Tenth anniversary of US Navy Seal's Operation Neptune's Spear

May 2 is the 10th anniversary of the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of Seal Team Six. May 2 2011 was when the US finally got revenge for the 9/111 terrorist attack which killed nearly 3,000 people. I was in Washington as The Times Pentagon Correspondent when the news first broke that the daring raid on bin Laden's secret, high-walled compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan had succeeded in identifying the leader of al-Qaeda as he emerged from his first floor bedroom and shooting him dead. It was one of the most extraordinary raids ever carried out by US special operations forces and gave Barack Obama the most dramatic moment in his presidency when he addressed the nation from the White House. Obama had been given several options when he was told that there was a reasonably high chance that Bin Laden was the 6ft 3ins man seen walking around the Abbottabad compound and deliberately not looking up to be caught by a passing surveillance satellite. First was the Big Bash option: hit the compound with a precision-guided bomb dropped by a B-2 stealth bomber. The problem with that option, easy as it sounded, was that the bomb would destroy the compound and leave no proof that Bin Laden was the man who had been walking around and was dead. There was also a risk that there would be collateral damage. In other words there were other village compounds not far away and there could be civilian deaths. So that was ruled out. Then there was the arned drone option but there were the same reservations. Where would be the proof to present to the world that Bin Laden had been killed? The third option given to Obama was the special operations raid but carried out with the Pakistanis to avoid having to do it without telling Pakistan what was about to happen. That was ruled out by Obama for very good reason. The Pakistani intelligence service which must have know Bin Laden was in Abbottabad, could not be trusted not to tip off the al-Qaeda founder and leader. So the fourth option became the only option, apart from doing nothing or waiting for further intelligence on identifying the Abbottabad compound resident. The fourth option was the covert Seal Team Six plan, to helicopter in 20 or so commandos to attack the compound, find Bin Laden and either capture him or kill him if he showed resistance. Theoretically they could have seized him but as soon as he emerged from a room where an AK47 Kalashnikov was sitting next to the bed, the double-tap shooting option was always going to be the most likely. Obama had his finest moment. Operation Neptune's Spear was the codename for the secret mission and Geronimo was the code sent from the Seals to the White House basement situation room where Obama and his national security team were sitting waiting to confirm that Bin Laden was dead.

The downfall of Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani has gone through several transmogrifications. He has just reached his lowest point but more of that later. For most of the world he burst onto the scene on and after 9/11 as the in-the-news-every-day mayor of New York City. He became one of the best known names. He was everywhere, representing one of the planet's greatest cities on the day of the most shocking terrorist attack in America's history. He spread confidence and reassurance and leadership and said what had to be said when it had to be said. He became worldwide famous. His next transmogrification (it's so much more solid a word than simply change) came when he became Donald Trump's go-to personal lawyer. The other side of this man began to emerge. Loyal to the point of embarrassment he reconstructed Trump's statements and sayings and rhetoric to mean something else, often with such twisted epxlanations it was laughable. The stardust accumulated during his brief time as mayor of New York during the worst of times began to blow away pretty rapidly. He became a laughing stock. As allegations against Trump piled up he played the role of outraged lawyer. I suspect people stopped believing anything he said. Now comes transmogrification number three. He gets a 6am bash-on-the-door visit from federal agents - it could have been Beijing or Pyongyang - and everything that's private, electronic or dodgy-looking is lifted from his apartment in Upper East Side, New York, and taken away by agents wearing gloves. The feds were looking for anything that might point fingers at Giuliani's goings-on in or re Ukraine and that fuss over whether Trump and co were involved in dirty tricks to smear Joe Biden when he was standing for the presidency. What a come down for the former hero mayor of New York. I can just see him answering the door in his silk dressing gown and looking flabbergasted at the pile-up of FBI agents standing at his door. "But do'nt you know who I am?" he might have said. The feds don't care who the hell you are or who you think you are. "Stand aside Mr Giuliani," they probably said. If there was any stardust left on his shoulders it has now all gone, just dust on the floor to be swept up along with everything else in his flat.

Biden's Afghan envoy sounds optimistic!

It is difficult to feel even remotely optimistic about Afghanistan's prospects for peace and happiness for all after the US and coalition forces have left later this year. But one voice has sounded a little tiny bit of hope. Zalmay Khalilzad, special envoy for Afghanistan appointed by Trump and staying on under Biden, has told Congress he doesn't think Kabul will fall to the Taliban as a consequence of the withdrawal. Well he actually said he didn't think the Afghan government would "imminently collapse" after September 11. I assume by that he means the Kabul government won't immediately fall after that date. He believes that the Afghan security forces will be able to hold back the Taliban if they launch an attack on the capital. Khalilzad is an Afghan-born American with huge experience of the trials and tribulations of his country of birth but I fear his optimism is on shakey ground. The Taliban are so cock-a-hoop about Biden's decision to withdraw unconditionally all troops by September 11 that they will feel this is a gift for them to exploit as soon as the last soldier has flown out. The over-the-horizon force the US is hoping to establish will be for counter-terrorism operations, not for stopping the Taliban taking control of Kabul. The Taliban knows this and may feel sufficiently confident to have a go at taking Kabul. But one thing that makes me wonder whether Khalilzad could be right is that the Taliban are still basically a foot-soldier force. They have a few American Humvee armoured vehicles which they captured, but generally they fight with guns, rocket-propelled grenades, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers, wearing turbans and flip-flops. The Afghan government forces have armoured vehicles, artillery and combat-capable aircraft. So they should be able to withstand a Taliban attack provided they stand by their posts and keep fighting. If the US military are right, they won't last long without Anerican help. If Khalilzad is right, they will hold Kabul and keep the Taliban at bay. Let's hope the veteran Khalilzad's optimism is better founded than we fear.

Will America be great again under Biden?

