Could Afghanistan be in a civil war by September?

Hardly anyone is predicting that once the US and coalition troops leave Afghanistan in the next few weeks, the country will suddenly leap towards peace. It will be the opoosite. Even the normally cautious General Scott Miller, US commander in Afghanistan, is warning of a possible civil war as rival tribes fight it out for supremacy. And unless the Afghan security forces with all the training and equipment and money they have received over the last two decades can find it in their heart to defend the country from the Taliban and the many militias that have sprung up, then Afghanistan is surely doomed to more bloodshed and slaughter. Miller is worried and if he is worried everyone hoping for stability and democratic government in Afghanistan should also be worried. Biden must be worried but he has made the decision to end America's involvement in the war and he is going to stick to it. He has little alternative. The US either stays in or gets out of Afghanistan, there's no middle way, and after 20 years it's definitely time to leave. Trump thought so and Biden agreed. But what if General Miller is right and mayhem follows the departure of the last US soldier? Does the West just let them get on with it? The Pentagn's plan to keep on training the Afghan security forces but in some other country is pretty daft. It will be very expensive and won't add anything that has not already been tried and tested since the advise and training programme took over from the combat mission in 2014. Trump ordered all US troops out of Somalia but agreed to let the Pentagon, or more specifically Africa Command, continue with training Somalian forces out of the country, like in Kenya. But it hasn't worked well and now the Pentagon is talking about sending US troops back into Somalia, if Biden approves. That should be a lesson for the Pentagon. Continuing to train Afghan troops somewhere in central Asia isn't going to be effective. So if Miller is right and the bad boys launch into a mighty offensive to take Kabul, there is not a lot the US can do about it, except keep enough troops in the country to protect the huge embassy complex and the 1,000 or so diplomats and civilian staff who work there. There will be no Saigon moment hopefully, with US diplomats scambling onto helicopters to escape the capital. But the omens are looking increasingly bad.

Donald Trump "shouted" at top general

General Mark Milley, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff for 16 months under President Trump and continuing under President Biden, must reflect every day in his office in the Pentagon how life has changed for him under the different administrations. According to a new book by a Wall Street Journal journalist Michael Bender, Milley had some pretty fiery moments with Trump, including a session of effing shouting matches. Trump has denied any such conversation took place but Bender swears he has had it all confirmed by multiple sources. The greatest dispute between Trump and his top general was over the Black Lives Matter protests in Washington last summer. Trump wanted Milley to bring in the troops to clear the streets but Milley demurred, telling the former president that he didn't have the legal authority. It's something which Trump and probably many others never understood. The chairman of the joint chiefs may be the top general in the US military and the president's principal military adviser but he is not a service commander, he is not actually in charge of troops, so he doesn't have the legal authority to bring them into Washington even if he wanted to which he definitely didn't because he opposed the idea of having active-duty soldiers filling the streets of the capital. According to Bender's book, Trump was furious and started berating Milley using highly colourful language. And the book claims Milley answered back although not in the same language. If Milley did answer back then I'm surprised he survived as joint chiefs chairman. Whatever happened, it must have been a tough old time for Milley with Trump as president who never liked being told no. Somehow I can't see Joe Biden effing and blinding at anyone, let alone the chairman of the joint chiefs.

UFOs! Is the CIA keeping something back?

The wonderful thing about UFOs or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs), as the Pentagon likes to call them, is that we can all go on believing there are little aliens out there in amazing spaceships even though the CIA and the US intelligence community in general have finally said they have no evidence there are any such things floating out there watching us. Yes, but the CIA wouldn't tell us if there WERE aliens would they, most people would say. After last week's report on UFOs/UAPs which gave a pretty inconclusive answer to the question we all had in our minds, a Hill-HarrisX poll in the US revealed that 70 per cent of Americans believe the government is not telling all and that there is some secret secret stuff which will never be revealed. You see? It's because we want there to be alien spaceships. We need alien spaceships. We like the idea of another universe where beings of some sort are even now going shopping in their version of Waitrose or Morrisons or Wallmart. So we are never ever going to be satisfied with the intel boys or the Pentagon when they say, "calm down, calm down, all those flashing lights and zoomy things whizzing all over the place and frightening pilots to death are phenomena ok but not alien phenomena, or at least we don't think so". Yeah, but what about that report marked So Secret No One Must Read It Except The President? It's full of scary stuff, right? Donald Trump tapped his nose once and said he knew UFO stuff he couldn't reveal and we know he always tells the truth. So he has seen it. Why can't we lesser mortals? Last week's Pentagon report said there had been 140 UFO/UAP reports since 2004 but none of them suggested anything extraterrestrial. WE DON'T BELIEVE YOU!!!

