Putin can't afford a long war in Ukraine

After 64 days of war in Ukraine, there is no sign that President Putin is prepared to concede the losses his Russian forces have suffered nor is there any evidence that he is faltering in his determination to achieve the objectives he set his military chiefs. However, the warning by Liz Truss, foreign secretary, this week that the war in Ukraine could last for at least five years or more appears questionable. What is the intelligence analysis behind this statement? And is the West prepared and sufficiently united to back Ukraine with military and economic aid for this length of time? Putin will be pondering the same questions. Looking at the war from the Kremlin point of view, there are good reasons to conclude that it’s in the interests of both Putin’s leadership survival and the future of Russia’s economy to grab a “victory” as quickly as possible and make the best of what has been a botched and incompetently-run invasion. A five-year campaign of attritional warfare in a part of Ukraine which has already suffered war since 2014 without a victory for Moscow makes little sense. The Russian armed forces are already running out of precision missiles, (each Kalibr cruise missile costs about $1.5 million), tank spares are low because of the western ban on the export to Russia of high-technology components and, most importantly, so many of the supposedly elite battalion tactical groups have been crippled by high casualty rates that Putin will be hard-pressed to fill the gaps with adequately- trained conscripts. General Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander Europe (Saceur), told The Times this week that he couldn’t see how Putin could contemplate a long war in Ukraine if only because of the manpower shortages. Leading US defence analyst and former senior Pentagon official Andrew Krepinivech agrees. “The betting is that Breedlove is right. If the war drags on Putin faces the risk of the Russian economy requiring years to recover, the military balance relative to Nato continuing to worsen, and growing internal discontent,” he said. “Putin has strong incentives to declare victory and end the war,” he said. “However, absent a ‘Munich sell-out’ by the West, the Ukrainians would almost certainly fight on. If so, a lot would depend on how much support Nato provides. If the alliance prioritises on not provoking Putin, the conflict could devolve into a low-level extended war,” he said. The Pentagon is also cautious about predicting a five-year war, even though the huge $33 billion military and economic package announced by President Biden this week would appear to indicate a pledge for the long haul. “We believe the war could be prolonged now that the focus has shifted to the east and south in terrain that both sides know well and in which the Russians can concentrate their forces,” John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, told The Times. “But we wouldn’t be able to speculate as to how long exactly it may go. Our security assistance is designed primarily to help them in today’s fight. It would be wrong to conclude that the assistance in recent days or that to come reflect a certitude about the length of the war,” he said. “The truth is it can and should end today should Mr Putin choose to do the right thing and remove his forces,” Kirby said.

Man-portable air-defence missiles the key to scaring the Russian fighter pilots

Russian fighter aircraft and attack helicopter pilots are daily launching strike missions in eastern Ukraine in a manner that shows they are desperate to avoid western-supplied anti-air missiles. New video footage of Russia’s Ka-52 gunships and low-flying Su-25 fighter jets underline the impact US anti-air Stinger, UK Starstreak and home-grown Ukrainian missile systems have had on the battlefield. A Kamov-52 Alligator helicopter seen flying over Pervomaisk in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine is supposed to be one of the Russian air force’s most deadly gunships, similar in capability to the American Apache. However the video shows the gunship firing its payload of rockets into the air without any obvious target selected. Although using a spray of rockets like artillery fire is not uncommon, the pilot of the Ka-52 has clearly launched his weapons in an indiscriminate fashion. Unlike the Apache’s precision-guided Hellfire missiles which can be fired with accuracy at a moving vehicle, the Ka-52’s rockets fired in the video were unguided. Past videos have also shown the Ka-52 being used as a form of airborne multiple-launch rocket platform. By firing the rockets upwards the Russian pilots are seeking to extend their range but without any degree of accuracy. Fired over a city the rockets would land over a wide area without any specific target in mind, thus increasing the chances of civilian casualties. Launching rockets in this unconventional way also indicates that the Ka-52 pilot may have wanted to empty his payload of weapons in one go and then fly off to avoid being hit by man-portable Stingers or other missile systems. The Ukrainian military claim to have shot down or captured at least ten of the two-seater Ka-52 helicopters. Dozens of other Russian helicopters have been shot down. The latest video of an Su-25 fighter aircraft launching an attack in the same Luhansk region shows the jet flying at roof-top level launching multiple flares to try and evade Ukrainian anti-air defences. Stinger missiles have an infrared seeker that locks onto the aircraft’s heat source in the engine’s exhaust and can hit anything flying below 11,000ft. Decoy flares are used to counter or confuse heat-seeking missiles.

Russian dolphins used in Sevastopol to guard against Ukrainian sabotage missions

The Russian navy has placed trained bottlenose dolphins in the port of Sevastopol in Crimea to help protect Black Sea fleet warships from underwater sabotage, new satellite images have disclosed. Two pens with the dolphins have been spotted in the naval base. Dolphins have been trained by the Russians for decades to detect mines and give warning of hostile frogmen. The US has a similar capability. Sevastopol is the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the annexed Crimea and was the home base for the guided-missile cruiser, Moskva, which was sunk by Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles on April 14. According to the satellite images analysed by the US Naval Institute, the dolphin pens were placed in the Sevastopol port in February when Russia invaded Ukraine. Dolphins have hyper-sensitive hearing far in excess of humans and have been trained to give warning of potentially hostile objects or frogmen. This capability is known as biosonar. Particularly after the sinking of the Black Sea flagship cruiser, the Russian navy will be on alert for any sign of underwater sabotage operations. The Black Sea Fleet includes three Admiral Grigorovich-class guided-missile frigates which are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles. The Kalibre missile with a maximum range of 1,550 miles has been fired on numerous occasions against targets in Ukraine since the invasion began on February 24. The Sevastopol base also accommodates corvettes which can fire the Kalibr missile, diesel attack submarines, patrol ships and landing vessels. The use of dolphins began in 1965 when the Soviet navy opened a research facility at Kazachya Bukhta near Sevastopol. The mammal training programme was passed to the Ukrainian navy after the Cold War ended. But it was largely neglected until it was revived in 2012. In March 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea the facility once again came under Russian control. In 2016 it was reported that Russia had bought five bottlenose dolphins for 18,000 pounds. The US trains dolphins and sea lions at the naval base in San Diego, California. Russia is also believed to train Beluga whales to carry out underwater missions. In 2019 the Norwegian directorate of fisheries revealed that a Beluga whale had been found wearing a harness with the words "equipment St Petersburg" written on the strap. The Arctic-based whale could have come from the Russian navy's base at Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula.