America First and America will be Great Again are the catchphrases for ever linked to Donald Trump. Even now whenever he or one of his chosen politicians make speeches they unfailingly refer to their promise to "make America Great Again". But the chances are that if Joe Biden's luck continues the way it has gone so far, he could well be able to look back on his "first" four years in office and claim that under his administration the economy has boomed, jobs have rocketed and the pandemic has been finally defeated. All the signs are that unless something goes seriously wrong, the United States is on its way back to unrivalled prominence and Biden himself is shaping up to be a president on a rollercoaster. If he makes Amrica Great Again what will happen to Trump and his future political ambitions? Biden doesn't go around shouting like he did that he was returning the nation to Greatness but in his own quiet and persistent way he is making a damned good fist of it, as we say in Britain. With more than 51 per cent of the targeted population now vaccinated at least once, Biden can feel confident that by the late summer the whole country should be jabbed with one or other of the vaccines, and the more jabs there are the more the economy will open up. By 2024 if Trump does decide to stand again for the presidency, he will not have anything like the political momentum that drove him to the White House in 2016. Biden will be able to turn to him and say: "Donald, America IS great again, just look at the economy. The country no longer needs or wants you." Trump will have to start thinking of a new catchphrase to give himself a chance in 2024. Perhaps, "I can make America even greater".

So, Keir Starmer, will you keep Boris's refurbishments if you ever take over Downing St?

I am already sick of all the hypocritical whingeing going on about whether Boris Johnson spent too much on refurbishing the flat above Number 11 Downing Street and whether he arranged for a loan from a Tory donor to help pay for it. Let's get a few things straight first. This is the official London residence of the prime minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It's not Boris's personal apartment which he can sell at some huge profit after he has stopped being prime minister. It's the flat over the shop and surely, if the prime minister of the day hates the furniture and decorations etc of the residence left by his or her predecessor, shouldn't it be ok for the new leader to choose different curtains and sofas and a fancy kitchen and perhaps a better TV set, or whatever? If ever Keir Starmer becomes prime minister, won't he want to chuck out everything Boris and Carrie have done and do his own makeover? When a new president takes over in the White House there's always a big makeover. John Kennedy and his elegant wife Jacqueline spent a bunch of dollars to turn the White House into a Camelot-style residence, Bill and Hillary Clinton changed a lot, even George W Bush changed the curtains if I remember rightly. But of course with Boris it's all about the money spent. Under the rules governing British prime ministers and the Downing Street residence, they are allowed to use a grant of £30,000 to make alterations, put new carpets down etc. But Boris and his longstanding fiancee Carrie had bigger and better ideas and wanted a total makeover to make sure they had a decent home for themselves and their young son Wilfred. It looks like a Tory donor offered to make up the difference between £30,000 and whatever it was going to cost. Some reports say the final estimate was £60,000, others suggest £200,000. This should have been declared in an open and fully transparent way but it seems it wasn't. Well not straightaway. Now Boris is saying he paid or would pay the difference himself. But thanks to devilish leaking by his old friend Dominic Cummings it has now turned into a massive political scandal and Labour's leader Keir Starmer is having a field day bashing Boris whenever he opens his mouth. My only thought is this: why on earth would Boris contemplate spending so much money on a flat he is never going to own? He knew the cost would come out at some point because you can't keep something like this secret. It's all so ridiculous and it's taking up crucial political time when the whole government and opposition should be focusing on the pandemic and getting this country back to normal. It's what we Brits call a storm in a teacup.

India in desperate need of international help

India is setting global records every day for the number of Covid-19 infections. The statistics are truly shocking and the country with its population of neary 1.4 billion people is running out of oxygen supplies to save lives. People are dying by the thousand because they literally have no oxygen in their lungs to breathe. Both the US and Britain have offered assistance with equipment and personnel but India has made no call for international help. They are benefiting from the so-called Covax global vaccines fund. But clearly it's not enough to save India from further catastrophe. If there had been a massive earthquake killing tens of thousands and destroying vast numbers of buildings would not the world be rushing to help? It's difficult to see why the Indian government has not put out a global appeal for help. Except that it takes political courage and leadership to admit total failure and admit to other nations that it needs to be rescued. The Indian government made poor decisions over lockdown and failed to enforce proper social distancing rules. Many images from India over recent weeks have shown huge gatherings of people. Politics needs to be put to one side and the world should pour in help. Oxygen supplies being the key thing required and more vaccines. Both the US and Britain have large vaccine stocks, more than they need because of astute early ordering. But this is a pandemic and it's in everyone's interests for every country to be helped to eradicate this terrible disease. India must now be a priority for all of us. The daily reports from New Delhi are heartrending, and we know little of what is going on in other parts of this desperate country. As we here in the UK and also in the US are beginning to return to a sort of normality one can only feel guilt that in another part of the world - one with such close ties to this country - people are dying for lack of help, lack of oxygen and lack of vaccines.

Is Boris in big trouble?

The bitter row building up between Boris Johnson and his erstwhile chief adviser Dominic Cummings is not for the fainthearted. It's schadenfreude at its worst. Cummings was effectively booted out from his job at Number 10 Downing Street because his Machiavellian way of doing business was scaring the hell out of everyone, includng Boris, and he had to go before everyone had a nervous breadown. But Boris realised Cummings knew where all the bodies were buried. So it was a calculated risk. Then the story broke on the BBC about Boris promising Sir James Dyson, inventor of the baglass vacuum cleaner and a myriad other high-tech stuff, to make sure his company, headquartered in Singapore, didn't have to pay extra tax if he returned to the UK to build oxygen ventilator equipment for the Covid crisis. It made headlines because the way it was reported made it look very dodgy: Dyson ringing and emailing Boris personally to get him to sort out his tax problem with the Treasury rather than go through the proper channels. Dyson is a massive British success story and it's hardly surprising he knows Boris's phone number and chose to ask the prime minister for help rather than write a long letter to the Treasury civil service which would probably not have been answered for weeks. I really don't think it's a big deal. But the story is all about alleged Conservative sleaze and Boris's personal integrity or lack of it. Then came the bombshell. Boris asked for a leak inquiry into who leaked his emails to and from Dyson to the BBC but instead of waiting for the result he seemingly authorised one of his press flunkies to brief the newspapers that Cummings was the leaker. Bang! Out came Cummings and published a massive blog denying he was the leaker but was the holder of a pile of scandals which he was ready to spill out to destroy his former boss, including some dodgy dealing about funding the £60,000 makeover at the prime minister's flat in Downing Street. More ammunition for the Labour leader Keir Starmer to bash Boris and call for all kinds of public inquiries. The only sleaze as far as I can see is the dreadful revenge allegations emerging from Cummings who, it has to be said, is not the most popular man in Britain following his alleged breach of the first Covid lockdown when he drove all the way up north to visit his parents and then took a trip to some castle tourist spot, allegedly to check his eyes to make sure it was safe for him to drive back to London. Yeah, right. Anyway Cummings is now raging with revenge and God knows what else he has up his sleeve. All very unpleasant and undignified. Boris must feel he has opened up a can of very long, slimey worms.