Russian hypersonic missiles in Syria

Russia has sent two MiG-31K fighter jets armed with hypersonic, nuclear-capable “carrier-killer” ballistic missiles to its base in Syria as the Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth strike force continues to sail in the eastern Mediterranean. It’s the first time Russia has deployed its Kinzhal hypersonic missile, claimed to have a maximum speed of ten times the speed of sound (Mach 10) and a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,243 miles). It’s the latest sign of Moscow adopting a high-profile aggressive stance towards Britain’s inaugural operational deployment of the Royal Navy’s £3.2 billion, 65,000-tonne carrier, which led last week to a confrontation in the Black Sea with HMS Defender, part of the strike force. The Russian base at Khmeimim in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia is being used to shadow American, British and other Nato warship exercises in the eastern Mediterranean. Three Tu22M3 Backfire-C strategic bombers are also currently at the Khmeimim airbase taking part in the Russian exercise in the eastern Mediterranean. The two MiG-31K Foxhounds will participate in monitoring “the actions of the [Royal Navy] aircraft carrier group”, Russian military reports said. The presence of Russia’s new hypersonic anti-ship missile at the Khmeimim airbase raises the stakes once again. A Russian ministry of defence video shows one of the MiG-31K Foxhounds armed with the Kinzhal hypersonic missile taking off from the base. The Backfire bombers are armed with long-range cruise missiles. The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) missile was one of the new generation of weapons highlighted by President Putin who claimed Russia was in the lead in developing and deploying systems capable of of reaching speeds up to Mach 20. The Avangard missile, also nuclear-capable, is claimed to have a top speed of 20 times the speed of sound. HMS Queen Elizabeth accompanied by two destroyers, two frigates, an Astute class nuclear-powered attack submarine and two support vessels, is on a 28-week, 26,000 nautical mile maiden deployment which will take it to India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and the South China Sea. The incident in the Black Sea when the Type 45 destroyer HMS Defender was hounded by Russian coastguard ships and fighter jets after leaving the south Ukrainian port of Odessa led to a series of angry statements by Moscow and London. Moscow claimed a coastguard ship fired warning shots at the Royal Navy destroyer and fighter jets dropped four bombs in front of the warship. This was denied by the Ministry of Defence in London but reports from the ship showed the crew was put on high alert and there were hostile radio messages from the Russian military. Five Russian navy warships, including a guided-missile cruiser, are participating in the eastern Mediterranean exercise.

Double Covid vaccination has to mean something surely?

It has now got to a ridiculous state where the millions of people who have received double Covid vaccinations are still being treated in exactly the same way as people who have either received one or no jabs or have refused to take them at all. Travelling to an amber country on the government's traffic light system could be so much easier and more practical if an individual with two vaccines showing on his mobile phone NHS App just has to show that and get on the plane. Why is this not happening? The UK government is talking about it but only for later in the summer, like August. So what's the point of the double vaccination if the obvious benefits of having them make no difference whatsoever - apart from keeping them safe from catching the infection of course. The sef-isolation business after returning from an amber country is tedious and over the top if you have had the two vaccines done and dusted. Why is this not being taken into account? Yesterday Malta was put on the green list but immediately Malta said they would only accept British tourists if they have had the double vaccination. Voila! The Maltese government sees the sense in this. Why can't the UK government? The traffic light system is the UK government's system, not the rest of Europe's, so Europe is far more interested in the double vaccination programme. Apart from Spain which just said all UK tourists are welcome without even having to produce a negative test, provided they fill in a special health form and get a Q code to enter the country. Passenger planes going to places like Barcelona have subsequently been pretty full. So the system works. But then they have to come back to UK and stay at home without going anywhere for ten days unless they take an extra Covid test on the fifth day which, if negative, allows them to be given their freedom. But they still have to do a test on the eighth day. So that's three Covid tests: day 2, day 5 and day 8 after returning. That's big money because it has to be done through private clinics. Meanwhile the double vaccination proof sits in the NHS App and no one in officialdom is remotely interested in looking at it. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

Nikki Haley is tryng to face both ways at the same time

An esteemed Royal Navy admiral who was First Sea Lord once famously said that a warship cannot be in two places at the same time. Can't argue with that. But this is exactly what Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and ex-US ambassador to the United Nations, is tryng to do right now. She wants to run for the White House in 2024, so she has to be nice to Donald Trump but Trump himself and Trumpite Republicans can't forgive her for what she said after the infamous January 6 insurrection riots in the Capitol, accusing the former president of stirring up his supporters to march on Congress. Now after a lot of reflection she has realised that that comment pretty well destroyed her chances of being a candidate in 2024, let alone a Trump-supported candidate. So she is madly rowing back and pointing out how much she enjoyed working for Trump and how decisive he was etc etc. She's not fooling Trump or those Republican politicians who have remained 100 per cent loyal to the ex-president and have said not a word of criticism about Trump's role in the January 6 drama. Haley probably thought that by speaking out as she did against Trump that it would bring her name shooting forward as the right candidate for 2024. But she got that wrong. Trump remains the Big Man in the Republican party and she has got to fight her way out of the mess she found herself in when she spoke what she thought was the truth. In fact what WAS the truth. It's a dangerous game in politics to be honest which is why she is now talking so nicely about her former boss, even to the extent that she has vowed to step aside and back Trump all the way for the White House in 2024 if that is what he decides to do. So we're back to being in two places at once. It can't be done. She either thinks Trump behaved badly before the January 6 insurrection or she doesn't. She can't have it both ways and most Republicans will look at her recent pro-Trump statements with a large chunk of cynicism. But playing it both ways is what she has chosen to do, and if Trump eventually decides not to run, she, I have no doubt, will rush in and put her name down. In the meantime we are going to hear a lot from Nikki Haley about how great Trump is and was. Oh dear.