Nothing it seems is stopping Putin from carrying on with his war

The supply by Nato countries of heavy weapons to Ukraine is unprecedented. The scale of the sanctions imposed on Moscow is unprecedented. Yet Vladimir Putin is just carrying on with his war plan as if nothing is happening. What more can the West do to prevent this man from seizing eastern Ukraine and then piling on to grab Moldova? Some Pentagon officials believe that it is possible Ukraine could defeat Russia. But I don't seee Putin ever giving up until he has acheived his goals - whatever they might be. He talks blithely about how all planning decisions have already been made and that probably includes what action he will take if he feels Nato has gone too far in arming Ukraine or if he suspects the counter-attacks across the Ukraine border into Russia are being inspired by the West. He mentions nuclear weapons like they are just some additional systems that he could turn to if necessary. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said at a big allied conference in Germany yesterday that he was prepared to move heaven and earth to get Ukraine what they needed. But in the meantime the Russian forces under their new leader, the monster general formerly in charge of Russian brutalities in Syria, are finally adopting sound military tactics to make slow but steady progress in the Donbas region. For example instead of forming a long 40-mile convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles and going down one route through northern Ukraine, like they did initially when the invasion began, they have been ordered to spread out in eastern Ukraine and to advance along an extended front. It's simple warfare tactics but until this general arrived, none of the previous commanders seemed to have a clue about what to do. This is ominous for the Ukrainian defenders, and despite all the firepower and effort the US and others have contributed to their cause, it appears to be not enough. And now Putin is turning to other ways of getting back at western sanctions, turning off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. He has a lot of cards up his sleeves. How can he be stopped? The US 82nd Airborne Division in Poland must be itching to take him on. But Biden and Nato are fearful of World War Three and nuclear exchanges. Because of this, nothing is going to stop Putin, however long it takes.

Arms to Ukraine, it's all boiling up

The US is continuing to provide “massive” support for Ukraine and “massive pressure against Russia”, top American officials have said while detailing the latest financial package for Kyiv to purchase more weapons to fight the Russian invading forces. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Lloyd Austin, US defence secretary, said after their visit to Kyiv that new funding of $713 million would be split between Ukraine and 15 alliance nations in central and eastern Europe and the Baltics to help them replace weapons from their stockpiles which had been donated to the Ukrainian military. The new arms funding brought the total value of America’s military aid to Ukraine to $3.7 billion since the invasion was launched on February 24. The focus of the western arms-supply operation is now changing. Kyiv is seeking more advanced western weapons to counter Russia’s firepower superiority, including air defence systems, to combat the Russians as they focus on the Donbas region in the eastern Ukraine. However, the US is also mindful that the Ukrainian armed forces need a constant flow of non-Nato-standard ammunition for its Soviet-made tanks and artillery. The latest arms package announced by Blinken and Austin includes $165 million for Soviet munitions from former Warsaw Pact countries which joined Nato after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite a second warning to Nato from Russia to stop arms supplies to Ukraine, Austin said in Kyiv that the US wanted to weaken Russia’s military to hamper Moscow from launching further offensives. “The US would like to ensure that Russia which has lost military capacity and troops does not have the ability to very quickly reproduce that capability”, he said. His remark indicated that the Biden administration has no intention of stopping the arms-supply convoys into Ukraine, ignoring the demand made yesterday (Mon) by Anatoly Antonov, the Russian ambassador to Washington. The ambassador said a diplomatic note had been sent to Washington, denouncing the arms supplies as “unacceptable”. Blinken said the US had put in place a strategy of “massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia” across Nato. He said it was having real results, with Russia failing in its war aims. The US has now shipped, or is in the process of shipping, 90 155mm M777 howitzers to Ukraine, via Poland, along with a total of 184,000 artillery shells. In addition the US has sent 90 tactical vehicles which are needed to tow the howitzers. The howitzers which can fire shells with a maximum range of more than 20 miles are playing a crucial role in targeting Russian attacking positions in the Donbas region. The arms supplies are being coordinated by the US European Command control centre-Ukraine, based in Stuttgart in Germany. Austin will be in southern Germany tomorrow (TUES) to meet with his counterparts from other alliance nations to discuss Ukraine’s current and future defence needs. They will meet at the huge Ramstein air base, headquarters of the US Air Force in Europe. They are likely to focus on the need to continue providing both Soviet-designed weapons and ammunition as well as advanced western systems to Ukraine. The Czech Republic has already sent dozens of T-72 tanks and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. Poland is expected to follow suit as it has stockpiles of several hundred T-72s. Slovakia has provided Soviet S-300 air defence systems. The Nato countries in eastern Europe are still well stocked with Soviet munitions and tanks and they will be expected to raid their stockpiles to help the Ukrainian military continue to operate their Soviet-made 152mm artillery pieces. Since the invasion, the US has coordinated and delivered more than 50 million rounds of small arms ammunition to Ukraine, much of it Soviet-designed. There has been no move so far by the US to supply Patriot anti-air and anti-missile systems, nor the advanced Reaper armed surveillance drone. Both systems would make a significant difference in denying Russia air superiority but the Ukrainian military would require intensive training before they could be fielded. President Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, has been urging the US to send heavy artillery. The US has M109 155mm self-propelled artillery which would meet Zelensky’s request. There are other options including the M142 multiple-launch rocket system which can fire tactical ballistic missiles. The Pentagon has not indicated any plan yet to send such weapons.

US ignores Moscow's warning about arms supplies to Ukraine

Sitting in his favourite chair -if he has one - in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin must look at the US State Department's running list of latest weaponry provided to Ukraine with disbelief, anger and vengeful thoughts in hs mind. Moscow has sent two warnings to the US, the second one today delivered by the Russian ambassador to Washington, describing the arms suplies as unacceptable and adding oil to the fire. Well, it's true the big guns now being sent to Ukraine will certainly add to the fire but it will all be aimed at Russian troops and armour. They are the illegal occupiers and I guess deserve everything they get launched at them, although I have to say I do feel sorry for the teenage conscripts who don't seem to know what they're doing or where they are. Washington is just ignoring the Moscow warnings and is carrying on emptying its stockpiles of weapons from warehouses in the US and Europe to give the Ukrainians a fighting chance of defeating the Russians and driving them back to where they belong. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, even suggested the US plan was to make sure the Russian military was so weakened they wouldn't be able to mount big offensives ever again. You see, Putin will be saying to his inner-circle KGB chums, I told you Nato wants to destroy Russia. The point is, though, what is Putin going to do about it? He looks so ill that he may be passed making sensible, rational decisions. If, as many people believe, including in military circles, that he is genuinely sick, either with cancer or Parkinson's, Putin might go for broke and do something seriously dangerous. Churchill said something along the lines, with Hitler in mind, that you should never underestimate the madness of a dictator. The West must never underestimate Putin's capacity for revenge. It may not come tomorrow but it may be not that far away.