Joe Biden is coming to St Ives

For his first trip abroad since becoming president Joe Biden has decided to stay in a gorgeous hotel overlooking a bay near St Ives in Cornwall. I don't blame him. It's a fabulous spot. OK he's coming for work and won't be dabbling his feet in the water. The Secret Service wouldn't allow him to anyway in case his toes get chewed by one of those delicious crabs they have in Cornwall. The hotel is where the G7 leaders will be meeting in June to try and save the world. Biden has done pretty well so far and this will be the first occasion for him to mix and mingle with the leaders of Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. When Donald Trump was the president these occasions were fraught with anxiety and trepidation and bewilderment and amazement and anticipation and relief (when he left). With Biden it's going to be terribly matey and back-slapping and smiles and, of course, unanimity. Everyone will sign the final statement and there will be promises of a new era of consensus. With so much bonhomie and unity it will mark an historic change from the Trump days. Less interesting for the media, but welcome for the leaders of the developed world who spent four years on tenterhooks. I don't think the room will go quiet and deferential when Biden makes his first entrance, it will be more, hey Joe, good to see you. But for all our sakes that's perhaps the way it should be. As for the location, St Ives is a wonderful harbour town that's all lit up at night. The fish and crab and clotted cream are exceptional. I hope Biden and co get fish and chips followed by sticky toffee pudding and a blob of clotted creamon on top. That'll get them all happy and in the mood. On the last day they could all walk on the sandy beach without their shoes on. It would be a great picture if nothing else.

Syria fires a dodgy missile against Israel

Everyone thought Syria had launched a missile deep into Israel aiming at the secret nuclear facility at Dimona. It was such a potentially serious attack, even though the missile missed, Israel launched a series of attacks including hitting the Syrian site from where the missile had been launched. For several hours it was a big story with potential apocalyptic headlines. But then came the other explanation which it seems both Israel and the United States eventually believed was the accurate version of the incident. According to General Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command and not a man to mince words, it was all a mistake, a case of total incompetence by a Syrian air-defence missile battery unit. Israel had struck at a number of Syrian sites earlier, something which happens on a reasonably regular basis, and the Syrian battery unit must have pressed all sorts of buttons and suddenly anti-aircraft missiles were flying off in all directions and one of them plummeted to the earth inside Israel not a million miles away from Dimona, where Israel "allegedly" makes nuclear bombs. McKenzie was all reassuring when he was asked about the "Syrian attack" by someone on the Senate armed services committee. Don't worry, he said, it wasn't an attack at all. Well if I was working at Dimona and I saw a large explosion in the distance I'm sure I would think an attack had been launched, so it was hardly surprising Israeli fighter jets were scrambled within minutes. Presumably that unfortunate Syrian missile battery is no more. Two lessons are learned from this incident: first, the US and Israel must be electronically watching everything that moves and listening to every word spoken at these Syrian sites to enable General McKenzie to be so definitive when questioned some hours later; and second, it's a reminder that an error or miscalculation or stupidity can lead to war. Incompetence sounds faintly reassuring in this case but what if by sheer bad luck on the part of the panicking Syrian battery commander, the missile had somehow managed to reach Dimona and caused serious damage and/or deaths? Sometimes incompetence can make you shudder.

Nancy Pelosi's excruciating comment after George Floyd murder conviction

The US Speaker of the House is normally pretty deft with her public comments. But after the conviction of former police officer Derek Chauvin of the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis Nancy Pelosi made one of the most excruciatingly ridiculous statements I have ever heard from a politician. She actually thanked the dead man for sacrificing his life for the cause of justice. Floyd was killed by a police officer who knelt with all his weight on his neck for more than nine minutes and ignored his gasping cries that he couldn't breathe. Floyd was not sacrificing his life for some greater cause. He was being slowly strangled and died as a result. The police officer was seemingly unmoved by his method of restraining the arrested man beneath his knee. So no sacrifice, Nancy Pelosi. The man was brutally murdered. So justice has been done because Chauvin has been found guilty on three counts and will probably serve the rest of his life in jail. It is true that Floyd's name will live on as a reminder of the appalling racism that exists in the US and the conviction of Chauvin is proof that justice can be done in these cases which Joe Biden said was too rare. But I fear Floyd's death will not go down in history as the moment when black Americans could start to feel safer from those white police officers who are intuitively racist and therefore open fire or use unlawful physical arresting techniques. But maybe, just maybe, no one being arrested, black or white, in the future, will lose his or her life by having a police officer kneeling on their neck.

Russian build-up on Ukraine border now at critical stage

By the EU's estimation there are about 150,000 Russian troops now on the border with eastern Ukraine and in the annexed Crimean peninsula. That's a pincer movement in the making. Could Vladimir Putin seriously be considering full-scale invasion? The Pentagon has been wary of putting numbers on the troops on the border, although I'm not quite sure why, but officials have been expressing concern for some time. Does that mean that the US and Nato have a plan all set to act or react if Russia does invade Ukraine? Whatever is going on in the top levels of the Pentagon and in Putin's mind in the Kremlin, we seem to have reached a critical point. With so many troops, tanks and armoured vehicles at his disposal it's as if Putin is just wating for an excuse to send them over the border. Any incident in eastern Ukraine which he can claim has put the lives of Russian nationals there at risk and he will give the order. As the director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant-General Scott Berrier, told the Senate intelligence committee during a hearing on world threats: "They (the Russians) have placed themselves in a posture where it has given them options." That's a statement riddled with menacing possibilities. Also, the US ambassador to Russia has mysteriously returned to Washington, on the recommendation of Sergey Lavrov, the lugubrious Russian foreign minister which also sounds faintly sinister. Could this be the week when Putin finally makes up his mind whether to order his troops home after completing their "training exercise" or to give the order to invade? I still think it's more bluster than a genuine invasion intention, especially with the prospect of getting a summit with Joe Biden in the near future. Surely he won't want to spoil that possibility, unless he has given up on the US and no longer cares or worries about what Washington might do. The US has enforced so many sanctions against individuals and Russian companies that a few more could be met with a shrug of the shoulders. As I have written before, Putin might come to his senses only if his own wealth assets are targeted. The US hasn't dared to do that yet. But an invasion of Ukraine, for whatever excuse, might just tip the balance. Putin's millions frozen or sequestered? That really would make Putin sit up and take notice.