Kamala Harris beats Trump to the Mexican border but only just

At last the US vice president is heading for the Mexican border. It was in March that Kamala Harris was asked by Joe Biden to take responsibility for the immigration nightmare at the border. For reasons that I have never been able to understand she declined to go to the border to see for herself what all the trouble was about. Now she has decided to go but only just in time. She is going on Friday and next week one Donald Trump will be making the same journey and I'm sure he will make a big hooha about what the Biden administration is or isn't doing about immigration. And of course he has already made a lot of fuss today about how Kamala has only decided to go to the Mexican border - El Paso - once she heard he was going. Ho ho. But she opened herself up to this sort of rebuke by failing to make the trip a long time ago. There is nothing like seeing things first hand and her refusal to go until now just makes it look bad, for her and for her political future. Now when she does turn up there will be even more media focus and she will have to come away with more than a few trite comments. Had she gone in March or April she could have legitimately said she was just getting a first-hand look at the problems and would go away and think. Now, after three months have passed, she will need to produce more than that, a hint perhaps of a strategy for controlling immigration humanely. Good luck, Kamala, I think you will need it. I'm sure Trump is rubbing his hands in anticipation.

Don't make any more Covid promises, Boris

It's one thing to sound optimistic and positive about the post-Covid future but we have had so many promises in the past which haven't born fruit. The June 21 Freedom Day slipped into the shadows and now it's July 19. Boris sounds very confident that we will all be walking, eating, drinking, living free from that date. After such a long time in the lockdown masked doldrums it's hard to believe being able to walk into a shop or board a bus without being covered up. And we've had so many variants of this wretched virus, it's hard to share Boris's confidence. But let's say he's right and July 19 becomes Covid freedom day, will we really feel free? Free like before Covid became the bane of our lives? I suspect that in a lot of people, probably of the slightly middle-to-older generation, will still feel a certain reluctance to go whoopee and drop all the restrictions that have changed our lives for so long. Already health experts are saying that the flu this winter will be as bad as Covid. You see? It's that kind of world now. Soon there will be new rules to cover flu, whereas before. flu was flu, something we all put up with. There is no such thing as a risk-free life but that's ok. Yet now, after the Covid pandemic we have got used to the government telling us what we can and can't do and we have become lesser human beings as a result. Free will has gone. For example, travelling to an amber-listed country and returning is a nightmare of testing and form-filling, and then self-isolating and more testing. It's life by government control. All for the right reasons I'm sure but I don't want governments in general to start thinking that in case there is another Covid-style pandemic in the future we all need to be regulated permanently from now on so as to be ready for the next drama. If July 19 is freedom day then let's hope everyone can embrace it and feel a huge weight lifting from our lives. But somehow I doubt that will be the case. A lot of people, perhaps most people, will now always feel more cautious about life.

The terrible Covid divisions

Brazil has suffered 500,000 deaths from Covid and there is little sign that the speed of the virus in this country and in the rest of South America is slowing. Brazil is struggling to get enough vaccines while the richer countries in the West are enjoyng a glut of vaccines and promise to give millions of vaccine doses to the nations that are desperately in need. But the pandemic has been with us for eighteen months and it is tragic that the world is divided between those countries who are now reaching the end of the nightmare and the others who are still at the peak of their traumas. It was always going to be like this because this is the way the world works. But a huge effort is now required to accelerate the programmes and to boost vaccination programmes where they are most needed. It seems immoral for the better-off countries to be predicting a return to normality in the next few months while other parts of the world have nothing but grim foreboding to look forward to. Inequalities will never be removed but countries such as Brazil and others in South America and Africa need to be given priority assistance. I don't trust the World Health Organisation to carry this out. They have proven once again to be an over-stuffed bureaucracy, too slow to make the big decisions and too reluctant to acknowledge a pandemic when it was staring at them in the face. Joe Biden has many troubles at home to sort out, not least the battle over getting Congress to approve his infrastructure plans and the continuing failure to meet the immigration challenges. But his voice should be the loudest in demanding vaccines for everyone, especially in the most desperate nations.