It's time for boots on the ground but ony in western Ukraine

Nato must not be scared of Vladmir Putin over his threat to use nuclear weapons and should now send troops into western Ukraine to mount humanitarian assistance operations and establish a forward supply base, a former top US commander in Europe has said. As more heavy weapons are sent to the region to help Ukraine confront the Russian troops, General Philip Breedlove, supreme allied commander Europe from 2013 to 2016, told The Times in an interview that it was time to stand up to Putin “We must respect the fact that Putin might use nukes but we shouldn’t be paralysed by it,” he said. “Would his use of tactical nukes in Ukraine be a tipping point for Nato and the EU and the world? We have nukes and I’m not being flippant. We have to take action to deter him. Otherwise Putin’s deterrence is working extremely well for him. Multiple world leaders have said we’re not going to fight the Russians in Ukraine,” the general said. “So they have all been deterred by Putin. But if we reward him (by doing nothing) then that will lead to more bad behaviour. It will take a policy decision to say: enough is enough,” he said. “But the West didn’t get to that point after Bucha (the town outside Kyiv where hundreds of civilians were reportedly slaughtered) and not after Mariupol,” he said. Breedlove, 66, one of several high-ranking retired commanders advising the Biden administration on Ukraine, asked:“So what could the West do? Well, right now there are no Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. So why don’t we put Nato troops into western Ukraine to carry out humanitarian missions and to set up a forward arms supply base? “The Ukrainians have been screaming for humanitarian assistance. Why don’t we go in and help? But most importantly, what is the one thing Putin wants? He wants a land bridge to Moldova, and for that he needs to take Odesa. We did nothing to stop the fall of Mariupol. What has the West done to make sure Odesa doesn’t fall? Again, nothing. “Odesa is vital for Ukraine and for its economy. If Odesa falls, Ukraine will become a land-locked country with no access to the Black Sea. The impact on Ukraine’s GDP would be huge. It would be ruinous for the economy. “The West is saying it is providing everything Ukraine needs to defend against the Russians. But the people of Mariupol had to fight without Stingers (anti-aircraft missiles]. That was a failure by the West.” “Now we need to make sure that the Ukrainians win the battle for Odesa. The arms sent didn’t get to Mariupol because the West was too slow and by the time they arrived, the Russians were already encircling Mariupol. “Odesa isn’t encircled. So we must make sure the arms get to Odesa such as coastal defence cruise missiles and the [Slovakia-supplied] S-300 air defence system. Also long-range artillery. And we need to make sure they have enough food stockpiled. Is the world prepared to defend Odesa and to prevent what happened to Mariupol?” What might provoke Putin into using tactical nuclear weapons? “I don’t think Putin will make the kind of decision to move to a new level because of the arms supplies the West is providing,” Breedlove said. “But I believe his threshold may be reached if one of two events happen: First, he has taken a sound whipping and he’s trying to hide that fact from his internal audience. Most of the Russian people don’t know about it. The intelligencia know what’s going on but Putin controls the information flow. “So what if he can no longer control the message in Russia? For example, the first batch of conscripts are due back next month but many of them will not be coming back. How is Putin going to deal with that? “Second, if he suffers another major defeat, this time in the east in the Donbas region, that could be another tipping point. I think the sinking of the Moskva [Russia’s flagship cruiser in the Black Sea] nearly got him to that point. I don’t think Putin’s threshold moment will be about the amount or type of arms the West supplies. It’s more about what the effects are on the battlefield.” “I don’t believe either side can win,” the general said. “The Ukrainians can whip them again but they can’t expel the Russians from Ukraine. Some people believe that the Russians have the stamina to go on for a long time but I disagree. The Russians have a lot more equipment to bring to the battlefield but they don’t have the soldiers to man them.” “I agree with the remarks made by the head of the CIA (William Burns) when he took seriously Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons,” Breedlove said. “But I disagree that we should be paralysed by that threat. “Look at history. Three American administrations had to face the Russians and stood up to them: Obama eliminated a battalion of troops from the [Russian mercenary] Wagner Group in Syria [the Battle of Khasham in eastern Syria in February, 2018], George W Bush flew supplies to Georgia [after Russian troops occupied two provinces in 2008] and Kennedy stood firm in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.” None of these incidents led to war with Russia.

How many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and injured?

With all the blunderings and failures by the Russian invading forces in Ukraine and the casualties they have suffered, very little has been revealed about Ukrainian soldiers killed and injured. The casualty toll must be huge. While it is good for morale for the Ukrainian government not to spell out the enormous sacrifices that must have been made, at some point in this war the fatality statistics will have to be disclosed if only to emphasise to the world what Ukraine has suffered at the hands of Russian troops. In the Donbas region it is now a war of attrition with long-range artillery being used by the Russians across a 300-mile-long front. The results will be devastating. Boris Johnson has said the war could continue until the end of next year. But by then the death and injury toll on both sides will be unimaginable. Can slaughter on this scale continue for another 18 to 20 months? It seems Vladimir Putin cares nothing for the calamity he has created and wants to push further, possibly into Moldova. But, like Ukraine, Moldova is not a member of Nato, so will the alliance stand by once again and watch as Putin tries to seize more territory for his grand plan of recreating the Soviet Empire? There is now only one solution left. Putin has to be stopped. He has to be defeated. But somehow he has to be defeated without bringing on a third world war. I just don't know if that's possible.

Putin, cold, crazy and losing

The fact that Vladimir Putin, an increasingly diminished-looking gangster president, summoned his defence minister Sergei Shoigu to congratulate him on winning a "victory" in Mariupol is the clearest sign yet that the Russian leader is both demented and fooling himself. There is no victory in Mariupol, unless the destruction of a once-esteemed city is viewed as a victory. Why summon Shoigu to sit opposite him for a "well-done-general" public PR event when both he and the unfortunate defence minister know full well that Russia is losing in Ukraine. Well, there is the answer. Putin did it BECAUSE he knows he is losing and needed to try and persuade the increasingly doubting Russian nation that his strategy is not just working but succeeding. When the TV cameras were switched off and the microphones put away in their boxes, did Putin turn to Shoigu out of earshot of any Kremlin flunkies and whisper in his ear: "What the .... is going on in Ukraine?" Putin must be getting madder and madder by the day. The few times he has appeared in public he looks bloated in the face, down in the mouth and spitting-angry. His comment about sealing off the iron and steel works in Mariupol where 2,000 Ukranian fighters are hold up was a clear sign of his growing frustration and alarming vengeful craziness. So far his focus on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine has elicited few territorial gains. Will he now order his troops to bomb Donbas to extinction so that not a fly or mosquito will survive? The man is dangerously demented. There will and never can be a peace deal with Vladimir Putin.

