's democracy and democratic values. It was a campaign involving scare tactics, warning the American people about the dangers of having someone like Trump in charge. All that has now gone and the Biden campaign has not much left to shout about. Trump survived an assassination attempt and is now calling for unity in the country. Trump wants to unify the country!!! He loves everyone. In his nomination speech in Milwaukee today he will sound a very different person. He has already revealed he has thrown out his planned speech which would have targeted Biden in highly personal terms. Now it's all about unity although I have no doubt he will claim to be the only one capable of unifying the country, difficult though that is to envisage. The shooting by a deranged 20-year-old has finally scuppered Biden's chances of reelection because Trump is a changed man. He was so close to a brutal death but survived and he now thinks that the miracle, God-delivered or not, was a true sign that he is the chosen one for the Whote House. How can Biden fight against that? The question is, will the assassination attempt against Trump force the Democrats to line up behind Biden and stop all the internal doubts and angst or will it persuade them that the only way they can beat Trump now is to have a much younger candidate who can at least give Trump a run for his money? In reality, a change in candidate now, after the shooting, would be a waste of time. Better to stick with Biden and hope for the best that some of the shooting stardust falls away from Trump. But I'm afraid it won't. The shooting and that brilliant Associated Newspapers picture of him with his fist raised and the American flag above him will carry him all the way to the White House.

Donald Trump will now become president again

There is now a new defining image in the 2024 presidential election - a bloodied Donald Trump risng up with his fist pumped after the assassination attempt. The previous defining image of Trump, grim-looking, in the Manhattan courtoom at his trial on business fraud charges, will be cast to one side. Now it's Trump, the survivor, Trump the fighter, Trump, the man who will make the US even greater. Yes, the assasination attempt was shocking, not least the extraordinary fact that despite all the Secret Service and police and counter-attack combbat squads there to protect him at his rally, no one appears to have checked out the rooftop 200 yards away which provided the would-be assassin with a perfect vantage point for his Armelite sniper rifle. But Trump miraculously survived and by getting up and shouting "fight" to his adoring and shocked fans, before being swept away by his secret service detail, that image and cry will end all hope of Joe Bieden winning a second term in the White Office. The comparisons between the two men will now be even starker: the faltering, bumbling Biden, and the bold and bloodied Trump. It's a brutal fact but this sort of shocking incident will sweep Trump back into the Oval Office.

Viktor Orban is now Trump's right- hand man

Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban basically does he wants on the world stage, never mind that he has responsibilities as a leader in the European Union and in Nato. And now he is going around promising that his friend Donald Trump is going to solve the war in Ukraine when he becomes president which is a bit like kicking President Joe Biden in the nether regions. Such loyalty. Orban who struts the world stage like a buffalo in a Chinese tea shop. has been to see other friends, Vladimir Putin where they hugged, Xi Zinping (less amorous) and then on to Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort residence where I am sure a bear hug took place. Anyway out he came all suffused with Trumpery and pronouced to the world that Trump was the man to end the war in Ukraine, never mind that he actually might lose the election in November. I know it's getting less and less likely but even so. So Orban has been convinced by Trump that his secret plan - to give Russia all the territory it has seized and a promise that Ukraine will never join Nato (just guessing but it must be something lIke this) will bring the shooting and casualties to an abrupt halt. It doesn't seem as if President Zelensky will have a part to play in this giveaway victory for Putin. So, well done, Prime Minister Orban, you have just undermined Biden by assuming Trump will win in November, and carved out a future for Ukraine that it definitely does not want.

George Clooney should stick to Hollywood stuff

Look, I'm a great fan of George Clooney. He is a seriously cool guy and most of his films are brilliant. But why is it that in the United States when a Hollywood film star suggests the president should step down everyone goes oh my goodness, if George Clooney says Joe Biden should go into retirement then we should all listen. Praise the Lord for Hollywood. This is Cloonacy. Why would the whole of America and, by the way, all the serious papers, especially The New York Times, bow down to Clooney's advice and say Biden is finished. He must be because Clooney says so. It's madness. It would be like Michael Caine informing the world that in his view the prime minister of Great Britain should step down because he, Caine, is a film star and therefore has special knowledge and a special position in society. Sorry, it's ridiculous. Michael Caine would never do such a thing. So why does Clooney think he has the right to stir the pot against Biden and be listened to? Anyway, the fact is, the Clooney statement, in an article in The New York Times (of course) is big news and it might just tip the scales against poor old Joe. Donald Trump must be measuring the curtains in the White House already.