Michelle Obama and George W are mates

First of all I'm a huge fan of Michelle Obama. She's inspiring, fabulously articulate and intelligent and would make a brilliant president of the United States. But I hope she never stands because she deserves a life without facing extremist right-wing hatred and racism. My estimation of her has gone up a notch by reading today about her friendship with George W Bush. It somehow seems so unlikely but it's true. They like each other a lot, joke and laugh together and are good friends, mostly brought about by the fact that they are constantly sat next to each other at official functions, he as former president and she as former First Lady. They got chatting and as George W has admitted, she liked his sense of humour and that was good enough for him to like her back. I think it's brilliant. George W had his faults when president, big time, especially the decision to go to war in Iraq which has had negative consequences that have so far lasted 18 years. But he made a terrific speech after 9/11 and his axis of evil declaration - Iraq, Iran and North Korea - wasn't far wrong at the time and isn't far wrong today, although Iraq, without Saddam Hussein, has been taken off the list. What is refreshing about the friendship between George W and Michelle is that it shows two people from opposite sides of the politicaL spectrum can find common ground and enjoy each other's company and not worry or even think about the differences and how it might be seen by the general public. If only their friendship could be echoed throughout Congress and bring to an end the many brutal divisions between Republicans and Democrats. I know this is fantasy stuff but a bit more friendship and respect and appreciation and far less hostility and anger and bitterness in Congress could go a helluva long way towards uniting a country that has been riven with division and rivalry for too long.

The FedEx shooter was licensed to kill

You only have to read the headlines in the American press to know what underlies the mass shooting at the FedEx warehouse in Indianapolis. The gunman had bought two assault rifles legally. Legally!! He had just walked into a gunshop and presumably pointed to the assault rifle he fancied and said he would have two please. Certainly, sir, the gunshop owner would have replied. And what sort of ammunition would like and how many? The owner of the shop might have even passed comment on the purchase. "Good rifle that. Excellent choice." And away he goes and, allegedly, kills eight people and wounds many others. The alleged shooter was still a teenager. Nineteen years old. It beggars belief that here we are a quarter of a way through 2021, 230 years after the Second Amendment of the US constitution was enshrined in law, allowing citizens to carry guns, and all Americans, except those certified as mentally deranged, can buy a military-style assault weapon on any day of the week they choose and walk off into the sunset without a single person, let alone the gunshop owner, saying: "Hey wait a minute what do you want that for, or I'm calling the police, or no you can't buy it." What I tire of hearing after yet anothing mass shooting in the United States is the president declaring that something must be done to stop these terrible shootings and yet has no courage to do anything meaningful about it. Because it's the sacrosanct Second Amendment. Doesn't anyone think for a moment that perhaps things were probably a bit different in 1791 when the amendment became law and that maybe the fathers of the US constitution would be turning over in their graves in anger and frustration that what they thought was right and proper then absolutely isn't today more than two centuries later. Whatever Joe Biden does won't be enough and there will be more shootings. Tragic!

Farewell to Afghanistan - the end of an era

MY PIECE FOR THE TIMES TODAY: Standing on the edge of one of America’s myriad isolated military bases in Afghanistan, called Combat Outpost Senjaray, carved high up on a rocky hill, a US Army major pointed down towards Taliban territory across the other side of the road half a mile or so away. Beside him in this crow’s nest was Robert Gates, US defence secretary, on a two-day, fact-finding visit to Afghanistan. It was September, 2010. The US-led war with the Taliban had been going for nearly nine years. Gates was optimistic that the strategy was working. Victory was not a word he ever used but he was confident, even there in Kandahar province, the spiritual home of the Taliban, along with neighbouring Helmand, that the war was going in the right direction. But the army major had a message for his esteemed visitor. I stood a few paces behind the army officer, Major Nicholas Stout, a company commander of the 502nd Infantry Regiment 101st Airborne Division. He turned to Gates and said: “There’s a school down in the town which we’ve reopened and secured. I don’t want to see on the television in the years ahead that that school is in flames.” The Pir Mohammed school had been severely damaged and booby-trapped with improvised explosive devices by the Taliban when it was taken over by the 502nd. Some of the major’s men were killed by Taliban snipers as they worked to restore the school for the local children. For Major Stott’s regiment and for numerous other military units, American, British and coalition forces, rebuilding schools destroyed by the education-hating Taliban became one of the most important symbols of achievement. It wasn’t the original reason for sending troops to Afghanistan after the 9/11 al-Qaeda terrorist attacks in the US. But as the war ground on, school-building – nation-building – became the moral justification for fighting the Taliban. If the schools and new health clinics and freedom for Afghan women could be protected, then the appalling sacrifices – 2,400 dead American troops and 454 British – had some meaning. Gates was one of eight US defence secretaries who went back and forth to Afghanistan over 20 years of war, the longest in America’s history, each coming away with a hopeful message but little else. The strategy of pushing the Taliban out of their strongholds and protecting the Afghan people had its merits but it was never going to bring military victory. Throughout the war, as the casualty toll rose, every serviceman and woman sent to serve their country asked themselves the same questions. “Why are we here, is it worth it?” General Jack Keane, vice chief of staff of the US Army in the first two years of the war, said that over the two decades the US and coalition troops had prevented al-Qaeda from enjoying safe haven in Afghanistan to plot further terrorist attacks. “And thousands of al-Qaeda were killed. So, yes, it was worth it, there was retribution and no other attacks [in the US],” he told The Times. “But I was a platoon and company commander in Vietnam [58,000 US troops died in 11 years] and when I saw what was achieved getting squandered in the end due to lack of political will and then the enemy taking over the country, that was hard to take,” he said. The same fate, he fears, will befall Afghanistan. Once all US troops had left, the war would carry on without them and the Taliban would never seek a peaceful solution with the Kabul government. “The decision to unconditionally withdraw all US troops by September 11 without a ceasefire or a binding peace agreement and no commitment by the Taliban to deny sanctuary to al-Qaeda was reckless,” he said. For the families of those killed in the war and for the tens of thousands who were wounded – more than 20,000 Americans, many of them losing limbs – the ending of the military mission in Afghanistan would be “an emotional and difficult moment”, Lieutenant-General David Barno, a former US forces commander in Afghanistan (2003-2005), told The Times. “Those in the military who have lost comrades will have mixed feelings,” he said. US commanders told the Biden administration they thought a presence of 4,500 soldiers would be necessary for a continuing counter-terrorism role in Afghanistan. There is a highly classified secret base in Afghanistan from where US special operations troops act against al-Qaeda and Taliban movements across the border from the safe sanctuary of Pakistan. This base will now close. Keane said the US had troops in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and in east Africa for the very same reason that forces were still in Afghanistan after 9/11. “To prevent jihadists from establishing sanctuaries for plots against the US,” he said. “If we had 3,000-5,000 troops in Afghanistan that would be a modest contribution to avoid the risk of a terrorist sanctuary returning to Afghanistan,” he said. “If the Taliban take over in Afghanistan that will be profoundly disappointing for our troops who served there,” Keane said. Postscript: the Pir Mohammed school stayed open but only because of daily neighbourhood patrols by US soldiers. Its future may now be less certain.

