Who's afraid of Donald Trump?

For all kinds of reasons, there are a lot of people in the United States and around the world who are now afraid of Donald Trump. It's because of who he is, his personality, his style of leadership, his wizz-bang foreign policy statements and decisions, his unpredictability and, of course, his tweets. Not afraid, as in frightened to death, but afraid/wary about what he might do next. When he comes to the UK for his visit on Friday July 13, I suspect he will be on his best behaviour and I don't mean that to sound very Brit condescending. But the UK is still America's closest ally (not France which is the oldest ally) and he will be coming to meet the Queen. Trump, like all of his predecessors - and she has met everyone single one since Eisenhower apart from Lyndon B Johnson - will probably have what we used to call the "collywobbles", or butterflies in the stomach at the thought of meeting Her Majesty. And quite right too. She will no doubt put him at his ease but he cannot afford to put a foot wrong because press reporters and especially photographers will be itching to witness a faux pas which they can spread all over the front pages. Any sign of discourtesy or overbearingness or yawns behind the hand or fingers uplifted the wrong way or any sign of ignorance on royal matters and the headlines will be there. The expected mass protests will be nothing in comparison with a Trump smirk when he meets the queen or a curtsy instead of a bow or tripping up when walking backwards because some idiot in the White House will have told him that everyone is supposed to walk backwards from Her Majesty. Oh it's going to be such fun.

Can Trump ever trust Putin?

Donald Trump's whole strategy is to develop personal relationships with the world's most controversial leaders in order to create an element of trust and possibly a breakthrough in diplomatic relations. Nothing wrong with that. But the three leaders I have in mind, Vladimir Putin, Xi Zinping and Kim Jong-un - can they ever actually be trusted? Fine, so Trump gets on well with Vlad and Xi and Kim but these are all cunning, often obtuse, sometimes deceitful leaders who know what they want and how they're going to get it. Having a friendly chap in the White House who is prepared to overlook their terrible record on human rights and their military adventures or, in the case of North Korea, their continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons, must help them a lot in their endeavours. Keep Trump smiling by holding summits every month but carry on as before. Now Trump is no fool. He knows because his national security advisers will be telling him every day that these sort of leaders cannot be trusted to do what Trump asks of them just because it's Trump who is asking. Look at Kim for example. He promised to start denuclearising once the summit with Trump was over but the latest satellites pictures show that North Koea is still building its nuclear reactor complex at Yongbyon which povides the nuclear material required for bombs and warheads. That's pretty flagrant! Does Kim think, "Well I've got Trump on side now, and Xi will back me up." When will Kim actually do something which will genuinely demonstrate that he's on the path to scrapping his weapons? Possibly never! Likewise now we know there will be a summit beween Trump and Putin, it'll be no good if Putin just carries on interfering in eastern Ukraine and killing anti-Assad rebels in Syria. Can Trump really bring about a breakthrough with Putin so the Russian leader sees the error of his ways? I really don't think so. After all, he can always say to Trump, "Hey, Big Man, you lot invaded Iraq and see what a disaster that was, so don't preach to me about military adventures." So summits are fine and building relationships is good and much needed. But if it's all smiles and handshakes and not much else, the world will not be a safer place as Trump predicted after his meeting with Kim.

John Bolton shakes hands with Putin with gritted teeth

When you are America's national security adviser, you have to do what your boss orders you to do. I'm sure Donald Trump didn't have to tell John Bolton to shake Putin's hand but I bet he said something along the lines of, "Be nice to Putin". Bolton is a solid, unforgiving Cold War hawk who, if given a chance would probably prefer to go three rounds in the boxing ring with the Russian leader. Although he would lose of course because Putin looks a lot more macho than Bolton with his silly moustache. But as Trump's representative to talk to Putin and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, about a summit beween the two leaders next month, Bolton was all smiles and handshakes. I don't know why Trump sent Bolton rather than Mike Pompeo to Moscow but it might have been out of a sense of mischief. "Hey, Vladimir, I'm sending you the man who hates you. Try and get him to love you and it'll make my job easier to get our relations warmed up. Don't tell him I said that, Vlad." Putin duly shook Bolton's hand and although he wasn't looking into his eyes at the time, he did actually manage a sort of smile. So, all is well. There'll be lots of friendly chats and hohoho's about Robert Mueller and the "witchhunt" and Bolton will return to DC full of hope and confidence that the planned summit will begin a new era. Obama tried to "reset" relations with Russia and it worked for a bit but then it all went wrong when Putin began throwing his weight around, sending troops to Crimea to annexe it and bring it back into the Russian fold, and "invaded" eastern Ukraine. Trump, it seems, is prepared to put all that to one side and to get friendly with Putin. Bolton must have had gritted teeth throughout his time with Putin, but he was under orders to get the summit fixed, never mind about Crimea. It's too late for Crimea, that's a done deal, Putin got away with that. But eastern Ukraine has got to be on the table at the summit. So too does meddling in US elections and Russian military support for Assad in Syria. If Bolton has managed to get these topics on the agenda, then the summit could be a positive event. Putin will have enjoyed his time spent with Bolton. Inwardly he would have been chuckling to himself and loving every moment as Bolton squirmed in his seat. And Bolton would have known that. Yes, I reckon Trump chose Bolton ahead of Pompeo for the Moscow assignment deliberately! Hohoho.