The eight Nato nations failing to make the spending grade

Much has been made of the fact that 23 out of the 31 member nations of Nato are now on line for spending the required two per cent of GDP on defence. This has been described as a wonderfully encouraging achievement at the Nato summit in Washington. But this two per cent obligation has been a fixture of Nato membership for so long it seems amazing that there are still eight countries who have failed, in some cases, quite miserably, to reach that target. Who are they: Croatia on 1.8 per cent, so getting there slowly, Portugal on 1.55 per cent, Italy on 1.49 per cent, Canada on 1.3 per cent, Belgium on 1.3 per cent, Luxembourg on 1.2 per cent, Slovenia on 1.29 per cent and Spain on 1.28 per cent. Apart from Creoatia they have a long way to go but are they planning to spend more over the next year or so? There seem to be no guarantees. Actually the Nato stipulation now is "at least two per cent". So they are a long way off. Good luck to them if Donald Trump becomes president. I see that Rishi Sunak's pledge to spend 2.5 per cent on defence has already been pushed to one side by the new prime minister, Keir Starmer. The Labour leader says he will only spend that much on defence when there's proper growth in the economy to allow for it, which, I guess, seems reasonable.

Nato unity is in disarray

Vladimir Putin must be chortling in his office in the Kremlin. Nato celebrating 75 years of unity at its summit in Washington tomorrow and yet everywhere he looks the alliance's togetherness is marked by dissension, concern for the future and downright disloyalty. Putin has just been having a nice little chat with Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, hosting him at the Kremlin, literally a couple of days before Orban is due in Washington to represent his country at the alliance's summit. What does he think he is playing at? Nobody is supposed to talk, let alone cosy up to, the Russian president because of his brutal war in Ukraine. It's hard enough having President Erdogan of Turkey at the summit because he doen't seem to know whether he wants to stick with his western pals or turn eastwards. He, too, has a relationship going with Putin and is buying Russian air defence systems. The war in Ukraine HAS unified Nato in its support for Kyiv but there are so many voices now within the alliance, not just Orban's, urging ways to end the war which will inevitably mean Putin holding onto parts of Ukraine his troops have seized. But the one thing Nato is very good at his celebrating anniversaries and no doubt the communique that will be drafted will be full of praise and admiration for a defensive alliance which has helped to prevent war in Europe for three-quarters of a century. It's no mean feat.

Biden's big test at the Nato summit in Washington

President Joe Biden will have to demonstrate next week that he still has what it takes to be the leader of the western world whem Nato leaders meet in Washington to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the alliance. Of course it's not just a jolly, it's a proper summit when Ukraine will have top billing. But every leader of Nato, including the new British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, will be coming to Washington with one thought in mind and one only. Is Biden going to have a good summit or a disastrous summit? If he walks hesistantly into the conference hall, shakes hands and calls leaders by their wrong names, or falls over, or gives an address in a quiet, croaky voice, every single person in the room is going to be worried sick that the man who represents and leads all of them can still do the job. They don't want Donald Trump back but they do want a president who looks and sounds healthy and confident and on the ball. No doubt most of the alliance leaders will gather round and give their support, slap his back (not too hard, please) and wish him well in the election. But all of them will be worried. So instead of a celebration of 75 years since the founding Washington Treaty was signed to form the western alliance, there will be trepidation and anxiety.

Ukraine military is struggling and still short of ammo

The voice of pleading from Volodymir Zelensky has been a constant mantra for the West ever since Russia invaded in February 2022. He has always wanted more ammunition and weapons to fight back the Russian troops. Today, 29 months since the invasion, this is still the cry. It is extraordinary that after so long when there should be a well-oiled arms flow heading for Kyiv it mever seems to keep pace with what is happening on the battlefield. Zelensky is now saying the Russian troops are succeeding in pushing back Ukrainian units because they have a shortage of ammunition. The process of delivering arms is too slow, he says. Admittedly, there was the fatal gap in deliveries when the US Congress halted supplies. But that was some time ago and the deliveries should now be back to normal. So why the delays, if Zelesnky is right? Russia benefited hugely by the impasse in Congress and it seems Putin is still able to exploit the ammunition gaps by urging his troops to gon on the offensive. Someone in the Pentagon has to get the arms flow moving at an accelerated pace or else Ukraine will remain on the backfoot and there will never be a moment when they can persuade Moscow to go for a peace settlement that would be acceptable to Kyiv. Ukraine, not Russia, needs to make advances on the battlefield.

The fall of Liz Truss

Not that long ago Liz Truss was the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Before that she was foreign secretary. Now she has no political status whatsoever. What an incredible fall from grace. Last night she was ousted as MP in one of the safest Conservative constituencies in the country and has to start looking for a job. They say politics is cruel and one is always at the mercy of the electorate which, of course, is what democracy is all about. But from the highest political post in the land to ...nothing. That's a helluva drop in favour. In her 49 days as prime minister she was her own worst enemy, trying to do too much in too short time a timeframe to boost the country's economy. Her maths was all over the place and she didn't consult anyone, she ignored the markets and the Bank of England and just went ahead with cutting taxes everywhere, like a mad professor in a science laboratory. And the markets and the economy and Britain's credit rating in the world went steeply downwards in a flash. So after 49 days she was gone. Now she is no longer an MP and, I guess, we will never see her back again. What will she do next, what can she do next?