China, like North Korea, blasts off a new missile while the US is focused on Ukraine

China has launched a hypersonic anti-ship missile from a cruiser, adding to concerns in the US about Beijing’s rapid development of weapons that can hit targets at more than five times the speed of sound. Broadcasting its latest missile project, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) released video footage of the launch from a Type 055 Renhai-class cruiser. The new hypersonic missile, named by western analysts as the YJ-21, will be one of many weapons in the PLAN’s arsenal with the capability to target and destroy US Navy aircraft carriers. China has for years followed a policy aimed at denying access to western warships in the region as part of its overall strategy to dominate the Indo-Pacific. Already possessed of two “carrier-killer” ballistic missiles, the Dong-Feng 21D and DF-26, the new YJ-21 ship-launched hypersonic weapon will pose an even greater potential threat. Hypersonic missiles are more manoeuvrable in flight and, as a result, difficult to detect and track. The Type 055 cruiser is already a heavily-armed warship and plays a key part in escorting China’s aircraft carriers. If it is now to be armed with hypersonic missiles it will become one of the most potent warships in the world. There are eight of these cruisers. The US has yet to field a shipborne hypersonic missile although the US Navy and US Army are jointly developing a weapon called conventional (non-nuclear) prompt strike (CPS) which has been designed for launch from a warship and submarine, and from land. Currently the US Navy relies on the Tomahawk cruise missile which has a range of more than 1,000 miles but is subsonic (slower than the speed of sound), and therefore easier to detect although it can also manoeuvre in flight. The US Navy is planning first to arm the Zumwalt-class destroyer with hypersonic missiles but this is unlikely to happen until 2025. China and Russia appear to be ahead of the US in the hypersonic arms race. The new footage of the missile launch from the PLAN cruiser indicates that Beijing has further stretched the gap in capability between the US and China. Last August China took the world by surprise when it launched a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle off the back of a Long March rocket and then flew around the planet in low orbit undetected. China claimed it was a routine spacecraft test but US intelligence services confirmed the Chinese technology breakthrough. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, described the hypersonic experiment as America’s “Sputnik moment”, a reference to the Soviet Union’s groundbreaking launch of an orbiting satellite on October 4, 1957. Russia became the first country to fire a hypersonic missile in combat when it launched a Kinzhal (Dagger) system at an underground weapons depot in western Ukraine. The Kinzhal which was launched from the air, probably by a MiG-31, is claimed by Moscow to have a range of more than 1,200 miles. Russia also has a hypersonic cruise missile, the Zircon, with a claimed speed of up to Mach 9 which can be launched from a warship or submarine; and the nuclear-capable Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle which, like China’s test-firing in August last year, can be launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Putin launches an ICBM but tells Washington first.

It is extraordinary that in this crazy world where all the rules of international behaviour have been broken by Russia, well by Vladimir Putin I should say, Moscow still adhered to the traditional protocol by warning the US of an imminent test launch of its giant Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. It's kind of slightly reassuring even though the message from the Kremlin was so obvious it was like a slap in the face: We've got a bigger ICBM than you over there in DC and it works pretty damned well. OK, Putin, we get the message but who is kidding whom? Whatever happens in Ukraine there is no way, I repeat no way, this is all going to end up with a nuclear war and the obliteration of Planet Earth. So stop showing off with your nuke muscles, Putin. No one is impressed. I noticed the cool Pentagon press secretay John Kirby put it to one side very quickly, saying there was no threat posed to the US and got on with answering questions about Ukraine. The fact that Moscow told Washington about the ICBM test shows that someone in the Kremlin or ministry of defence still has respect for longstanding arrangements between the world's two nuclear superpowers. Long may that last for all our sakes.

Who will win the Battle of Donbas?

The Battle of Donbas will pose different tactical challenges for both the Russians and the Ukrainians. It’s tank warfare country, ideal for Russian armour manoeuvre but the Ukrainian defenders are well dug into fortified positions and have had eight years to prepare. Whether the battle proves decisive for Vladimir Putin’s war plans will depend on the Russian military’s ability to address the logistical and command and control failures of the last seven weeks and also whether they are sufficiently skilled and motivated to exploit the geographical advantages of the flat and open plains of eastern Ukraine. For the first time since the invasion began the Ukrainian military will be forced to confront tank and artillery warfare reminiscent of Soviet-German battles of the Second World War. It will never reach the scale of Operation Barbarossa in June 1941 when 19 German Panza divisions with 3,000 tanks and 7,000 artillery pieces invaded Russia across a 1,000-mile front. However, the Russian invasion force has amassed tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and helicopters along a front that runs from Kharkiv in the northeast down to Donetsk, the unofficial capital of the Donbas region, and further south, a distance of some300 miles. While heavily outnumbered the Ukrainian military have their best combat-proven units in eastern Ukraine and have spent eight years fighting the Russians and their proxy forces in Donbas. “The Russians are trying to set the conditions for more aggressive, more overt and larger ground manoeuvres in Donbas,” John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, said. “But this is an area of the country that has seen fighting over the last eight years. This is a terrain both sides understand and know. It’s not like the Ukrainians ever left Donbas and had only been racing to get there in the last few days,” he said. “The Donbas region has been a hot war for eight years and both sides have traded geography with some violence over that period. The Ukrainians do have a not insignificant force posture there and they are fighting,” a senior Pentagon official said. The main challenge for the Ukrainians is that in the large mainly unforested open spaces in the east, their ability to launch guerilla-style anti-tank strikes from concealed positions as the tanks approach will be limited. When the Russians initially sent convoys of tanks across the border into Ukraine they were forced to use roads because of the muddy and tree-covered terrain, ideal, as it proved, for anti-tank ambushes. In preparation for a massed tank assault, the Russians have already begun to fire a barrage of long-range artillery and multiple-launch rocket strikes on the Ukrainian defensive positions in an attempt to destroy key military locations, initially focusing on the cities of Rubizhne, Popasna and Marinka, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. The Russian troops, now under the new supreme commander General Alexander Dvornikov appointed by Putin and reinforced by another 11 1,000-manned battalion tactical groups (bringing the total number of such groups to 76 in the Donbas region and the southeast) have the chance and the terrain to carry out full-scale mechanised manoeuvre operations. The Ukrainians have their proven American Javelin and British-supplied NLAW anti-tank weapons and Turkish armed drones which have successfully contributed to the destruction of nearly 700 tanks, according to Ukrainian claims. However, to face the new concentrated Russian offensive in the east, they need tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles. As well as their own armour, they now have Czech-delivered T-72 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles; American 155mm towed howitzers have started to arrive in Poland for a quick turn-around for the Donbas battlefield and British armoured personnel carriers are also on the way. Despite the Russian military’s superior firepower – their artillery ranges, for example, are longer than Ukraine’s - the Institute for the Study of War believes the new offensive is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous operations in Ukraine. Some of the Russian battalion tactical groups are still undermanned and damaged from seven weeks of fighting, appear to be “patched up”, and are yet to show any sign they have learned the lessons from earlier confrontations with the "more imaginative" Ukrainians. For example, Ukrainian forces counter-attacked southeast of Kharkiv and have taken control of several small towns, cutting off one of the main routes Russian troops are using to reinforce Donbas. Much will depend on whether the Russians have the stomach to engage in close-quarter combat. So far there has been scant evidence of Russian willingness to deploy covering infantry support to back up tank assaults in the earlier phases of the war. This will make it easier for the Ukrainians to pick off Russian tanks without having to face an infantry assault at the same time. But the Russian commander, Dvornikov, is likely to order a more comprehensive combined-arms offensive, and logistical supplies will be less challenging because Donbas borders Russia to the east.