Another victory for Fortress America

Every judge in the land pretty well was against the idea of Trump banning people coming into the US from several designated mostly Muslim nations (originally seven of them). It was unconstitutional, un-American and an abuse of presidential power. But now the Supreme Court in its wisdom has ruled exacty the oppositie. It IS within the power of the president to decide to ban these sort of people, provided he, the president, thinks it's in the interests of the country's national security. It's a victory for Trumpism. America First, Banning Muslims, Keeping America Safe etc etc. Federal and district judges in the lower courts concluded it was against all legal and constitutional principles and ordered an immediate lifting of the ban imposed by the White House. The US Supreme Court of course is a politically-appointed body of judges, with the Trump-appointed Neil Gorsuch sitting very much on the Trump platform. Of the nine Supreme Court judges, five were appointed by Republican presidents and four by Democratic presidents. The ruling on the Trump travel ban was 5-4 in favour of the president. You don't have to be a cynic to imagine that the legal discussions between the nine judges went along political as well as constitutional lines. The 5-4 conclusion was that the president was absolutely within his constitutional rights to ban whomever he wanted in the name of national security. No wonder the first tweet from Trump was all in capital letters! The Supreme Court often takes a different approach on the constitution from judges in lower courts. That's why all presidents end up going to the Supreme Court with their most treasured policies. Obama did it too. He went to the Supreme Court over his Obamacare health reform after judges elsewhere had said it was unconstitutional to force people to take up the health packages. The Supreme Court summing-up started by saying it WAS unconstitutional and the reporter from CNN rushed out to tell the world that the judges had ruled against Obama. But as the excited reporter gave her account before the cameras and explained what a mighty blow it was for Obama, the judges in their solemn and sombre manner went on to say that athough it was technically unconstitutional it wasn't in this case as Obama had won approval from Congress in a democratic vote. Poor CNN. Golden rule, never grab the first sentence of a Supreme Court ruling and run with it. Because the judges will very often say the immortal word..."But...." In the travel ban case there was no such confusion. The Chief Justice said Trump was in his rights and that was that. So it was the president himself who rushed into print. "WOW" was the word he chose to end his tweet.

James Mattis needs to be protected by his commander-in-chief

There are worrying signs that Donald Trump has stopped keeping Jim Mattis in the loop. The supremely baggy-eyed defence secretary appears to have been caught on the hop on a number of occasions recently, the most serious of which was the president's off-the-cuff decision to cancel the joint US/South Korean annual military exercises to please Kim Jong-un. The Pentagon spokeswoman, when asked, tried to suggest there had been consultation. But I think she was being diplomatic for the sake of her boss. Trump's unexpected offer certainly took the South Korean government by surprise, and it will head the agenda when Mattis visits Seoul after his trip to Beijing this week. Mattis was also against the forming of a US space force but Trump demanded it anyway, and he wanted America to stay with the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and we know what happened there. Trump does what he wants and I suspect he is beginning to feel, "Well, there's no point discussing the matter with Mattis because he will be against it, so let's go ahead without him." If this is what is happening it's a grave mistake on Trump's part. Mattis has stuck loyally with him from the moment he was appointed to be Pentagon chief although there must have been occasions when he just wanted to chuck it all in. But Mattis, it is important to remember, is a retired four-star Marine Corps general, and they don't get much more loyal and tough than that. Trump is his commander-in-chief and he will do the job he has been given to do to the very best of his ability. That does not include any thoughts of resignation, unless of course Trump tells him he no longer has confidence in him. Until that happens, Mattis should be treated with the respect he deserves and kept totally in the loop. There's no point having a trusted cabinet member and adviser if you don't bother even to tell him about a dramatic change in defence policy until after it has been announced. Mattis has a tricky assignment in China this week. He needs to be tough about China's blatant military expansion on the disputed islands in the South China Sea, but at the same show a degree of deference towards his Chinese hosts because of their crucial role in handling Kim Jong-un and marching him towards denuclearisation. Mattis is a good listener and I'm sure he will be careful in his choice of words. But Beijing knows that Trump has not been altogether open with his defence secretary and has gone against his advice on several occasions. That gives Beijing an edge when the issue of the South China Sea islands comes up for discussion. Best advice for Mattis is to relax a bit. He often looks so stiff and solemn. But at a US Naval War College graduation ceremony over the weekend he joked about needing a glass of vodka to help clear his throat when addressing the students. His whole face changed when he grinned. A bit of diplomatic grinning in Beijing might do the trick. Even President Xi Zinping has been caught smiling on occasions.

Sarah Sanders shown the door

Every restaurant owner has the right to refuse entry to a customer on the following grounds: racial prejudice, sexism, and if they are fully booked...and that's about it. Sarah Huckerbee Sanders doesn't fall into any of these categories. Trump's press secretary wanted a quiet meal with her family but the staff didn't want to serve her because she works for Donald Trump. I don't suppose it's the first restaurant to turn away someone from the US gvernment, any US government, but I think it's downright rude, stupid, and very undemocratic. Sarah Sanders has a pretty rough time with the US White House press corps, and quite rightly, as she has tried to present her president's statements and tweets in a positive light. That's her job, and a lot of reporters on the White House circuit believe she does best what they say the president does best which is to lie. But that's politics, and she has survived the rough and tumble of the White House press conferences by sticking as close as she can to the prepared script in order to keep her job and serve her master. Does that give a restuarant the right to bar her and her family from enjoying a quiet night out? No, not in my view. I'm sure the restaurant will be cheered by non-Trump supporters and it might encourage other restaurants to do the same. But I think it would be a sad day if restaurant owners in America start putting up signs in their windows: "Only Trump-haters can eat here". Commercially, it would be a stupid move anyway but restaurant owners should get on with what they do best, if they are any good: cook decent food, serve it politely and create a friendly atmosphere.The Red Hen in Lexington, Virginia, where Sarah Sanders was shown the door, should apologise and offer her and her family a free meal, and get a life.