The future world looks bleak

I've reread the Global Trends report published this week by the US intelligence services - there are 18 of them now with the additional agency set up by the new Space Command - and it makes dire reading. The trends are looking alarming and seemingly unpreventable, such as the unfreezing of the Arctic, the rise and rise of China, the desperation of migration, the volatility of many of the world's governments, the increasing disillusion of people who feel they are neglected and forgotten and the continuing threat posed by jihadists everywhere. If ever governments need to work together to help the planet it's now and over the next decade. But there is no real sign of a cooperative spirit amongst the major powers. China wants to be the dominant power, militarily, ecnomically and culturally, and cares not a jot for anyone else, Russia seems to be getting more dangerous every week, Britain has left the European Union and thus has no voice left worth listening to, let alone being listened to, Germany is coming to the end of the Angela Merkel era and handing over to a non-entity, France has gone mad under Macron, the United States is desperately trying to regain some of its reputation in the world after being tarnished by the Trump administration, war between Israel and Iran is less and less theoreticaL, and there is no voice of wisdom out there to calm things down. I don't think the Pope, as wise and thoughtful as he is, is the man to bring the world to its senses and Antonio Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, is a good man but no one listens to the UN anymore. There are good people around who could and should have influence to help make the world a better and safer place. Perhaps John Kerry, Biden's climate czar who has such huge experience as a travelling diplomat and is respected, even in Beijing. But one man won't save the planet from a rapidly changing climate. The US intelligence services' Global Trends report which looks ahead to 2040 was possibly the most pessimistic ever written but unfortunately was also realistic. In 2008, the Global Trends report warned that a worldwide pandemic originating in East Asia was likely, and look what happened with that prediction. Did the world listen, was the world prepared? It's difficult to raise a smile.

Biden didn't listen to his military advisers

In the end it's always the president's decision. So when Joe Biden heard his top military advisers urging him not to pull out the remaining troops in Afghanistan until the Taliban had demonstrated they could be trusted to stick to the agreements reached in Qatar, he had already made up his mind. He had heard the "conditions-based" argument so many times before and judged that if he continued to adhere to this military plea nothing would ever change. So, despite appeals from General Mark Milley, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, General Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command, and General Scott Miller, commander of US forces in Afghanistan, Biden said enough was enough. He wanted them all out starting on May 1 and finishing by September 11, 20 years to the day since 9/11. Milley and co would have all had the same thought, although of course not expressed in so many words to Biden. The Taliban would be cock-a-hoop. The Taliban had won. The Taliban had defeated the US, just like they did the Russian army in the 1980s. It must have been a bitter moment. But let's look at it from Biden's point of view. And by the way, very much from the point of view of the two Big Guns in Biden's administration - Antony Blinken, secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser. The military had had their way for two decades without succeeding, draining the treasury coffers of $2 trillion dollars. The war must come to an end. The bizarre thing is that Biden had exactly the same view as Donald Trump. His predecessor said he wanted all US troops out of Afghanistan and the Qatar deal that produced the May 1 timetable was a direct consequence of Trump's "bring them home" policy. But even he agreed with his military chaps that the final phase of the pull-out would depend on conditions on the ground. Biden abandoned that bit. He went further than Trump, he wanted an unconditional withdrawal. Oh my, were the Taliban happy! They won't mind that they have to wait an extra few months before all US troops have gone. They'd waited 20 years quite happily. My view? Yes, it is time for the US and coalition mission in Afghanistan to be brought to an end. No question. The future is all about China and Russia, not thousands of black-turbaned, flip-flop-wearing insurgency fighters. But to order a withdrawal of the remaining 2,500 US troops without first getting a total ceasefire established and a commitment by the Taliban to lay down their arms is nothing short of disastrous. Not for us in the West but for the long-suffering Afghan people.

Apocalypse scenarios are rising

The Pentagon I am sure has an apocalyse-prediction department and it will be pretty busy right now. There are currently at least four apocalypse scenarios all of which could lead to some form of conflagration. They are the following: 1.Russia invades Ukraine despite warnings from the US and Nato, leading to multiple casualties and brutal images of suppression. The US and the alliance hesitates but after a serious misunderstanding, alliance fighter jets clash with Russian fighter jets and Russian pilots are killed. In retaliation, Russia fires missiles at a US troop base in Poland. The conflict becomes grave until common sense intervenes and Russia and alliance pull back from full-scale conventional war. But Ukraine is occupied by Russian troops and tanks. 2. China invades Taiwan with mass naval, air and amphibious forces. In support of Taiwan, US Navy warships and carrier-borne fighters clash with Chinese PLA. China fires ballistic missiles at US base in Guam and US retaliates with missile launch against Chinese coastal missile defences and sinks a couple of Chinese coast guard militia vessels. None of which prevents China from seizing control of Taiwan. Brief war between China and US ends, but Taiwan's independence is lost for ever. Beijing triumphant. 3. North Korea trebles its nuclear warhead stocks and doubles its long-range ballistic missiles. After two years of increasing tension between Pyongyang and Washington, Kim Jong-un orders a conventional ballistic missile strike on Guam and threatens to launch nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles at the US if America strikes back. 4. Israel launches a mass bombing raid on Iran's Natanz uranium-enrichment plant. Iran responds with a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and Hezbollah joins in with a huge artillery and rocket attack on Israel from Lebanon. Israel invades Lebanon. The US tries to intervene but Israel refuses to row back, and Iran proxy forces mount attacks across the Middle East. It's that sort of world we live in, never mind the bl.... pandemic!