Don't forget Kim Jong-un and his nukes!

The 13th missile test carried out by North Korea so far this year demonstrates, if nothing else, that President Biden’s attempts to prioritise a diplomatic approach towards Pyongyang have yet to achieve any results. Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has pursued an aggressive missile-testing programme, claiming to have launched new systems posing a direct threat both to the region and to the United States itself. The latest test-firing of what appears to be a nuclear-capable tactical ballistic missile would add an extra capability to the multiple artillery systems that line the border with South Korea and threaten Seoul. Washington has condemned all previous missile tests and sanctions have been tightened both in response to the launches and for North Korea’s human rights violations. However, they seem to have had little effect on Kim Jong-un’s determination to show Washington that despite facing dire economic challenges, he is still able to finance a comprehensive missile programme. No US administrations have managed to find the right formula to pressurise the North Korean regime into adopting a more conciliatory policy towards the West, let alone agree to denuclearise. President Obama tried what was called strategic patience, a relatively low key approach to try and soothe Pyongyang to think positively about ending its nuclear programme. President Trump took a much more dramatic line, warning North Korea of annihilation if it dared to threaten the US, and then launching a charm offensive with Kim, leading to two face-to-face but ultimately doomed summit meetings. Under Biden’s administration so far there have been public and private diplomatic approaches but without there being any hint of a breakthrough. The successive missile tests in less than four months and the fear in Washington that North Korea might carry out another nuclear test, the first since September 3, 2017, may well force Biden to consider a tougher sanctions policy or even a more dramatic attempt, Trump-style, to encourage Kim towards a less hostile stance. A meeting between Biden and Kim, however, would seem unlikely. In the meantime, US intelligence agencies have to assess the satellite images of the latest missile test to see what, if any, new threat it might bring to the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang has previously claimed successful tests of other new missile systems which US agencies have subsequently downplayed. However, any battlefield weapon that is nuclear-capable will be seen as a dangerous component of an already huge armoury of weapons facing South Korea.

US now training Ukrainians on artillery. It's a big deal.

At a base in Poland about 100 miles from the Ukraine border American troops are preparing to launch a crash training programme for small units of Ukrainian military to help them operate the next delivery of battlefield weapons from the US and from pre-positioned stocks in Germany. In a matter of days a massive shipment of arms is due to arrive at the unidentified base, including 18 155mm towed howitzers with 40,000 artillery rounds, 14 counter-artillery radars, two Sentinel air defence radars, 200 armoured personnel carriers and 11 Russian-made Mi-17 Hip helicopters. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the Pentagon has supplied thousands of tons of arms but has carefully avoided referring to any clandestine training programme for the Ukrainian army. When President Biden visited Poland last month he mentioned that US troops were involved in training. The Pentagon quickly clarified his comment, denying there was any such programme but acknowledged there was a “liaison” arrangement with the Ukrainians, effectively guiding them through the operating manual for Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft systems. However, with the imminent arrival of artillery and counter-battery radars, Pentagon officials have revealed for the first time that training will be necessary on these weapon systems. It’s a significant development in the American and Nato military support programme for Ukraine. “We do not believe that it’s going to take long for the little bit of training that’s going to be required on the howitzers, on the counter-artillery radar and the Sentinel air defence radar,” a senior US defence official said. “Those are three ones that are probably going to need some hands-on training,” the official said. The training programme in Poland, masterminded by General Tod Wolters, head of US European Command, is expected to take several days and will involve selected senior Ukrainian non-commissioned officers coming over the border for instruction. “General Wolters is very aggressively working out how we would provide a sort of ‘train the trainers’ approach to this so that we’re not pulling out of Ukraine an exorbitant number of fighters,” the official said. Those chosen for the training will already know how to operate radars and artillery but will need specific instruction on how to use the American systems. The Pentagon is keeping secret details of the howitzer being shipped to Poland, other than it firing a 155mm shell. However, it’s likely to be the M777 light artillery piece originally designed by the British company, BAe. It is manned by eight gunners and can fire a shell up to a range of 24 miles. About 5,000 American troops, mainly from 82nd Airborne Division and 18th Airborne Corps, are now based in Poland at Mielec, Nowa Deba and Rzeszow.

Would Biden dare to go to Kyiv?

After Boris Johnson's bold trip to Kyiv and his walkabout around the city, there are all kinds of reports whistling around Washington about the need for a high-up American official to do likewise to demonstrate solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, the embattled but gloriously pugnacious Ukrainian president. Could it be Joe Biden himself or would that be a step miles too far for his Secret Service team? If he did go I can't see him walking around the streets of Kyiv as casually as Boris did. He only seemed to be accompanied by a handful of armed Ukrainian special forces bodyguards, whereas Biden would need the full security gamut. It would involve hundreds of troops. Too much risk? The alternative options are for either Antony Blinken, the cool secretary of state, or Lloyd Austin, defence secretary, to make the trip to Kyiv. But would Zelensky feel rebuffed if Biden doesn't make it to his capital city? I suspect the Ukrainian leader will be happy with whoever Washington sends because it will be a huge boost to his leadership status. But there is no question that the arrival in Kyiv of the president of the United States would be an absolutely massive PR moment. Putin would be furious which would be good. In 2008 Nicholas Sarkozy, then the French president, made a dramatic and obviously previously unannounced visit to Kabul to meet the Afghan leader and talk to French troops. It was quite a coup for him and typical of the man. Will Biden dare to follow suit with a wizzbang visit to Kyiv?

How far away are we from the first Russia-Nato clash?