First Lady doesn't care about what?

Melania Trump I would have thought is the sort of First Lady who would look carefully into her wardrobe each morning before deciding what to wear for a particular occasion. Going down to the border with Mexico to visit the children who were heard weeping for their mamas and papas in the ghastly caged accommodation povided by her husband's administration should have required a great deal of thought, wardrobe-wise. Definitely not a fancy dress, definitely no fancy pearls, and no sweeping expensive scarves. Something reasonably functional without being too drab. There must have a few choices. But out comes her favourite throw-on jacket, the one with the eye-catching words on the back: "I really don't care, do u?" If she had thought a little bit more she might have shrugged her shoulders and said to herself: "Nah, that's a bit tacky, especially where I'm going today." If she DID think about it, then she obviously decided that this message, whomever it was being aimed at, was exactly what she wanted to say. If that's the case, then the message must surely have been aimed at her husband, not the children. It wouldn't make sense if she was trying to say she didn't care about the children. The First Lady's helpful press office explained that there wasn't any hidden meaning. They were right. It wasn't hidden at all, it was blatant. So if the message was intended for Trump's eyes, did she get the most almighty boll...ing when she got back to the White House? Arriving at the children's detention camp, she said all the right things and I'm sure her personal dismay at the sound of those crying children played a part in persuading Trump to change his mind about separating them from their parents. So was the jacket message a cry for help from the First Lady? Why did she buy it in the first place? She must have thought: "One of these days I'm going to wear it and let the whole world know what I feel." Unfortunately she chose the wrong occasion.

Now it's going to be the Trump/Putin show

He has ticked off Kim Jong-un on his summit list, now it's the turn of Vladimir Putin. There was never any doubt that Trump would want to have a summit with Putin, never mind what Robert Mueller, special counsel, is trying to do. Most other governments in the free world believe Putin doesn't deserve to be treated as an equal after he sent in troops to annexe Crimea and then deployed thousands of Russian military disguised as mercenaries into eastern Ukraine. But Trump thinks it's crazy not to talk to Putin, and if the proposed meeting before or soon after the Nato summit in Brussels on July 11-12 alarms his European allies, he won't mind. I think I have said it before, I personally think it makes sense for Trump and Putin to see each other. It's a helluva lot better than shouting at each other from the rooftops. If Trump can sit down with Kim Jong-un, he can certainly do likewise with Putin. So, get on with the preparations and let's see what happens. That charming anti-Russian hawk, John Bolton, is off to Moscow to start preparing the summit which should be fun. Bolton will have to swallow his pride and try and smile to the Russians. He and Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, should make interesting bedfellows. But that's diplomacy for you. Sometimes you have to be nice to people you loath. Trump, of course, doesn't loath Putin. He likes him and they'll have a terrific summit, probably in Vienna, with lots of pledges of a new friendship and joint commitments to make the world a better place. It's a shame Trump doesn't drink alcohol, because he won't be able to join in when the Russians bring out the vodka. So Trump has a busy calendar next month. The Nato summit when he will have to try not to shout at everyone as he did at the G7 summit in Quebec, tea with the Queen of England when he will have to mind his p's and q's and remember not to put his hand on her back, and his get-together with Putin. He'll be relieved to get back to his place in Mar-a-Lago in Florida.

The crying Trump children

There are so many appalling things going on in the world. The Taliban killing 30 Afghan soldiers just 24 hours after enjoying a truce and hugging other Afghan soldiers in end-of-Ramadan celebrations is one of the sickest events reported today. But the sound of children crying for their mothers and fathers in these ghastly camps set up for the separated families coming over illegally from Central America into the US is so desperately sad and wicked and brutal and unforgiveable that if Trump doesn't stop this totally unacceptable policy soon, there must be coordinated condemnation around the world. The video of the weeping children is heartbreaking. But I know what the thinking is inside the White House and the Department of Homeland Security: if parents don't want to be separated from their children, then don't come over the border. It's a ruthlessly tough policy which is having tragic consequences. Senator John McCain, a beacon of inspiration and old-style (pre-Trump) godliness, has called for the policy to end. But his Republican colleagues in Congress just don't seem to know what to do. There is such a lack of visionary thinking going on. All they are concerned about is the mid-term elections in November and don't want to say or do anything that goes against the Trump Doctrine. Except for John McCain. I suspect Trump will not waver until he gets everything he wants - especially Congress funding for The Wall. It's another sad day in the United States of America.