Iran marches even more to the right

Just when you think the world can't take much more bad news, Iran votes in a new president who is about as conservative as you could get. Top judge and cleric Ebrahim Raisi sounds like a return to the days of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Stubborn, unyielding and totally anti-Western. I never understand the Iranians. There is a huge younger population, many of whom are desperate to enjoy the sort of life that much of the West takes for granted. But they still vote for a hard hardliner who will consider conceding anything to the international community as anathema. However, despite the bad omens, Raisi has said he wants to improve Iran's economy which will only be possible if he starts to talk to the US because he will have to find a way of lifting at least some of the strangling economic sanctions. It doesn't mean he will leap at the chance of holding a summit with Joe Biden and promise to stop violating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. But if there is such a thing in the Farsi language as quid pro quo, then President-elect Raisi will need to offer something in return for less restrictive sanctions. If he doesn't, then the younger generation who voted for him or presumably voted for him if the election figures can be believed, will soon become disillusioned. Unfortunately, Iran is in the same ballpark as North Korea, although in a different way. Despite denials going back decades, Iran has been pursuing the capability to build nuclear bombs so as to be ready to develop them if needed as the ultimate blackmail weapon. They have gone a long way, despite relentless covert action by Israel, and are closer today than they were when the Obama nuclear deal was signed. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say over what happens with Iran's nuclear programme and he has always said it would be against Islam to develop nuclear weapons, but with Iran becoming even more conservative under the new leader Ebrahim Raisi, I doubt anyone in the White House, let alone Tel Aviv, is feeling happy about the election result.

Biden will be wary of meeting Kim Jong-un

Joe Biden seems to have won few if any plaudits for meeting Vladimir Putin so early on in his administration. So what chance has he of receiving any praise if he decides to do a Trump and invite Kim Jong-un to a summit. The North Korean leader has already announced that he is preparing his country for confrontation with the US. With so many problems around the world, it must be so galling for the new president to know that none of his predecessors got anywhere with Kim Jong-un or his late father or grandfather. It's one issue that is pretty well unsolvable. Kim has his nuclear bombs and he doesn't want to give them up. If he agrees to unilateral disarmament, he feels (as far as I can see) that he will lose all power and respect. So it's a non-runner. He will hang on to them because he has nothing else. He can't provide enough food for his people to eat but he has his stock of nuclear bombs and it's difficult to see him giving any concession to Biden. As a result, it may be that Biden will do what other presidents have done, apart from Trump, and that is to keep it all on the back burner and hope Kim can be contained without endangering the world. Poor Jake Sullivan, the super bright national security adviser, had quite a problem trying to impress on the media that the Biden/Putin summit in Geneva achieved a lot and dismissed critics who said all the prizes had gone to Putin. But can you imagine Jake Sullivan putting a spin on a Biden/Jong-un summit, if it were ever to happen? Trump had a go and got nowhere. Biden would be wise to keep any statements on North Korea quiet and non-hostile and leave contacts between the US and North Korea to diplmats and officials working out of the public and media eye.

Biden and "negative" media

Even the ultra-calm Joe Biden got hot under the collar when confronted by a persistent CNN reporter after the summit with Vladimir Putin. He accused her of being too negative with her questions and derided the fact that reporters always seemed to want to downgrade any achievements he had made at the Geneva summit with a man who is at the opposite end of the political spectrum. I can understand why Biden was a bit miffed when the American reporters failed to ask questions filled with admiration for what he and Putin had discussed together. But I'm afraid, Mr President, that's not the way it works. It is quite natural for good reporters to ask slightly edgy questions. It doesn't mean they are being negative. They just want decent answers that will make more interesting headlines than ones that just say the summit was constructive or covered all the issues or, worst of the lot, was broad-ranging. Biden objected when the CNN reporter asked him why he was confident that Putin could be trusted. It's a perfectly reasonable question but it put Biden on the spot. He had to find a reply which kept the positive mood from the summit alive while somehow addressing the question without insulting Putin. He couldn't find it, so instead he harangued the reporter for putting words into his mouth and asking negative questions. He could and should have answered without losing his top. That's what clever politicians do. Putin was pretty good at just avoiding the awkward questions and saying sensible and headliney things like he felt no hostility during the summit. What made it worse for Biden was that later when he had calmed down he actually apologised to the reporter. That may have made the reporter feel good but it was a touch weak I thought. Donad Trump of course hated the media and any questions he didn't like he started shouting at the reporter until he or she was prevented from asking the question and was told to sit down and shut up. Barack Obama was clever at avoiding awkward questions by answering with a long diatribe that never seemed to end and provided answers that he had already given several times over. Biden must get on with the media but, better still, he must find the clever answers to the nasty questions.

Biden and Putin get on shock!

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have not finished their first summit together as bosom pals but they looked pretty pleased with each other. Putin was respectful towards Biden calling him an experienced statesman and admitting he was very different from Donald Trump. I guess that's a start. Not a reset in relations exactly but a new beginning between two guys who have been around a long time and probably realise that there's little point in continuing with insult diplomacy. It's always better to talk rather than berate. Biden is not a berater anyway. He speaks quietly. Putin, too, is no Krushchev. He doesn't bash the table with his shoe. He is more cunning than that. But the only real noise from the summit came when the journalists covering the event were confronted by Russian and American security and there was a right old rampage as reporters pushed and shoved and shouted. When journalists are prevented from being in the right place to cover the big event they give up all sense of dignity and just go mad. Whch is what happened, while Putin and Biden looked on with some amusement and not a lot of sympathy. I have no doubt there were some issues where the two leaders found little consensus and when Biden suggested that Russia was trying to militarise the Arctic Putin said America's fears were unfounded. It's a bit like China denying it is militarising the South China Sea but Putin clearly wanted to keep the language soft and gentle and to avoid any sharp words. He showed little if any sympathy for his home political opponent Navalny, saying it was all his fault that he was currently in prison. But again, Putin kept his voice on an even keel. No finger-waving. So, all in all, a worthwhile summit between two worthy adversaries.