If this war in Ukraine continues for months, if not years, there will be a moment when Russia and Nato clash. It is inevitable unless both sides, by which I mean Russia and the alliance, deliberately ignore what each are doing for the sake of avoiding the third world war. This is what is going on at the moment. Vladimir Putin knows, because it's all being done overtly, that the US and the rest of Nato are supplying a fantastic amount of weapons to the Ukrainians. Nato has totally given up all that early caution about what weapons they supply to Ukraine. Now the full gamut of weapons are being considered or are already in the pipeline, including MiG-29 fighter aircraft, T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, Mi-17 helicopters, S-300 air defence missiles and howitzers. It's a staggering list. And so many thousands of portable Stinger anti-aircraft missile launchers have been supplied by the US that the production line can't cope with demand. Putin watches all this stuff arriving and so far has done nothing about it. It is extraordinary and bizarre. Russia has satellites keeping an eye on everything, so Putin must have a pretty good idea by now the routes taken by all the arms convoys. When is he going to authorise a bombing raid to take out the convoys? There are two reasons why he has not yet done so. First, if he sends ground-attack aircraft to do the bombing, the chances are they will be shot down. The convoys are being masterminded by US European Command and they must have seriously effective protective measures in place to defend them from attack. The second reason is that Putin has to be worried about the frightening escalation that would erupt if he bombed or tried to bomb the convoys BEFORE they reached the Ukrainian border. That would lead to instant retaliation by Nato. So, as a result, the convoys continue to pour into Ukraine without any meaningful attempt to disrupt them and, for the moment, Putin has not declared that the convoys are an act of war. The reality is that the Nato arms supplies have moved from defensive weapons to outright offensive systems. It's a Nato war by another name. I fear Putin will not put up with it for much longer.

Putin broke the law. Now so too has Boris Johnson. But come on!

So Boris Johnson and Rishy Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, are fined by the Metropolitan Police for breaching the Covid rules when they attended, albeit briefly, a Downing Sreet "birthday party" during lockdown. There are many voices demanding they both resign. I can understand those who feel this way, especially everyone in the country who abided by the rules, never saw anyone outside their household for more than a year and lost close family members or friends. Of course, of course, of course. But the world is in a dangerous place right now, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a monstrous catastrophe, economies are being hit, and there is a danger the war in Ukraine could expand to other parts of the region, even lead to a full-scale Europe war. For heaven's sake let's focus on the planet's biggest criminal, Vladimir Putin, and that means keeping in play all the leaders who are trying to protect Ukraine, Boris being one of them. The Met Police were doing their job, so it's not their fault, but all the MPs who are now screaming for his resignation because he is the first British prime minister to have been fined for breaking the law should get a life. Let's put things in perspective.

Putin took six weeks to learn how to fight a war

We're nearly seven weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and only now has Vladimir Putin, commander-in-chief of what was thought to be a premier class army, learned some of the basic facts about waging a war which, to Nato, is second nature. He has at last appointed a supreme commander to run what he calls a special operation, and has reduced his objectives to dividing Ukraine in half. His troops have totally destroyed Mariupol and if they manage, under the new commander, to seize control of the Donbas region in the east, Putin will have a territorial corridor all the way to annexed Crimea. If he succeeds, then he probably won't even bother to rebuild Mariupol but will just demolish what is still standing and build a road through the remains of what used to be a fine city. Having learned lessons the hard way - losing thousands of troops and a mass of armour - everything will now be concentrated on seizing Donbas. This time it's going to be far more difficult for the courageous Ukrainian forces to resist the Russians because it's all open ground, making it easier to manouevre rapidly, and the Ukrainians with their anti-tank weapons won't have so many places to hide. I fear it is going to be a bloody confrontation with a military commander in charge who already has a reputation for brutality. The big question now is: will Nato take a much more interventionist role? Not so interventionist to risk a third world war but considerably bolder and more courageous in backing President Zelensky to try and defeat Putin. After Boris Johnson's visit to Kyiv, I suspect he will be on the phone to Joe Biden to push for a more aggressive stance by the alliance.

Land mines playing a crucial role for Ukraine

Ukraine’s use of land mines has been critical in the successful destruction of hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers, America’s top military chief has disclosed. “Land mines are being effectively used by the Ukrainian forces to shape the avenues of approach by Russian armoured forces,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the joints chiefs of staff, told Congress. Strategically placed mines outside Kyiv and elsewhere had forced the Russians to deploy their tanks through narrow routes, providing easy pickings for the Ukrainian military. The strategy had put the Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles into specific “engagement areas”, making them “vulnerable to the 60,000 anti-tank weapons systems that we’re providing to the Ukrainians,” Milley told the Senate armed services committee. “That’s one of the reasons why you see column after column of Russian vehicles that are destroyed,” he said. Ukraine’s armed forces have claimed that nearly 700 Russian tanks have been destroyed since the invasion began on February 24, as well as more than 1,860 armoured personnel carriers, 1,320 other vehicles, 330 artillery systems and 107 multiple launch rocket systems. The horrific scenes that emerged from Bucha, the town outside Kyiv, following the withdrawal of Russian troops, led to a worldwide outcry over the killings of so many civilians. But the images also showed a long line of burnt-out tanks and armoured vehicles, destroyed by a combination of land mines and anti-tank weapons. The use of land mines in war has become increasingly controversial because of the threat posed to civilians by unexploded devices that remain buried for years. However, the focus of global attempts to ban such systems has been on anti-personnel mines and cluster bombs that can litter the battlefield for years. Anti-land mine campaigners have claimed that more than 7,000 people were killed or injured by land mines of all types in 2020. More than 160 countries have signed a 1997 treaty prohibiting the use, production and transfer of anti-personnel mines. Neither the US nor Russia are signatories. Ukraine signed the treaty in 1999. Anti-tank mines are not covered by the treaty. Human Rights Watch reported last month that Russian troops had used anti-personnel mines around Kharkiv. The mines discovered y Ukrainian explosive ordnance disposal experts were named as POM-3 systems, launched by rocket and fitted with a seismic sensor to detect anyone approaching. The POM-3 has an explosive charge capable of killing or maiming anyone within a range of about 50ft. The US has been reluctant to sign the land-mine treaty because of the widespread use of such systems along the South Korea border to deter an invasion from North Korea. President Biden’s administration is currently reviewing the US land-mine policy.

At what point does Putin decide enough is enough?