Trump goes Star Trek

Trump always fancied having a Space Corps, really to let America's main rivals know that the US military is going to be everywhere. Well, of course, they have been in space for years, but having an actual space corps means the Pentagon will have to focus more sharply on space wars than ever before. It does NOT mean there will be Marines circulating in space - haha - it's not that sort of Space Corps. But in Trump's mind, he wants one four-star military man in charge of space. He has now ordered the Pentagon to get on with it. The US military has relied on strategic systems in space ever since Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when a huge American-led coalition armoured force carried out a left-hook manoeuvre to sneak up behind Saddam Hussein’s Revolutionary Guard, dug in on the Iraq/Kuwait border. The famous left hook was performed at dead of night across more than 150 miles of open desert. It succeeded because of global positioning system (GPS) satellites, guiding the US Abrams battle tanks as they swept through the sand. Twenty-seven years later, the US is more dependent than ever on space-based navigation aids. Every weapon system designed for long-range precision firepower, from missiles to artillery and from armed drones to guided-missile destroyers and carriers are linked to GPS. Today that makes the US military vulnerable because their GPS dependency invites potential big-power enemies to exploit ways of targeting the very systems which have proved so valuable in every war involving America since the 1991 liberation of Kuwait. Both Russia and China have devoted research funds into developing anti-satellite weapons and jamming systems capable of knocking out America’s space-based navigation networks. Pentagon chiefs have been warning of this growing threat for a long time. Adequate funds have had to be found to develop weapons and methods to protect the satellites, and also to devise ways of reducing the reliance on GPS. For example, the US Navy has reverted to teaching sailors how to navigate using the sun, moon and stars. The sextant is back. A space war is a real possibility. It’s for this reason that a debate has been going on about whether the Pentagon should form a self-standing Space Force or Corps that absorbs responsibility for all military systems orbiting the Earth and for developing a comprehensive programme to safeguard satellites from attack. The new corps will be responsible for protecting America’s assets in space to make sure that wars on the ground, in the air and at sea can be prosecuted without fear of suddenly being blinded by crashed navigation systems. James Mattis, the US defence secretary, has always been opposed to the idea of a separate space corps. So, too, is the US Air Force which already controls about 80 satellites and wants to retain responsibility for space. The air force also works closely with the National Reconnaissance Office which operates America’s spy satellites. They complement each other. However, all the US armed services currently have their own designated space commands, each a rival to the other for funds. So, there is a legitimate argument for rationalising the different authorities into a single space force to make sure the right investment is made for the future.

Give Trump a chance, says Harry.

Thanks to the dreadfully indiscreet and rather overwhelming father of Megan Markle, Thomas Markle, Prince Harry apparently believes Brexit is an experiment and everyone should give Donald Trump a chance. While neither of these confidential remarks to his father-in-law mean a huge amount, they will probably embarrass Theresa May on the one hand, and amuse Trump on the other. There's nothing like getting any form of approval from a member of the British Royal Family! Although, to be fair, I don't expect Trump really cares one way or the other. Yet he now knows that when he makes his visit to London next month he might have one potential friend in the rows of people preparing to shake his hand. Thomas Markle I suppose can't be castigated for revealing confidental chats with his son-in-law over the phone. He is probably unaware of the fortress-like protocol that normally governs every move made and every word spoken by any member of the Royal Family. But this new peripheral member of the family sounds like he is going to be a constant thorn in the royal flesh. Prince Harry will have to mind what he says to his wife's father in future, and especially to Piers Morgan who will gleefully lap up anything that gives his television interviews some good publicity. The two alleged remarks by Prince Harry are interesting to a point. What makes him think Brexit is an experiment? Unortunately, Brexit is a reality in the making. If only it was an experiment that could be cast aside if it doesn't work. We're stuck with it whatever Theresa May manages to squeeze out of the EU bureaucrats. The date is set for our departure from the EU and whatever Parliament eventually says I can't see that changing. Unless Harry knows something none of the rest of us knows. As for his concession to Trump, it was a very diplomatic thing to say, although somewhat condescending. His "Let's give the old boy a chance" is a bit like those wonderful comments from the Tony Blair era when government ministers and officials, without attribution, used to say to us reporters, "You know, George W Bush is really quite intelligent." Good old Blighty, we can be wonderfully patronising when we want to be. Comes from our Empire days I suppose.

Is Trump America's first elected dictator?

Donald Trump believes that everything he does is right. Well, ok, he is the elected president of the United States. But as his presidency progresses, he is showing tendencies that sound more and more dictatorial. Perhaps other past US presidents ended up thinking like this. I guess Richard Nixon did. But Trump I believe is in a different category. It's partly because he didn't get where he is today by being a politician. He got where he is today by being a wealthy businessman with huge deals in property and real estate, and being a TV show presenter and, of course, being Trump. So he came to the White House with a different view of the way the presidency should be run. As he "joked" the other day, he wants to be America's cult figure, someone who is worshipped, ideolised and someone who is loved and feared at the same time. People like Kim Jong-un, Xi Zinping and Vladimir Putin. He wants this sort of power. After nearly 17 months in office he is showing such dictatorial tendencies that Congress should be seriously worried about the venerated Constitution. But Congress is in a mess and in no position to take on Trump. So the latest move by Trump's administration to seize illegal immigrant children as they try to cross the border from Mexico with their famiies, and placing them in a separate facility - a warehouse - has nothing to do with human rights or the law but looks more like a deliberate policy to blackmail the Democrats into approving The Wall he wants to build along the border. "You let me build the wall and you pay for it and I'll release these 2,000 children." Now if that isn't dictatorial stuff, then I'm living in a different world. Those heading ilegally over the border are now snatched and charged with a criminal offence. Their chilren, classed as unaccompanied minors - because their parents are in custody - are removed into the care of the government. Sometimes what I hear and read every day makes me wonder whether this is really the United States of America. No one, it seems, dare speak up against Trump, so he will go marching on doing what he wants. The only thing is: this is what he promised he would do when he was campaigning to be president. So everything he has done so far was in his election manifesto. So this is what at least half the country actually wants their president to do. While he retains that voter backing, Trumpism is going to reign supreme. You see, he is already the Supreme Leader, Trump Join-me!!

Who will blink first in the US/China trade war?