Vladimir Putin is a wordy adversary

Joe Biden who meets with the Russian leader in Geneva tomorrow described Vladimir Putin at a press conference in Brussels as a "worthy adversary". I'm wondering whether he meant to say "wordy" rather than worthy. Worthy seems a bit of an odd choice of word as it implies Putin has merit and is someone whose reputation and record are worthy of due consideration. Unless Biden meant worthy as in a bit of an old bore, in other words slow and tedious. Like a Shakespearian comic worthy. But if he meant to say worthy as in Putin is a leader who is worth dealing with because he is a man of some substance, then it hinted at Biden offering to joust with the Russian leader on equal terms, not amicable but riding along together bare-chested as worthy champions of their different causes and views. I suspect Putin would like that, even if the word is a touch condescending. But if he meant to say wordy that might make more sense because when Putin delivers his annual address to the nation he goes on and on and on. He can speak for hours when he wants to and could drive Biden mad by not allowing him to get a word in edgeways at the summit tomorrow. But then Biden used the old favourite word "adversary". Not quite enemy but not far off. China for example is always referred to as an adversary or potential adversary. Russia is the old enemy, so using the word adversary is kind of one step down but Putin will know what he means. They are, after all, both born with the Cold War in their blood and genes. So Biden is trying to get the best of both worlds. Worthy as in "I respect you, Putin", but also "Watch out sunny Jim, I've got big guns behind me and if you want to play hard ball and go for a scrap then I can show you what the US of A does and can do to adversaries." I'm sticking to my initial interpretation and still think Biden meant to say wordy and then his tongue tripped. So when Putin raises this tomorrow and says Biden is stuck in the Cold War by calling him an adversary, the US president can reply: "Vladimir, Vladimir, you misheard, I said wordy because you do go on you know."

America back in the family

No one at the G7 and Nato summits has had to mention Donald Trump but he has been the large but now irrelevant elephant in the room throughout all the discussions. You can tell by all the back-slapping and arm-in-arm strolls and smiles that everyone is so relieved and happy that it's Joe Biden in their midst. When they all say America is back they mean America (Trump) is no longer behind their back complaining and whingeing and disrespecting and bellowing. It makes life in the summit corridors so much easier. The leaders gathering on the beach for a barbecu in Cornwall was so relaxed they actually got criticised for not obeying social distancing rules. But for heaven's sake, give it a rest, leave them alone. Apart from Macron putting his arm through Biden's and striding along like a couple of best mates (who incidentally had never met in person before), there weren't any naughty hugs or embracings that breached the rules. Just lots of elbow-to-elbow contact and as the British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, helpfully put it, there's a lot of fresh air down on the beach and that helped a lot. You can always rely on Foreign Secretary Raab to put the right verbal spin on anything. So all in all the Cornish G7 seemed pretty successful and the Nato summit will be all friendly and lovey-dovey, provided the Turkish leader Erdogan doesn't spoil the party spirit by playing hard to get and insisting he wants to hang on to his new Russian friends who sold him their sophisticated S-400 air defence system which clashes horribly with every other Nato air defence system and threatens America's most advanced fighter jet the F-35. Erdogan must try and smile a lot when he meets Biden to show that really he is a loyal ally and trusted member of Nato and then everyone can go home later this week feeling all warm - and united.

Biden's belt-and-road plan

Joe Biden in sunny Cornwall at the G7 summit is keen to start competing with China's belt-and-road programme which has flooded Asia, Africa and even parts of Europe with investment and construction and development as part of a broad all-embracing strategy to build its mighty world trade business and become the most influential nation on the planet. The trouble is Beijing has been at it for decades while the rest of the world watched in amazement. It was the old Silk Road all over again. But no one in the West seemed to have the nouse or leadership or vision to compete with China and stall the Chinese from appearing in their hard hats in every region of the world building roads, railways, airports, ports etc. Now it's all too late. Biden has woken up to the potential future threat. It's not just about trade for China, it's about building a superpower presence, helping one country to build roads in return for having a naval base for visiting PLA warships, and helping another country to develop a port in return for an airbase. China has always been good at strategy, the West not so much. But I doubt somehow the G7 will be able to agree unanimously to start a belt-and-road strategy to rival what China has aready achieved. China decides to do something and gets on with it relentlessly. The US needs the support of too many other countries to do the same. The European leaders, for example, wanted a big trade agreement with Beijing and although that's on hold for the moment, leaders such as Chancellor Merkel of Germany are keen to push ahead with deals with China. That would effectively undermine Biden's new idea which would be seen by Beijing as a deliberate attempt to build a new Cold War-style trade bloc against China. So for the G7 suddenly to launch a Marshall plan for the world to counter China, the European Union would have to rethink their whole trade strategy. I doubt it will happen. There is no question that the other G7 leaders have welcomed Biden into their fold and are happy they no longer need to deal wth Donald Trump. But grand strategies from the White House make them feel nervous. I'm sure the final communique from Cornwall will be full of bright and positive language. But a western-stye belt-and-road scheme to rival Beijing? I think that's unlikely.