If you believe everything the Ukrainian government says, the Russians have lost so many thousands of troops, so many hundreds of tanks and armoured personnel carriers, and also fighter aircraft and helicopters, you wonder how Russia can go on fighting in Ukraine. But Putin's pain threshold seems to be so high that I can almost imagine him saying to his army chief of staff, "don't bore me with statistics, just get the job done". But he knows how badly things are going because he has authorised the recruitment of Madmax Syrian mercenaries to be paid large sums to come and fight in Ukraine. So much for the great Russian army. Let us hope that these Syrian baddies, along with the hideous Wagner Group of private killers also hired by the Kremlin's military chiefs to help out in Ukraine, meet the same fate as their Russian counterparts. By the time they have finished sorting out the Russians, Syrians and Wagner militia, the Ukrainian armed forces will be looking more and more like a Nato army. Trained and equipped by the western alliance, the Ukrainians are showing Putin every day that if he ever were to consider taking on Nato, he would without question face a humiliating defeat. It's for this reason that I am hopeful that Putin might just say to himself enough is enough and go for a peace deal. Provided he can claim to his fellow Russians that he has come out the victor. He will no doubt claim that even if the Russian invading troops are driven from Ukraine.

We are at war with Russia!! That's the truth

Everyone from President Joe Biden downwards is pretending that we are not at war with Russia. So we don't have Nato troops fighting Russian troops inside Ukraine and we don't have Nato missile batteries based in Poland launching strikes on Russsian troops in Ukraine or on Russian military targets on Russian soil. But don't let us fool ourselves, and sure as hell we're not fooling Vladimir Putin and his henchmen. First it was anti-tank missiles and anti-air missiles, plus sniper rifles and tons of ammo. Now the Czechs are sending T-72 tanks, Britain is going to send armoured personnel carriers, and soon there will be, no doubt, fighter jets being flown in from eastern Europe for the Ukrainian air force. Everything that is making life difficult for the Russian invasion force right now originates from Nato. Putin knows it but so far he hasn't dared say that Nato has declared war on Russia. So both Putin and Biden are engaged in a conspiracy of silence to avoid the awful truth which is that the Third World War has effectively begun. Or at least the Third European War. But at some point as the Western weaponry gives Ukraine a fighting chance of actually defeating the Russian troops and driving them back over the border, Putin may be forced to acknowledge publicly that Nato poses the gravest risk to Russia's existence and it's then he might calculate it's time for the conventional war to turn nuclear. So, while it is unquestionably true that Ukraine has survived so far largely due to the superior Nato weaponry as well as their fighting spirit and ingenuity, the longer the conflict goes on the more likely it will be that Putin and Biden will stop pretending there is no Russia-versus-Nato war, and the scale of the fighting will escalate out of control. Then Nato really will be at war with Russia, with very unpredicable consequences for the world.

Viktor Orban is Putin's dream Nato leader

Having won election for the fourth time in Hungary, strongman Viktor Orban is going to be Nato's nightmare. Who needs enemies when you've got Orban as a supposed friend? He has already broken ranks with the rest of Nato and the EU by saying he's perfectly happy to buy Russia's oil and paying what's more in roubles which is what Putin wants. What's with this guy? Either he wants to be a fully paid-up member of the western military and economic alliances, in which case obey the rules agreed by every other member of the two organisations, or go shack up with your mate Putin and good luck. Orban has autocracry written all over him. He cleverly pretended to be all righteous and western-values-orientated and was welcomed into the Nato and EU fold but now that Putin and Russia are in trouble over their disastrous and brutal war in Ukraine he seems to want to back up his old mate by doing his bidding on trading with Russia. The EU is talking of penalising Hungary over human rights issues but basically if Orban is going to take Putin's side over the war in Ukraine he should be served notice that he is in breach of all that is valued in the rest of Europe and will face tough penalties or even be chucked out. All the EU money that has poured into Hungary to bring it up to western European standards has transformed his country into a modern economy. But now after winning a fourth term he has shown he is really a Putanite and ready to help with Putin's money problems. Orban needs to be confronted with a bit of reality. If you want to stay a member of the club, obey the rules!

Will Putin be toppled by the disastrous war in Ukraine? No, he won't

Everyone in the West is hoping and praying, and believing, that Vladimir Putin, will somehow be toppled/unseated/dumped by the Moscow elite because of the disastrous way the war in Ukraine has been handled and the worldwide condemnation of the atrocities against civilians that are emerging daily. Surely, the argument goes, Putin will be blamed for destroying Russia's reputation and future prosperity and his closest and super-rich associates will force him out in order to safeguard their wealth and possessions. Of course,the opposite is the case. Those who have been made rich by being loyal to Putin have no one else to turn to. They need Putin to stay in power to preserve their riches. Without Putin at the top of the wealth pyramid, the whole structure will collapse. The superyachts that haven't yet been seized by zealous western sanctions police will be gone for ever. Their lifestyles will plummet. So it's in their interest to keep Putin in power. Those in the West who are convincing themselves, like Joe Biden is doing, that someone as monstrous as Putin cannot surely remain in power, are failing to look at the odds the right way around. The odds of Putin surviving have to be examined from the Russian point of view, not the western point of view. More than 80 per cent of the Russian population think Putin is a great leader. He has totally won the information war inside Russia. He has convinced the average Russian that what his noble troops are doing in Ukraine is saving that country from Nazism and bringing it back to the glory days of the Soviet Union. All the reports and pictures of dead civilians lying in the streets of Bucha and elsewhere are all part of a huge scam by Ukraine and its western backers to undermine and destroy Russia. This is the Moscow propaganda department working at full stretch and the Russian people appear to believe it to be true. And all this talk of sending Putin and his generals to The Hague war crimes tribunal is part of the same plot by the US and Nato to disrespect and undermine the Russian nation. Western leaders are fooling themselves if they think Putin is going to be overthrown. There is no one in Moscow with the power or the desire to overthrow him. Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. And the West is the enemy. Putin believes this with every drop of blood in his body. He has always believed it and he will never give up. He will eventually achieve what he wants to achieve in Ukraine and if it takes a million dead Ukrainians, he won't care because he will say it's the West's fault for daring to expand their alliance to the borders of Russia. His hatred for the West is what's driving him, and the hatred is getting stronger as each day passes.