Trump said he would do it and he has done it. He has approved tariffs on Chinese imported goods worth $50 billion. China will do likewise on US imported goods. Round one of a trade war. Trump thinks the US will win the trade war, any trade war, but there is far more at stake than a simple America First policy. For a start, China's acquiescence on the North Korea issue will be vital if a proper no-nukes agreement is going to become a reality. At present, China is participating in sanctions against Pyongyang, although there are undoubtedly leaks in the sanctions regime. But it was one of the ingredients that persuaded Kim Jong-un to go for "peace" with the US. If the trade war leads to wholesale tariffs across all imported items, Beijing might decide that cooperation with the Trump America is no longer beneficial or sensible. Might China, then, lift sanctions unilaterally against North Korea as a snub to Washington? It's a risk. But somehow I think Beijing will play the long game and keep the trade war as a separate battle with Washington. China knows that if Kim Jong-un plays his cards right, and keeps Trump happy on the nuclear front, the benefits for China's future could be huge: not just no more heavyweight American military exercises in South Korea but also a much-reduced US troop presence, perhaps even zero troops. As the Chinese economy gathers pace and its military modernisation programme, including expanding its naval and missile presence in the South China Sea, a Korean peninsula without 28,500 US troops would be a massive bonus. So President Xi Zinping will play this one carefully. He knows, as does Trump, that trade wars between the world's two largest economies will end up as a futile exercise. Some grown-up arrangement will have to be agreed. It will be interesting to see who blinks first.

Is Trump on a roll to a second term?

The summit with Kim Jong-un will not guarantee Donald Trump winning a second term in the White House. But the Trump on display in Singapore and afterwards, and the way the Republican Party is heading right now probably WILL see him through to another four years. Trump is dominating the airwaves and his daily tweets are now very much part of the political landscape. In other words, you can't escape Trump and Trumpism and with that sort of Big Personality momentum, it's hard to see how a Democratic candidate, let alone a rival Republican, could get a look in. It's Trump until 2024!! For Trump supporters, and there are lots of them, that's no doubt terrific news but for anyone in the US, and there are lots of them too, who cannot stand the man and hate everything he is doing to America, the world, US allies etc etc, this is a very bleak prospect indeed. The Republican Party has turned into the Trump Party. New candidates for Congress are all Trump speak-alikes. So Congress itself is going to change radically, with the new breed of Republican senators and congressmen pushing for Trump's policies whatever they are. With the prospect of Trump being around until 2024, other world leaders are going to have to take this on board. The Brits will be leaving the EU by the end of March next year and if Theresa May is still in power she will have to do her damndest to get to like Trump to persuade him to sign up for a lot of fancy trade deals. Angela Merkel, if she survives as Chancellor, will also have to swallow her obvious distaste for Trump and try to get to understand him. But Trump won't care. He'll stick with the leaders who might join his fan club, perhaps the new Italian prime minister, probably the leaders in Poland and Hungary, the Israeli prime minister obviously who dotes on him, and then the two leaders who Trump wants to be cosy with, President Xi Zinping of China and President Vladimir Putin. Oh and the Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. There's a friendship that is going to blossom whether the North Korean dictator does everything he's supposed to do or not. Much will ride on Trump's North Korean spectacular, but even if it fails to provide a totally non-nuclear North Korea, Trump will make sure it is viewed as one of the greatest foreign policy success stories in history. So, rest of the world, get used to the idea: Trump is here to stay. Forget Robert Mueller. Russia/Trump collusion is going nowhere.

Let's look on the plus side

Donald Trump has to be given credit for making the Kim Jong-un summit possible even if he didn't achieve any real meaningful breakthrough. Denuclearisation is a long word and sounds good but so does discombobulate and antidisestablishmentarianism. But they mean nothing unless they really do mean something!! So North Korea agreeing to scrap nuclear weapons within three years would have been a fantastic result, or even an agreement to fix a timetable for talks about scrapping all of North Korea's nuclear weapons would have been an achievement. Nothing like that came out of the summit discussions but that word denuclearisation cropped up a lot. Nevertheless Trump and Kim Jong-un sat in the same room together, they chatted for 40 minutes with only interpreters present and they didn't fight each other or hurl insults or storm out in a temper, all of which is good news. And Trump deserves credit, even though it was actually Kim who started the process off by inviting the US president for a meeting. If the meeting makes war less likely - horrific war involving the death of millions - then historic progress has been made. It's not yet of Nobel peace prize proportions. but if the summit leads to a situation in which North Korea begins to look and sound more like South Korea, and nukes are no longer an issue, that is definitely Nobelish. But there's a helluva long way to go. We've been down this path before, with promises of denuclearisation going nowhere. But the face-to-face between Trump and Kim DOES make a huge difference. What is worrying for the moment is that Kim seems to be the one who has made most of the running. Certainly the North Korean state media is going overboard about how the US is going to lift sanctions. If this doesn't happen - and it won't yet and possibly won't for a long time - disillusion will set in fast. Then I anticipate the rhetoric will start all over again, with Kim's spokesmen mouthing off about how Trump has failed to honour his pledges. The next few months will tell whether this historic summit will lead to a genuinely new era or just another potentially dangerous disappointment.

Kim Jong-un wins huge concession

Trump came out with one very unexpected titbit when he spoke at the press conference after the summit with his new friend, Kim Jong-un. He said he had offered to cancel all future war games with South Korea if North Korea continued to behave itself. Wow, that was such a big concession that South Korea was left breathless. Trump actually agreed with North Korea that the annual military exercises were provocative. He also said, very Trump-like, that cancelling the war games would save the US a lot of money. And that's good presumably in Trump's thinking. In return, Kim said he would get rid of a ballistic missile test site. Well I'm sorry but scrapping probably an obselete missile site in exchange for the ending of the annual joint exercises between the US and South Korea wich provide the only chance for the two countries to prepare themselves for a possible conflict on the Korean peninsula is about as comparable as the North Koreans agreeing to get rid of a naval patrol boat as a quid pro quo for the US scrapping a carrier battle group. What did Trump think he was doing? This is just the start of many years of negotiations with Kim. You don't open the proceedings by offering to end one of the main things that keeps South Korea safe and prevents the one million-strong North Korean army from surging over the border. The Pentagon must be going mad. All those contingency plans just thrown out of the window of the Capella Hotel where the summit took place. Not just North Korea but also China will be delighted with this Trump gift. After all, they have been pushing for this for nearly 20 years. Now they get it without having to give much in return, apart from smiling a lot and accepting trips to see Trump in Washington. Thee is no question that the meeting between Trump and Kim was a special event. An historic event because it has never happened before. But Trump got over excited and went beyond the script. Somehow the Pentagon will have to fudge that unsolicited promise by Trump and continue to plan for the next military exercise. Otherwise Kim Jong-un is going to be laughing all the way back to Pyongyang.