The Queen knows how to handle American presidents

A lot of people, especially of the younger generation, probably think of Love Actually when giving their view of American presidents visiting Britain. The president in the movie came across as pushy and disrespectful and got one in the eye when the British prime minister, Hugh Grant, told a joint press conference that Britain wouldn't stand for bullying from an ally and pronounced that Britain had greatness, giving as an example David Beckham's right foot - and left foot. Joe Biden is no bully and after a lifetime in politics and eight years as vice president he knows how to treat his fellow leaders and he will certainly know what to do and what not to do when he has tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle on Sunday. All of which made it somewhat surprising that he authorised a senior official in London to give a warning to Boris Johnson about Northern Ireland. American presidents have a thing about Northern Ireland and as many of them have had Irish roots somewhere in their family tree they believe they have a special (there's that word) right to interfere in Northern Ireland politics. Actually they have no right at all. It would be like the British prime minister going to Washington and warning the US president about human rights in Puerto Rico or the rights of polar bears in Alaska. Biden telling Boris what to do in Northern Ireland over the Brexit trade/border issue was out of order. Boris was sensible enough to say nothing and then to make sure after private chats with Biden that they both agreed on Northern Ireland and no more impolite words were spoken. As for the Queen, she has more experience than anyone on earth in dealing with visiting American presidents. Biden, like all of his predecessors, will temporarily forget that he is the most powerful man on the planet and will go all humble before her Majesty. That's the way it is.

Don't mention the word "special" - and they didn't

For the first time in living memory the president of the United States and the prime minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland didn't once mention the word "special" when they appeared before the press at the G7 summit in Cornwall. The relationship between the two countries was "important", in fact "more important" than ever. But the age-old special relationship upon which the US and UK have relied ever since the UK first bought the American Polaris ballistic missile to form our first Royal Navy nuclear deterrent in the 1950s has thrive until now. The two countries have boasted of having a special relationship for 70 years and no harm in that except that times have changed and the phrase now seems perhaps a little hackneyed. It's like when the US president describes France as America's oldest ally. Anyway Boris Johnson in his wisdom made it absolutely clear that he no longer wanted America to define the UK as having a special relationship with Washington because he reckons it sounds a little demeaning. As in, "Hey we're going over to the good old UK tomorrow. Oooh we have such a special relationship, and I just lurve the Queen." Well that's how Boris thinks and having said what he said or what he was reported to have said, Joe Biden didn't want to spoil the G7 summit by shaking Boris's hand and then turning to everyone and saying, "Boris and I have a special relationship". So "special" is now gone from the US/UK lexicon of diplomatic cliche phrases and everything from now on will be important. Until of course in three decades when that word will also be banned and a new consensus will be reached on a different word. It's possible of course that at the end of the summit Joe Biden will be so pleased with the results that he might forget what he was told not to say and might blurt out the importance of the special relationship rather than the importance of the relationship. It's all fairly meaningless stuff but in the case of the Britain and the US of A, history actually does prove that the two countries really do have a pretty damned good relationship. And that makes it special!

Welcome to Blighty President Biden

This is Joe Biden's show. Set in a smallish town in Cornwall the G7 summit will be all about Joe. That's the way it is. It was all about Donald Trump when he was the Big Boss but he scared the hell out of everyone, not physically but because no one knew what the hell he was going to do or say from one day to the next, never mind the previously agreed summit script. Biden will play by the rules I suspect and say all the right things but you can bet your life he will want to put his own stamp on the Cornish summit so that by the time he leaves, all his fellow leaders will be saying, "well well well, this guy knows his stuff". Biden, like all US presidents, has come with an extraordinary array of Secret Service men and women, and armoured cars flown in by C-17 transport aircraft, including the Beast, the president's mighty rocket-proof monster of a limousine. It must be such fun being president of the US of A. The Brits have gone mad as well, bringing in thousands of police from all over the country and all the flunkies and bottlewashers needed for a summit of this magnificence. Plus a Royal Navy frigate and assortment of naval patrol craft out at sea. The poor people of Cornwall won't have seen such an assemblage of uniforms and guns in their life. Biden is a pretty stylish guy and I reckon the people of Cornwall will take to him. The G7 summit mght even be a genuine success. Trump will be glowering wherever he is.