Petraeus on Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine

Incompetent Russian military chiefs developed “an abysmal campaign design” for invading Ukraine, one of America’s most experienced combat commanders has told The Times. General David Petraeus who led coalition forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has watched the war in Ukraine with an increasing sense of bewilderment. “There certainly does not appear to be the kind of unity of command and effort that we achieved in Iraq and Afghanistan where one commander exercised operational control over all US and coalition forces as well as over 100,000 civilian contractors in each theatre,” he said. He predicted that Russian command and control in Ukraine would get “even more muddled as units are withdrawn from around Kyiv, reconstituted, replacing personnel, tank and other vehicle losses, moved and committed to reinforce the modest gains in eastern Ukraine north of the Donbas”. The war was being run from Moscow, he said. “Presumably the leaders in Moscow thought they could do a better job,” he said. But this meant troops on the ground in Ukraine had to wait for their orders from the Kremlin hundreds of miles away. “Unlike in Iraq and Afghanistan where the directive was: ‘in the absence of orders, figure out what they should have been and execute aggressively’, “Petraeus said. For months before the invasion the Russian forces deployed to the border with Ukraine had carried out live-fire exercises and appeared to be engaged in extensive armoured manoeuvres as if rehearsing for D-Day. However, Petraeus ridiculed the Russian pre-invasion rehearsals. “It is a complete mystery to me what the Russian forces were doing during the many months of training exercises on the border. It is starting to appear that they were camping, not training,” he said. There were innumerable reasons why the Russian forces had failed. Petraeus listed some of them: “vast overestimation of Russian military capabilities, considerable underestimation of Ukrainian capabilities, lack of unity of command, abysmal campaign design, wholly insufficient lack of forces required for the tasks envisioned, lack of a professional non-commissioned officer corps [a crucial component of western armies], and a vastly inadequate logistics structure to support the forces deployed once the rail system was not available”. Petraeus outlined other basic weaknesses. He said the Russian troops suffered from “a lack of standards for performance of the most basic of tasks” For example, failing to stay dispersed when either moving or in static positions., making them vulnerable to attack. The Russian troops had also failed to achieve combined arms effects, another key element of the forces under his command in Iraq and Afghanistan. In other words, failing to employ armour, infantry, engineers, mortars and artillery together. Petraeus said he had seen no evidence of any proper integration of air and ground operations. There had also been “abysmal tactical communications” which was why so many generals and colonels had been killed, forced by confusing signals to move to the front to try and sort out logistical and operational glitches. Another mystery was that the invasion force was equipped with armoured vehicles and weapons systems “that are certainly not the cutting-edge models Russia was supposed to have been fielding”. On top of all that, up to 25 per cent of the Russian forces comprised of conscripts who had yet to complete one year of service., and they had inadequate kit. Was it possible that Vladimir Putin was not being kept abreast of all these disastrous military mistakes, as has been claimed by both US and British intelligence chiefs? Petraeus who became director of the CIA after completing his command in Afghanistan in July 2011, replied: “It has to be inescapable to Putin that Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv and Russia has lost., and also that Russia has failed to encircle Kharkiv, failed to break through at Mykolaiv and hence be unable to take Odessa, fallen far short of getting to Dnipro in central Ukraine and has made only modest, very costly, grinding gains around the Donbas [in the east].” “Beyond all that there can be no hiding the reports of the enormous losses of soldiers, weapon systems, armoured vehicles and commanders,” Petraeus said.

Bucha - the Russian Srebrenica

For six weeks the Russian military have been killing civilians indiscriminately and deliberately, targetng apartment blocks without concern for the residents inside. Now in a small town outside Kyiv called Bucha, bodies have been found lying in the streets after the withdrawal of Russian invading troops. Already there are reports linking the Bucha killings to the mass slaughter of men and boys in the Bosnian town of Srebrenica by the Serbs in July 1995 in the civil war in the former Yugoslavia. More than 8,000 Bosnian Muslim males were forced out of Srebrenica up into the hills above the town and mown down. The slaughter in Bucha appears not to be on that scale but the brutal and dismissive murder of civilians as part of an attempt to create terror in Ukrainian communities is a war crime. Vladimir Putin has been claiming that his troops were sent into Ukraine to de-Nazify the country. But he and his army have acted exactly like the Nazis in the Second World War, killing civilians to try and force the country into submission.The man in charge of the Serb army whose troops were responsible for the Srebrenica killings was General Ratko Mladic. He was captured and sent to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague and was sentenced to life imprisonment. It will never happen but wouldn't it be a triumph for the free world if Putin and his two henchmen, Sergei Shoigu, defence mnister, and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff, were arrested on a war crimes warrant and delivered to the judges at The Hague tribunal.

Will the war in Ukraine turn American war planning for the future upside down?

In recent years war planning for the future - with China in mind - has all been about long-range precision weapons, flexible and adaptable and smaller forces, esecially Marines, who can deploy in tight units around the Indo-Pacific armed with anti-ship missiles, hypersonic weapons, armed drones and cyber systems. Now after coming up to six weeks of a very conventional-type land war in Ukraine, a lot of US retired generals are getting worried about the China focus. What about Russia? What about a future land war in Europe? And above all, what about all those tanks that are currently being mothballed or switched from the Marine Corps to the Army? The greatest focus of concern is the future of the US Marine Corps. Pretty well every retired Marine Corps commandant is rebelling against the strategy of General David Berger, the present Commandant of the Marine Corps who is implementing vast changes to the famous fighting force. Tanks are going and in their place are coming long-range artillery, fancy precision weapons and far less focus on the sheer combat fighting power of the legendary corps. Even Jim Mattis, former Marine Corps commander who became Donald Trump's first defence secretary, is against the Berger Doctrine. They all want the Marine Corps to stay as it is, with tanks galore, heavy armoured vehicles and massive bruce-force fighting power. They point to Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. What if Putin tries to go further? There could well be an all-arms war in Europe ahead. Berger in their view is immasculating the Marine Corps. Berger has won over Congress with his strategy, or at least he had before Russia invaded Ukraine, so the retired generals are probably fighting a lost cause. But the Russian aggression has set the cat among the pigeons. If the US military becomes too obsessed with China and a future war in Indo-China, America, and particularly the Marine Corps, is going to be unprepared for the hard grind of a land war in Europe. Berger is going to have an increasingly hard time convincing his fellow retired Marine commandants that he has got his strategy right.

Russian military caught napping

I'm assuming Putin's military chiefs HAVE told him that the Ukrainians managed to fly two helicopters over the Ukrainian border into Russia and drop missiles on a fuel storage site in Belgorod. An amazing operation. Amazing, because if the Belgorod site had any air defence systems around the Russian military failed to fire them or if they didn't have any air defence systems around then a key fuel location was left vulnerable to attack. Putin will be steaming. Not for the first time. It's yet another humiliation for Putin and his defence minister Sergei Shoigu. I doubt they will be going on any fishing trips together in the near future or ever again. It was certainy a bold move by Ukraine but they must have had pretty good intelligence about whether the fuel depot was defended or not. Perhaps by some US eyes in the sky? Anyway it opens a new chapter in the Ukraine war. Kyiv is basically saying to Moscow, you attack us in our country and we attack you in yours. The missile strike on Belgorod will not be the last, of that I am sure. There must be a long list of potential targets for Ukraine's courageous attack helicopter pilots. It will make Putin and the Kremlin even more jumpy about those pesky Ukrainians who were supposed to surrender on day one or two of the invasion. It could be a long war, months if not years.