Trump now needs Kim Jong-un more than ever

Donald Trump has angered so many of his best allies that he now needs to get close to Kim Jong-un, otherwise he won't have any friends at all. Judging by the nods and winks from Mike Pompeo and others it looks like the summit is all wrapped up already with some unspecific pledges from both sides, enough to get a formal communique signed and sealed. Provided Trump and Kim actually like each other and trust each other. I would imagine President Xi Zinping has warned Kim: "Don't trust Trump. Get what you can but don't give away too much and come back to me before you offer anything serious." By now Kim knows everything there is to know about Trump, and by normal standards he should be wary as hell. Look what Trump said about Justin Trudeau, and they were the best of friends only a few months ago. But if Kim has done his homework properly he will know that Trump is desperate for a successful summit. He needs Kim more than Kim needs Trump. Kim always has Xi Zinping to fall back on. Trump has no one because no one is Trump's friend. Try and name one leader who actually trusts and likes Trump. Trump claims the Chinese president is his friend, but Xi Zinping would never consider himself a friend of Trump. He is far too wily and cunning and devious and self-important. Emmanuel Macron used to be his friend but isn't any more because of Trump's G7 tirade. Merkel can't stand him. Theresa May probably hates him but is too British to say so. Trudeau is now Enemy Number One in Trump's eyes. There is no one who rings up Trump for a friendly chat. It's that bad. So Trump will do his damndest to be friends with Kim Jong-un. If the summit fails because of poor chemistry between the two men, I don't know where Trump will turn. The only hope for a friend will be the one man who Trump said right from the beginning would be one of his mates - Vladimir Putin. I predict that if Kim spurns his advances, Trump will be on the phone to the Kremlin to seek a summit with Putin. Robert Mueller will have a fit.

Trump is an all-or-nothing man

Watch out, Kim Jong-un, there's an angry Donald Trump preparing to meet you. Or at least it seems he is angry after his bust-up with Justin Trudeau at the G7 summit. But you're never quite sure with Trump. Was he genuinely angry or was he play-acting to put the frighteneres on the North Korean leader? If he could do this to a close ally, what might he do to the Little Rocket Man if he so much as dares to disobey him? On the face of it, Trump's loss of temper at the G7 and his early departure could have been a ruse to prepare the ground for his first session with Kim. But somehow, although this was the interpretation put on Trump's bullying conduct at the G7, I doubt he was abusing his allies to send a message to Kim. I think Trump was just plain bad-tempered at the summit with his closest allies because they didn't do what he wanted them to do. He wanted them to bow down to his infinite power and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, in particular, was having none of it. Trudeau's message to Trump was the same one given by Hugh Grant, as the Briish prime minister, in the film Love Actually when the visiting American president claimed he had got everytning he wanted out of the meeting at Number 10 Downing St. Grant told a press conference that Britain was a great country that was not going to be bullied by the US. Trudeau must have seen the film because he used almost the same line in rejecting Trump's tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. Trump's tweets about the Canadian leader after the G7 in which he called Trudeau weak and dishonest were rude and disrespectful. No wonder Angela Merkel said the tweets were disappointing and depressing. I wonder what Therea May thought. As far as Trump was concerned she wasn't even there because he made no reference to her at all when he listed the other leaders. I can't recall a G7 summit ending in such disarray. Very bad news for the transatlantic alliance. But will the bad vibes from the G7 summit help Trump to achieve success at the summit with Kim on the Singapore island? Well, Trump has said he will know within one minute whether he is going to get on with Kim or not. Yikes, that's just 60 seconds. So typical of Trump. It's all or bust. He's the all-or-nothing man. If Kim fails to smile or he looks disrespectful in that first exchange, it could all be over. Instant walk-out time for the leader of the Western world. In fact what will probably happen is that Trump and Kim will become instant mates. Kim is far more Trump's type than Trudeau or Merkel or even Emmanuel Macron. So Trump will come out smiling and his post-Singapore tweets will be all about what a wonderful man Kim is. Trudeau and the rest can get to the back of the queue!!

Trump is the odd one out

Pretty well everyone was against Trump at the G7 summit. What a way for the "leader of the western world" to lead the western world. Only the new Italian populist leader sided with Trump. This time it was all about Russia and Trump's wish to have his friend Vladimir Putin back round the G7 table. To be accepted as the G8th member, Putin has a lot of apologising and making up to do and he certainly isn't going to do either of those things. So Trump was pretty outrageous to even suggest having the Russian president back in favour. His suggestion met with stoney faces. The G7 club is supposed to be all about unity and consensus. Otherwise there's not much point having it at all. But when it's Trump versus the rest on steel tariffs, climate change, Iran nuclear deal and a host of other big issues, such as Palestine/Israel etc, what hope is there of any form of consensus. Angela Merkel is probably right when she says laying out the differences with the US is more honest than cobbling together some meaningless communique which tries to paper over the huge cracks. Trump has stirred up the G7 members so much that calling the other nations allies no longer seems appropriate. All Trump was interested in was spelling out his demands and then flying off to Singapore for his one-on-one chat with Kim Jong-un. Good riddance I expect Merkel and co thought as they tried to swallow the food on their plates. I wonder if they started to think: "Hey, let's have a G6 summit next time, no US and no Russia."