How is a new British prime minister going to deal with Trump?

It's election day in the United Kingdom and the polls say the Conservatives are going to be heavily defeated after 14 years in office which means the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer who has very little hutzpah will be the next prime minister. If Donald Trump wins in November, how on earth is Prime Minister Starmer going to cope with the MAGA Man? Only Boris Johnson out of all the leaders Britain has had in the last few years, looked comfortable in Trump's presence, and Boris is gone. Starmer and Trump will be like the new boy meeting an overbearing headmaster. Starmer has never given the impression in all his time as leader of the Labour party that he is bursting with confidence and visionary ideas, so if he has Trump in the White House across the Atlantic, I can't imagine the so-called special relationship will survive, at least not politically. The intelligence services on either side of the Atlantic will carry on as normal. But Trump and Starmer are never going to be easy bedfellows. With any luck, all the furore over Joe Biden will die down and the 81-year-old president will win another four years. Starmer and Biden would have a much better chance of forming a decent relationship. I bet Starmer is holding his breath.

Biden vows to fight to the end

The Democratic establishment is coming out in force to try and persuade poor Joe Biden to step down and make way for someone younger. The New York Times is leading the field. Other papers are joining the NYT. I can't imagine what it's like in the White House right now. There must be an air of desperation. But Biden is having none of it. He has vowed to stay to the bitter end and fight all the way. No one is going to push him out. You have to admire him. He knows he has the backing of his wife, Jill, and I guess that's why he has decided to put a bold face on and confront all the siren voices. What he needs to do more than anything is make lots of public speeches and raise his voice so that everyone can hear what he is saying. No more mumbling. Shout from the rooftops if necessary. And, above all, the next television debate with Donald Trump must be so different everyone watching will wonder what all the fuss was about. Can he do that? Will he do that? Sensible people in the White House, such as John Kirby, his strategic communications adviser and a good guy, will I am sure be impressing on the president the need to go forward boldly and, preferably, ignore The New York Times editorial.

Immunity from prosecution might not help Trump become president

All the focus since the US Supreme Court ruled Donald Trump should enjoy immunity from prosecution for anything he did in his official capacity as president has been on the tremendous victory that has given him. He now won't face any of the outstanding trials till after the election and with the Supreme Court behind him, he has every chance of waltzing into the White House and becoming King of the universe, able to do what he wants. BUt there's an alternate argument I believe. With such potential powers in his hands, unlimited thanks to the new interpretation of the constitution by six of the nine judges on the Supreme Court, Trump could run amok, although I dismiss the ridiculous suggestion that he would be allowed to order the US Navy Seals to kill his political opponents. Nevertheless, the new powers might just frighten American citizens so much that they will no longer even consider voting for Trump. They will know in their hearts that that nice man Joe Biden wouldn't abuse his powers by exploiting the new Supreme Court interpretation. So, old he may be, but they might think it would be safer to keep him in the White House and prevent Trump from getting his hands on the reigns of power. So the Supreme Court might just have ruined Trump's chances of winning the election. What an extraordinary twist that would be, and definitely not what the six judges intended when they came to their outrageously wrong conclusion.

The US Supreme Court has fudged it. Surprise surprise!

The warning signs have been around for weeks. Instead of coming up with a precise, absolutely clear, historically sensible ruling that, like all fellow citizens, the president of the United States should never be above the law, six of the nine judges on the US Supreme Court have decided that immunity from prosecution can be justified where a president has been performing his official duties. As one dissenting judge put it, the president can now be "a king above the law". It's staggering but not surprising. The three dissenting judges said it was a bad day for democracy. Or to put it another way, it's a great day for Trump. Now the trials in which he is accused of interfering in the results of the 2020 election will nbe delayed while lower courts try to come to terms with the gobbledegook ruling and attempt to work out how it affects the crimes with which Trump has been charged. This can only happen in the US of A. I cannot for one moment imagine the judges on the UK Supreme Court ever saying that political leaders should enjoy immunity from prosecution if they try to interfere with a democratic process. Trump will see the ruling as a boost to his election prospects. Whatever happens next the ruling will mean there is only the tiniest chance the key trials will be held before the November election. So if he wins he will have all the leeyway he needs to postpone the trials for ever, or at least while he is in office. America's democracy has just been tarnished.