Did US defence chief know about Israel's attack on Iran nuclear plant?

Timing is everything. Lloyd Austin, US defence secretary, arrives in Israel for official talks with his Israeli counterpart and with Bibi Netanyahu, the prime minister, literally within hours of Mossad, the country's secret service, having carried out a a super-clandestine attack on Iran's nuclear plant at Natanz. If Austin didn't know about it before he arrived, then it must have been seriously embarrassing for him, the big defence chief flying in ignorant of a major coup by the country hosting his visit. During his press conference, Austin with Netanyahu by his side, made no reference to the Natanz attack which crippled the uranium-enrichment production line with a mighty explosion. So, not a cyber attack as most newspapers reported but an inside-job strike that caused a massive crater. How Mossad managed to carry it out we will probably never know. But you can bet that the poor Pentagon correspondents travelling with Austin on his trip will have got absolutely nothing in their sessions with him. I have been on many of these trips and I know from experience that sometimes it's better to be back home with your phone and ringing contacts than it is to be sitting on the same plane as the Pentagon boss and getting briefed. You get zero insight into the real story, if there is a real story. So any questions by the reporters about what Austin knew before the Natanz attack and whether he could confirm that Israel had carried out the attack will have been met with zilch. The only comments would have been about the solid alliance with Israel and the threat posed by Iran. But nothing about the Mossad attack. It's possible, probable, that Austin knew absoutely nothing about the Natanz plot before it happened because the Israelis tend to keep these things close to their chest for fear of leaks and just because it makes operational sense. Even if he was not in the know, Austin I am sure will have played the game astutely and would have kept to the script written by his advisers for when he met Netanyahu and the Israeli defence minister Benny Gantz. The advice would probably have been, "don't mention Mossad". Better not to ask the question when you know the answer already but also know that Israel never confirms or denies any military action anywhere, not even to the American defence secretary.

White police officer versus black US army officer!

First, a simple story of everyday traffic control in the town of Windsor in Virginia, USA. A smart black 4x4 car gets pulled over by two traffic police officers for failing to display a rear registration plate. What should have happened: the two police officers should have spoken to the driver in a polite fashion and pointed out that there was no registration plate at the back. The driver would then have explained that he had a temporary number plate which could be seen lying on the rear shelf of the car. The driver would have explained the reason for this and informed the two offcers that he had it in hand to get a proper registration plate fitted within a few days and that it was on order. The police officers would then have said "Ok, sir, but actually your temporary plate is not very visible which was why we pulled you over, so I think while you are waiting for the proper plate to be fitted you should have a much better temporary plate so that you don't have to get pulled over again. Now you have a nice day, sir". What actually happened: The lead police officer, a big white bloke with a pistol in his right hand pointing at the driver orders him to get out of the car in a loud voice. The driver keeps both his hands visible by placing them on or close to the open window and asks why he has been stopped. The white police officer then shouts much more loudly at the driver and orders him again and again to get out of the car. The driver questions what he has done wrong and promptly gets pepper-sprayed in the face. Eventually after admitting he is scared to get out of the car for fear of what the police officer might do to him - the officer tells him he is right to be scared - he slowly climbs out with his hands visible at all times. He is then roughly grabbed and ordered to the ground where he is handcuffed and taken away to the police station where he is released without charge. The driver was a black US Army lieutenant in combat fatigues. He is now suing the police officer and his white fellow officer. Only one questions has to be asked. Had the driver been a white US Army lieutenant would he have received the same treatment?

Iran continues to flout 2015 nuclear deal

It's hardly surprising that the US is worried that Iran isn't that serious about restarting negotiations on the much-abused 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran described the first round of indirect talks - ie not directly with the US - as constructive which sounded reasonably hopeful. But then Ayatalloha Hassan Rouhani, the president, went off and officially inaugurated a new advanced centrifuge system at Natanz nuclear facility that will boost the chances of enriching uranium to the required 90 per cent level needed to have weapons-grade material for a bomb. It's obvious what game the Iranian president is playing. Like the Taliban in Afghanistan stepping up killings to put maximum pressure on the US and Kabul government to get what they want politically, so Tehran is demonstrating it has the technology to make a nuclear bomb to pile the pressure on Washington, even while claiming all the activity at Natanz is about peaceful, civilian nuclear power. I think most people believed that to be untrue several decades ago. Certainly the Americans have never believed it, and definitely Israel has never believed it. According to the Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran could have built a nuclear bomb but he has always insisted that to do so would be in violation of Islam, and being the chief cleric in the country he says it is forbidden. The reason why it's banned is because under the rules of the religion it is wrong to produce weapons that could kill millions of people. So why are the US and Israel so convinced this is hogwash? Well, it's simple. Iran has attempted to develop its nuclear programme clandestinely, it has already enriched uranium beyond the level required for civilian nuclear power, and with all the oil it has the country doesn't need nuclear power. The launching of the new gas centrifuges at Natanz is the latest brinkmanship step to put Iran in a good position to pressurise the Biden administration to start lifting sanctions. Biden has already made clear that he is not going to just lift all the sanctions if a revised deal can be negotiated. Right now it looks like Tehran wants to push ahead as rapidly as possible with its uranium-enrichment to make it more difficult for the US to reenter the 2015 nuclear-deal family without offering extensive relief on sanctions.

Book your foreign holiday but dream on about actually going

The Boris Johnson government's predictions about booking foreign holidays is getting more and more like Alice in Wonderland. The latest version of the can-you-can't-you, will-you-won't-you, should-you-shouldn't you plan to go on holiday this summer is about as straightforward as a bend in the road. Yes it is possible that you can start to plan a holiday but you shouldn't really truthfully expect to actually go on it. What?! The UK government had been expected to announce this week its much-heralded traffic light system which would reveal to us humble folk which countries have been categorised as safe to visit and which definitely not. So green for go and red for no way. That would have been terrifically helpful while browsing through the brochures. I say, let's go to Italy, two weeeks in Tuscany. No, can't be done. Italy is red. How about Malta? Malta is green, so off you go. You see how easy it would be, although not every mortal soul can grab a hotel room in Malta presumably. But no traffic light system was announced. All we got was a hint that it might be possible to go to a beach overseas in the summer but for any degree of certainty we all have to wait until the first week in May now to find out whether our chosen location is green, red or amber. There are rumours that the ony countries that will be given the green light will be Malta and Israel. So no France or Italy or Spain or the US. Green means you can visit a country without having to spend 10 days in quarantine locked away in some ghastly govenment-approved hotel on return, but will still require Covid tests before leaving and before returning. My answer to that is, what the hell is the vaccination programme all about if not to make you relatively immune from getting Covid. So if you have had your two doses why can't you get on a plane and go the hell anywhere. No wonder one of the big travel companies has announced today that it's not going to take any bookings until late June. What's the point when there is so much uncertainty about whether a country is going to be designated green, amber or red? So just remember the advice of the government: book your holidays now but dream on.