Giuliani is Trump's attack dog

Ah now I get it! Rudy Giuliani has been employed by Trump to be his attack dog, to make outrageous comments wherever he goes in order to draw the fire away from the president. As long as Giuliani is saying stupid, and in the latest case, mysogenist remarks that grab the headlines, people are supposed to forget that the president of the United States is being investigated for allegedly colluding with Moscow to destroy Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming president. In his latest foray, Giuliani, still in Israel, spoke ill of Stormy Daniels, the porn star who alleges she had sex with Trump way back before he was president. He basically said porn stars who sell their bodies are not entitled to be treated as proper women, certainly never to be treated with respect, and therefore, effectively are worthless as human beings. Now whatever you might think about porn stars and/or women who sell their bodies for sex, there are bound to be a myriad reasons why a woman turns to this way of life. It doesn't make her worthless or evil or criminal or someone who should be spat at in the streets. This is largely what Giuliani was saying. He compared Stormy Daniels with professional women and "women of substance". He then referred to Donald Trump's three wives as women who were all beautiful, classy and of substance. So Giuliani, who has himself had three wives, denigrated Stormy Daniels as someone so low in the pecking order of human beings that anything she might have to say about herself and her alleged "affair" with Trump in a hotel room is of no consequence. So, in other words, a man who is planning to be president of the United States who, allegedly, consorts with a woman of ill repute is fine. But the alleged woman of ill repute who consorts with the man who wants to be president is beneath contempt and not worthy of being compared with any other member of the female species. It is, without question, a pretty unpleasant and certainly harsh position to take. I don't know whether this is Giuliani's real view, alhough I suspect it is, or whether he is doing his master's wishes by going out and about like a rottweiler without a lead and moving the headlines away from Trump's Big Worry - the Moscow collusion story. But, increasingly, the former mayor of New York who was once treated with great respect for the way he handled 9/11, is becoming Trump's court jester, except that his jokes are never amusing.

Rudy Giuliani is a schmuck

It really beggars belief that Rudy Giuliani was once a presidential candidate for the Republican Party. As Trump's lawyer, he just cannot help putting his foot in it. The Trump/Kim Jong-un summit is now a week away. Everything finally seems to be moving ahead smoothly. Relationships are being built and there is every expectation that something positive may come out of the get-together. Provided no one in Washington starts insulting the North Korean leader. Then up pops Giuliani on a trip to Israel and he reveals that after Trump cancelled the summit, Kim went on his hands and knees and literally begged the president of the United States to reinstate the summit. And this begging position was fine for the United States because it showed how tough Trump had been in scrapping the summit, Giuliani told his audience. Giuliani is a schmuck of the grand order. Even if it is true rhat Kim begged Trump to hold the summit after all, this sort of tittle tattle should have been kept confidential. Revealing it to the world might just screw up the summit yet again. Why on earth is Giuliani allowed to make any comment abou anything as Trump's lawyer? In fact why is he employed at all as Trump's lawyer? The summit was initially cancelled by Trump after Pyongyang got extremely angry about the stupid remarks made by John Bolton, the national security adviser, and then repeated by Mike Pence, another nightmare non-public relatons man, when they both announced that the North Korea nuke situation was similar to the Gaddafi/Libya scenario. Gaddafi gave up his nukes, then followed an uprising and eventually Gaddafi was lynched by Western-backed militia. That remark caused such fury in Pyongyang that the hostile vibes persuaded Trump to call off the summit. Now it's back on again, partly, it is assumed, because Kim told Washington, "Sorry about all the anger, but I want the summit anyway." Giuliani's spin on Kim's response just makes it look like Trump and his aides are having a good laugh at Kim's expense. The former mayor of New York should be fired and if he goes on his hands and knees to beg for his job back, Trump should kick him hard on his posterior and boot him put of the room. He is a total liability.

Iran throws down the gauntlet

When you engage in confrontational diplomacy, you can expect a slap in the face back. Such is the case between Donald Trump and Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, the spiritual leader. Trump extracted the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and now the ayatollah has ordered his nuclear scientists to get ready to rev up their work on enriching uranium. So are we back to square one? Is Tehran going to make a rush for a nuclear weapon or is the ayatollah's command just a way of scaring the other signatories of the 2015 deal to stay loyal to the agreement and start trading big-time with Iran? Whatever it is, the latest move from Tehran is a signal to the rest of the world that Iran is not going to be dictated to by Trump. The timing of the announcement was also clearly deliberate. Only a week away from the summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un, Ayatollah Khamenei wanted to make it clear that whatever happens at the meeting in Singapore it would have no relevance to Iran's future strategies. We already know, from the documents stolen by Mossad, that Iran WAS developing nuclear weapons up to 2003, despite persistent denials, and then put a halt to the work, but kept open the possibility of reviving the pogramme. Now Tehran says it plans to build new and bigger gas centrifuges to accelerate the enriching process if necessary. The US intelligence services have been warning for years that it would take Iran about a year to produce a nuclear bomb if it decided to push ahead as fast as possible to develop a weapon. This is now the threat from the ayatollah. Israel must be preparing its contingency plans for military action. Trump right now has North Korea on his mind and he probably hasn't given much thought yet to what Iran is up to. But surely he must have worked out how Tehran would react to his decision to opt out of the 2015 deal? Confrontational decisions lead to confrontational reactions. So the Tehran announcement is not a surprise. But it means that even as he discusses denuclearisation with Kim Jong-un, Trump needs to keep one eye firmly on the Iranians. On the one hand, he has provoked North Korea into considering giving up its nuclear waapons. On the other hand, he has provoked Iran into considering reviving its nuclear weapons programme. That's a kind of special madness.