Don't come to the US, says Kamala in Guatemala

It's like telling children not to ask for ice creams while standing in front of a Mr Whippy van. With the great United States of America over the horizon, just beyond everyone's reach but so so tempting, Kamala Harris, vice president of the US of A, addressed the people of Guatemala and had just one message: "Don't go to the US." I'm a fan of the vice president and genuinely believe she will one day upgrade to president but a "don't go" message to people who are desperate to become American citizens and leave their poverty-struck, drugs-threatening, gangster-ruling lives ain't going to wash. They're going to have a go at climbing the wall whatever Kamala say. As I blogged yesterday, the immigration problem needs to be grasped with a strategically sensible and practical plan. Having Biden's deputy urging desperate people to stay at home doesn't sound like a plan to me. And she still hasn't visited the border itself to see what the challenge is. When she was asked in a TV intervew why she hadn't visited the US/Mexican border on the American side she seemed a little bemused why this was so important, and came up with the odd remark that she hadn't been to Europe either. Well she is leaving that honour to Joe Biden who will be spending a number of days in Europe soon without his deputy. Presumably she will be in charge back home. Hey, that will be your chance, Kamala, to slip into high-profile mode while the boss is away. If the White House flunkies let her that is.

Good luck in Guatemala, Kamala

To say that Kamala Harris has had a quiet five months as US vice president is possibly the understatement of the year. Apart from standing dutifully behind Joe Biden at White House official events she has been remarkably absent. Now she is off to Guatemala and Mexico as part of her Biden-given responsibility for the immigration crisis. Since she was appointed to the job she hasn't made any obvious inroads to the problem and according to helpful White House people her trip to foreign parts is not intended to be a soution-finding moment but a sort of get-to-know-you visit. By now surely there should be a Harris blueprint for sorting the whole thing out, ready for her to present to Guatemala and Mexico, the key countries enmeshed in the flow of migrants into the US, legally or illegally. But it seems not. No Big Ideas have emerged and her trip looks like being no more than a glad-handing couple of days. It's time Biden gave Harris real power to get the immigration challenge addressed fast and furious. Right now it's the opposite, more dainty steps in high-heeled shoes. Being vice president is always tough because there is no stated role as such. It's very much up to the president to delegate some of his onerous tasks to his deputy and leave the vice president to get on with it, and not, as in this case, get White House flunkies to lower expectations before she has even got on the plane.

Trump still obsessed with the 2020 election

Donald Trump cannot and will not let go of his belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, that it was somehow totally fraudulent and that, as he claimed in his first speech for nearly three months, huge numbers of dead people voted for Biden. The last accusation is the weirdest. It's one thing for a voting slip to be sent to a dead person but quite another for the dead person to rise up and put his or her tick in the box. But even if someone, alive, did the voting on behalf of the dead relative, why would that necessarily favour Biden rather than Trump? It is true that a large number of dead people or non-Americans living in other countries but who had once been a US taxayer, received pandemic stimulus cheques both under the Trump and Biden administrations. But even if dead people were given voting slips for the 2020 election, we're not talking millions of people, enough in other words to make a difference in the final ballot on voting day. So the dead people line is a side issue and was probably just made up by Trump. He didn't say he or the FBI had proof of dead people voting. Trump still has a huge following, proven by the adoring crowd who turned up in North Carolina for his first speech since February. OK he didn't start off with the fraudulent election stuff but his supporters knew it was coming and when it did, about an hour into his address, they went wild. They want to believe it too. The speech was not one of his greatest. It reminded everyone both in the convention hall and outside in the rest of the US that the former president is now becoming more and more bitter and therefore less and less effective as someone to consider for future office. He is still playing with the idea of standing for president again in 2024 but the thought of losing will surely change his mind. Meanwhile a dozen or so possible Republican candidates are already being lined up by the media. They include Mike Pence, no longer a committed Trumpite, who is almost definitely going to have a go. He of all potential candidates will be desperate for his old boss to slide off into retirement but he will never get Trump's support. There are still far right militia types who blame Pence for Trump's political downfall, so Pence has a hard road ahead of him if he wants to be president. If Trump does decide to stand, of course, then all bets are off and it will be Pence sliding into retirement.

UFOs - Unexplained Fanciful Objects

For the many people who believe that aliens have been flying spaceships around in our universe for ever the upcoming Pentagon report on unidentified flying objects (UFOs) or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) as the US military prefers to call them, is going to be disappointing. No proof one way or the other of aliens in spacesuits flashing around in whizzy space machines. No evidence that the hundreds if not thousands of sightings of glowing blobs, cigar-shaped objects and things that can change direction at phenominal speeds have come from some other universe or undiscovered planet or whatever. There is absolutely no doubt that US military pilots and navigators have seen all kinds of unexplained things in front of them or flashing past or even hovering close up but not one witness to these weird incidents has ever said they spotted an alien waving from the cockpit. Perhaps they did wave but they were going too fast to notice. Anyway, the Pentagon report will record all the wonderful sightings but conclude that there is no evidence of anything non-terrestrial. All they will say, or indicate, is that none of the sightings had anything to do with classified top secret experiments being carried out by the Pentagon. Black programmes as they call them involving blue skies-thinking super new high-tech skunk works missiles or aircraft. This is basically what the Pentagon has been saying ever since the first UFO hit the skies. Donald Trump didn't help when he was asked about the credibility of UFOs and replied along the lines that he knew stuff that could never be told, implying there was a report on his desk which outlined what the aliens looked like, where they came from and whether they were of hostile intent. I think the Trump reply was so in character that his hint that perhaps the UFO stuff was actually much more interesting was just pure Trumpism and not based on any classified report. UFOs as a concept is great fun but surely if aliens have been flying around for such a long time why the hell haven't they landed by now and introduced themselves? It could be the Russians of course.