Moscow likens eastern Ukraine to Srebrenica!

The Russian troop and tank build-up on the Ukrainian border is continuing and still no one really knows what Vladimir Putin has in mind. Is he plotting an invasion, just sabre-rattling or engaging in an alarmist training exercise to put the frigteners on the Kiev/Kyiv government? Suddenly thanks to a senior Russian official there is a glimmer of light about what this is all about and it's bizarre. Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of Russia's presidential administration, for which read, Kremlin, has indicated Moscow is worried about a Srebrenica situation occurring in eastern Ukraine. Srebrenica, the name for ever assciated with the massacre of 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys by the Serb army in the ethnic-cleansing Balkan war in July 1995. Kozak suggests that Russian nationals in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine are being threatened and could need rescuing. It's the classic justification for a Russian invasion. It has been used before, as in the case of the two provinces in Georgia which Russian troops were sent to occupy to protect nationals in 2008. Putin will be making careful calculations. There is no evidence of any sort of massacre intent against Russians living in Donbass, although I have no doubt there is ill-feeling between Russians and Ukrainians in an area where there has been a de facto war going on for years. The reference to Srebrenica is deliberately provocative. With the world, especially the US, watching, I doubt Putin will pick this moment to mount a huge challenge to Joe Biden. But if there is even a hint of Russians in Donbass being attacked/killed by Ukrainian government forces, Putin could launch some military operation. Sounds like some heavyweight diplomatic efforts are required. Whether Putin listens or not depends on the support he thinks he has from the Putin-wary/weary Russian population. I'd say it's 60-40 against a Russian invasion.

All's quiet on the Biden front

Joe Biden has been president for 77 days, and by comparison with Donald Trump's rumbustuous first few weeks in office, it has been remarkably quiet and calm. By that I mean, the actual behind-doors business in the White House has been free of controversy, drama, wild publicity, scandal, sackings and general uproar. As far as we know. This is because nothing has emerged from inside the White House so far under Biden to suggest anything other than a highly professional, consensual, pragmatic environment in which four-letter words are not used or, indeed, not needed. No one can accuse Biden of doing nothing in his first 77 days. He has been as busy as a bumble bee, dishing out huge sums of money to prop up the economy and boost jobs and livelihoods and has cracked on with the vaccination programme like a man possessed. He has even got indirect talks going with Iran to try and sort out the nuclear deal impasse. The only faltering step has been over immigration and the indecision about what to do with the rush of people turning up at the Mexican border with terrible tales of woe and destitution back home. For goodness sake, there isn't even a book written yet about the inside story of Biden's presidency, successes, failures, rows, backbiting etc. No, all is quiet. And above all, as an article in The New York Times today reports, there have been no leaks. Either everyone working in the Biden administration is doing so happily and loyally or the White House chief of staff has warned that anyone who leaks will be sacked instantly. I suspect the former is the case. For the moment, the decisions being taken are sensible and are avoiding personality clashes between the big departments. Thus, the big cheeses - Antony Blinken (State), Lloyd Austin (Pentagon), Jake Sullivan (National Security), Ron Klain (chief of staff), Janet Yellen (Treasury) and William Burns (CIA), are all bosom pals and getting on like the friendliest of neighbours. By now, with Trump in charge, the first book on the horrors of his administration, was already half-way written. Fire and Fury by Michael Wolff, the inside story of the chaotic first year, was published in January 2018. Right now, under Biden, a man who knows the inside-out of the White House after eight years as vice president, I can't see any officials, let alone cabinet members, storming off in a huff after a stand-up row with Joe. It's all nicey nicey. Let's hope it stays that way. It might be boring for my fellow reporters in Washington, desperate for drama, but it makes for a much more adult way of doing business.

Covid passports are surely a must!

When Tory MPs get together and whinge on about human rights and privacy risks if the government goes ahead with vaccine passports, you do wonder what sort of world they live in. They say passports will be discriminatory, unfair and an intrusion into privacy rights. What total nonsense. We're not living in a normal world right now. We're living in a Covid world and as a consequence every measure that can be taken to ease our way back to normal life, or a more normal life, then I'm for it. What is wrong with turning up at Heathrow airport or wherever and showing your ordinary and Covid passports to the airline check-in desk before they let you through. Personally I would feel a helluva lot more confident and relaxed if I knew that everyone on board had either been vaccinated or at last tested negative. The most important thing right now is for every adult to get vaccinated. That's the only way finally to get rid of this virus. If someone doesn't want to get vaccinated, then he or she doesn't get a vaccine passport and can't go on holiday abroad or anywhere else for that matter. It's that simple. It's not being dictatorial, it's just eminently sensible health-driven common sense. While there are people refusing or not bothering to get jabbed, the virus will be the winner and will surge around looking for more victims. So let's have the vaccine passport or certificate or app or some sort of document so that we can be whisked through airport controls onto the plane for sunny beach weather. And likewise, the other end. Doesn't that make sense? So, you Tory MPs who seem to think a vaccine passport is the end of the world, it's time to get real. This is a dfferent world we live in and different measures are needed to grab a slice of normality once again.

Suez unplugged is great news for world's morale

If ever there was an event which gave the world a much-needed boost and hope for the future it was the unblocking of the Suez Canal. The mighty container ship, Ever Given, forced the world to hold its breath for six days. And then, like a blocked drain that suddenly becomes unplugged, the Canal was free and flowing as normal. The pandemic is still with us and still causing personal and economic mayhem around the world but after more than a year of being totally under virus siege, things are beginning to move again, there is an economic flow which we haven't seen for 12 months. The symbolism is too stark not to draw a comparison with the blocked Suez. For older generation people the Suez Canal has always been associated with that disastrous year of 1956 when Britain, without the help of the United States, decided to go ahead with a military adventure to seize the Canal after the nationalisation takeover by President Nasser of Egypt. Israeli armed forces had invaded Egypt and were soon supported militarily by France and then Britain, with the US kept in the dark. It was a fiasco. Nasser won the day and Israel, France and Britain had to withdraw their forces. But today, thanks to the Ever Given, Suez will be associated with the six-day blockage and the growing sense of helplessness as tug boats and diggers failed to move the container ship straddled across the Canal. The Suez Canal has a unique place in history for many reasons. But as the second year of the coronavirus pandemic gets underway, let us hope that as the Canal flows freely once more, the pandemic will also stop blocking us from leading a normal life.