The Queen, Boris, Erdogan and Putin on Biden's must-see list

When Joe Biden turns up in Europe for his first foreign trip he has four names on his priority meet list, two of whom will give him no hassle and the other two could be tricky. The White House probably said to Biden, "there's good news and bad news: Her Majesty the Queen has invited you to tea at Windsor Castle, Boris will have a session with you, no problem there, but the bad news is both Erdogan and Putin have agreed to meet you." Well, of course, as the president of the United States, you have to mix the good with the bad and the latter two will be more challenging and therefore probably more interesting. With the first two names on the meet-and-greet list, there is only one message which a visiting US president to the UK is expected to say and I'm sure Biden will do just that. He will tell the Queen how important the special relationship is between the US and UK and then at a press conference with Boris he will make it clear that the special relationship is still alive and well. Likewise when he attends the Nato summit in Brussels his script will include the words, "Nato remains the cornerstone of European and Atlantic security", just as the word "iron-clad" is always used when the US president or one of his senior cabinet members describes the relationship with Israel and with South Korea. But while the US under Biden will have no truck with Trump-like doubts about the Nato alliance, the relationship with Nato member Turkey will require a very careful choice of words. Biden will tell President Erdogan how important Turkey is as an ally but the Turkish leader likes to go his own way, like when he bought the Russian SS-400 air defence system despite pleas from Washington and Brussels and everyone in the alliance not to do so. Erdogan rejected all the pleas. It's too late now. Biden won't be ale to change Erdogan's mind. The equiment is already being installed. Big coup for Putin and bad news for Nato. The Biden and Erdogan chat will therefore be tricky. Erdogan is not the sort of leader who likes to be pushed around, so Biden will have to step carefully around the most sensitive issues. I'm sure he will manage it because as his first trip overseas it HAS to be seen as a success. Whether he will get any leeway with Putin everyone will be dying to find out. It will probably be like two parallel lines never meeting up. Fireworks? No. A damp squib? Yes.

Will Netanyahu's departure make any difference?

Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel's prime minister for so long it is difficult to imagine anyone else taking charge. But it looks like he will finally have to step from the world stage. Israel, or at least the complex mix of different-minded politicians, have decided it's time for a change. But will the exit of Netanyahu actually make any real difference to Israel's future, let alone the future of all Palestinians? I doubt the Palestinians are holding their breath. Nafthali Bennett, the man expected to replace Bibi is firmly on the right politically, doesn't believe in a separate state of Palestine, and his co-leader, Yair Lapid who would take over as prime minister in 2023 under the current sharing arragement agreed between them and their parties supports the two-state solution. But a helluva lot of people have supported the two-state option and not a lot has happened to advance it. So, pretty much status quo which is tough for the Palestinians, especially after the nightmare 11-day onslaught in Gaza last month. Netanyahu has warned that without him at the helm the security of Israel will be undermined and damaged. He was speaking presumably as someone who knows all the secret stuff and feels it would be wrong and potentially dangerous for anyone else to find out what goes on. But it's the view of a man who has been in charge since 2009 and can't bear the thought of handing over the reigns to someone else. And of course he knows that the protection he enjoyed as prime minister from the corruption charges waiting in the wings will vanish. He will have a tough fight on his hands in court.

The UK's Covid decision: scientists versus politicians again

Scientists are pleadinng with the UK government to put data before deadlines in judging whether to allow the whole country to go back to normal life on June 21st. Boris told us that June 21st was going to be the big day, so naturally everyone has been planning the rest of their lives from that date. But deadlines are fatal when so many things can go wrong. The closer we get to June 21st the less likely it seems that that will be the date of freedom after all. Too many scientists are now saying that the India variant - renamed the Delta variant by the World Health Organisation presumably to take the stigma out of it - makes it unwise for the government to stick with June 21st and should delay the big day until the end of June or maybe into July. Or August. And so it goes on. If the June 21st freedom day is delayed because of the Delta variant then the Boris government has to take the blame for allowing 20,000 people from India into the country when it knew that the variant was rampant. Now they're saying there's aother variant in the world, the Vietnam variant. Perhaps the WHO will call this the Theta variant since they're using the Greek alphabet to designate the different versions of Covid. How many planes I wonder are even now coming into Heathrow from Vietnam? There's bound to be at least one other variant before June 21st, so I'm holding out no hope whatsoever about June 21st. And then what about the traffic light system? Is there any chance Spain, France and Italy will be put on the green list in the next week? It seems not. Thanks to Delta it looks like Spain is going to stay amber. So, despite all the encouraging promises from the politicians, it will be the scientists who rule the day. This may be sensible but I suspect that scientists and medical experts will always err on the side of excessive caution. It's going to be doom and gloom for several more months!