The vagaries of the Covid-19 vaccine programme

The US has reached a spectacular milestone: 100 million people vaccinated against Covid-19. Still a long way to go but that means more than 30 per cent of the population have had the jab. And as a direct consequence, companies are telling their employees to return to work, and thus the economy is beginning to spiral upwards. If there was ever an argument needed for a successful vaccination programme to boost an economy driven into the ground by the pandemic, then here it is. The US is bouncing back in rapid fashion. With so many people returning to work, the federal government's furlough scheme for propping up jobs can be phased out. All of which makes it extraordinary that Europe has failed so abysmally to follow suit. The 27 countries of the EU are way behind, still struggling to vaccinate everyone, still arguing about the efficacy and safety of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and still demoralised by a new surge in infection cases. And still presumably being buried in debt to keep economically afloat. The UK, like the US, has been bold and decisive and vaccine-grabbing and is coming out of the shadows of the virus and plotting a gradual return to normality and a hoped-for booming economy. We don't yet know whether the huge debts can be paid off quickly or whether we are all going to be stuck in a financial mess for a decade or two. But judging by the way the US economy is going right now, with 916,000 jobs created last month, there is every reason to be optimistic that the UK will enjoy the same benefits. What about Europe? France, Italy, Germany and others are still in a precarious state, and largely due to incompetent, dilatory, hesitant, visionless, backbiting leadership. Historians will be damning in their judgments. Far too many people will have died because of poor political leadership. In every country in the world. That includes the UK and the US where there have also been tragic failures and an appalling loss of life. But perhaps especially in Europe, poor decision-making has led to an unforgiveably slow vaccination programme.

Is Putin about to attack Ukraine?

While the world remains beset with coronavirus, Vladimir Putin seems to be sneakily up to no good. Thousands of troops and tanks and armoured vehicles have been sent to the border with Ukraine and it doesn't look like an exercise. Is Putin planning a military offensive and, if so, what will Biden and Nato do about it? The phone has been ringing between Washington and Kyev and between Washington and Moscow. Austin Lloyd, US defence secretary, General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Antony Blinken, secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, have all been on the phone calling their counterparts and basically asking the same question. What the hell is going on? Milley spoke to General Gerasimov, the Russian military chief, an old stager, and, according to the Pentagon, the two men discussed a series of topics of mutual interest. Hahaha. As I said, Milley demanded to know what Gerasimov was playing at. Gerasimov no doubt tried to indicate that it was just routine manouevres but no one will be fooled by that. Now Joe Biden has decided that he should also get in on the act and he phoned the Ukrainian president this morning, Volodymyr Zelensky. No dout to tell him that the US was firmly behind him and was watching the situation very closely. But it's what happens next that's important. The US and Nato are not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, so apart from heavy phone calls and talk of more sanctions against individual Russian military types and selling more arms to Ukraine, it's difficult to see what Biden can do. After all, Nato did nothing - apart from sanctions - when Putin annexed Crimea, and did nothng - apart from sanctions - when Putin took over two provinces in Georgia. So if the Russian troops cross the border and the tanks start to roll over the frontier, will Biden and Nato rush to Ukraine's rescue? No. Putin will be counting on that. But then again you never know with Putin. He might pull back at the last moment and pretend it was all a storm in a teacup. But he will know that the newish US president will have lost some sleep over Moscow's dangerous game-playing and that will be a satisfactory outcome for the Russian president who likes to throw his weight around.

How can Iran be persuaded to deal with Biden?

Joe Biden has enough on his plate with the pandemic, the vaccination programme, the rising immigration problem at the Mexico border, the approaching deadline on the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and his dog biting people in the White House. But somehow Iran has got to get sorted. Imminent presidential elections in Iran means there's a very real deadline to meet to persuade the current regime in Tehran to reopen negotiations/discussions on the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran is not talking to the Biden administration at the moment but various offers have emerged from the current Iranian leadership which are obviously unacceptable. Such as "lift all sanctions and then we'll talk about our (peaceful, civilian) nuclear programme". Their words, my brackets. That's not going to happen. But it seems like Biden is thinking about the possibility of lifting a very small number of sanctions just to encourage Tehran to stop enriching uranium beyond the 20 per cent they have already achieved. Tehran, for undestandable reasons I think, are saying, "Well Trump absconded from the deal, so it's up to you, Washington, to come up with something enticing to make us all happy again". Lifting every sanction ain't going to happen but it probably is time for Biden to offer something, although the way Iran has been flagrantly violating the 2015 deal by marching forward with enriching uranium to a higher grade than was allowed under the Obama agreement means Biden can't be too nice to Tehran. The key thing will be who wins the Iranian election. The chances are it will be someone more conservative than the present lot, so any talks with Washington will be even tougher. It's worth remembering, however, that all things nuclear in Iran actually rest, not with the elected president, but with the Supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has been around for so long he knows all the tricks and won't allow any new president to act without his sayso. Khamenei has watched Iran's economy cratering and the younger generation of Iranians getting increasingly angry and desperate. So maybe he will decide that with Biden in the White House he has a chance to reverse the downward spiral and revive the 2015 nuclear deal. There is a big obstacle in the way and that's trust. Iran doesn't trust the US to honour any new agreement because of what Trump did, and Washington doesn't believe that Iran's nuclear programme is peaceful. Obama didn't believe it either but was prepared to gamble with Tehran. Trump didn't believe it and thought Iran would pursue a nuclear bomb with or without the 2015 deal. Now Biden is prepared to follow Obama and take a risk once again. Ayatollah Khamenei must believe he has more cards to play than Biden and is currently enjoying the poker rituals. Israel will be watching closely, especially if Bibi Netanyahu manages to do his usual Houdini trick and form another government rather than go to jail.