Trump wants to be the Supreme Leader

Donald Trump is firmly of the view, it seems, that being president of the United States is something akin to being the Supreme Leader. He believes, or so his lawyers say, that as president he has the right under the constitution and under the clemency powers assigned to the White House encumbent, to absolve himself from any suggestion of wrongdoing. In other words, he thinks he can pardon himself were special counsel Robert Mueller ever to try and indict him for colluding with the Russians to destroy Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the 2016 presidential election. The president of the US certainly has the right to issue pardons, and many a convicted American has been forgiven his sins by the sweep of the presidential pen. But can a president seriously pardon himself? Theoretically, this extraordinary idea could be argued in court but there is a serious flaw in Trump's thinking. Trump says he is totally innocent of any alleged collusion with the Russians but if he wants to pardon himself, he first has to admit he is guilty. This is the quid pro quo for being pardoned, admission that the crime took place. But there is no way Trump is ever going to say: "Ok, I admit I colluded with Moscow, now I officially pardon myself, so yaboo sucks." So he's stuck. Unless of course, he and his multiple lawyers which, of course, include the erratic Rudy Giuliani, have concluded that as president he is in charge of American law enforcement and is therefore in a unique position which somehow puts him above the normal laws which affect common folk. This is truly a dangerous path down which democracy starts to look very shakey. Richard Nixon went down that path. He effectively authorised the break-in and burglary of the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate building overlooking the Potomac River in Washington in 1972. He thought he could get away with it and then lie about it afterwards because he was the president. Trump has all kinds of titles, like his predecessors, such as commander-in-chief, which allow him to carry out some pretty dastardly operations. But burglary by your White House staff is not one of them. Trump would be wise to let the Robert Mueller Russia collusion investigation run its course. If Trump believes/knows he is innocent of any of the potential charges, he should stick to that line and not get his lawyers to whisper to the newspapers that a presidential pardon might be in the offing. That makes no sense at all and is just plain silly. Personally, and this is just purely a personal opinion, not based on anything legal or judicious, I don't think Mueller should get the chance to interrogate Trump. If he believes he has evidence to link Trump to collusion then let him make his case to the Department of Justice and to Congress. A formal interview of the president would be damaging to the presidency itself and embarrassing and unnecessary. Mueller already knows the answers to his list of questions. Trump would dismiss all of them as witch hunt fake news. But here's an interesting fact: since Nixon, Obama is the only president not to have had a special investigation against him or his close associates. By contrast, Gerald Ford (affected by the continuing Watergate investigation), Jimmy Carter (allegations of dodgy loans to his family peanut business), Ronald Reagan (the Iran-Contra affair, selling arms to Iran in return for releasing six US hostages), George HW Bush (administration officials accused of illegal arms sales to Iraq in Iran/Iraq war in 1990s), Bill Clinton (the Whitewater affair covering Bill and Hillary's busines dealings, and the Monica Lewinsky affair when he was accused of perjury and obstruction of justice), and George W Bush (administration officials leaked the name of a covert CIA officer, Valerie Plame, to the press), were all subject to high-profile investigations. But none of these presidents were found guilty or were successfully impeached or were forced to resign. I guess Trump might take comfort from this!

Uncle Tom Cobley and all want to see Kim Jong-un

Talk about everyone wanting to get in on the act. As soon as Donald Trump announced he was happy to meet the North Korean leader for a summit to talk about denuclearising the Korean Peninsula, government heads have put their bids in to see Kim Jong-un. What fun he must be having. Suddenly he is at the very centre of a diplomatic whirlwind. Now President Bashar Assad of Syria has aparently indicated he would like to visit Chairman Kim in Pyongyang. What on earth for? Well, the two countries do have diplomatic relations, so I guess it's legitimate, but Assad has never shown any interest in seeing Kim before now, so he must be up to his personal kind of mischief. Perhaps he has a bit of nuclear technology exchange chatting in mind. Either that, or he just wants the world to focus on him doing something other than killing his own citizens. So, apart from Moon Jae-in, South Korean president, who met him at Panmunjom, Xi Zinping who met Kim in Beijing, and Mike Pompeo who saw him in Pyongyang, and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister who probably brought a message from Putin for Kim when he spoke to his opposite number in the North Korean capital, we have to add Assad whose pennyworth of advice, I suspect, will be worth zilch in the great scheme of things. Who else will try to muscle in? Perhaps that great master of intrigue, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, will put in a call. And Bibi Netanyahu is never slow in coming forward to grab some limelight, although a call or visit from the Israeli leader would look distinctly out of place. No one from Europe is going to do anything in case they make Trump even angrier with his European allies than he is already. So, forget it, Jean-Claude Juncker, no job for you. Tony Blair must be tempted. But in which of his many roles would it look appropriate? None. The best for peace in the peninsula would be for everyone to step back and let Trump have a go. If it works out, then most of the rest of the world will benefit. I say most, because Kim's Chinese neighbours are looking for one result and one result only - the withdrawal of all American troops from the region, South Korea and Japan. But that is not going to happen, at least I hope not.

Round one to Kim: his letter is bigger than Trump's

There was always a great tradition - actually a stupid tradition - on the Korean peninsula which related totally to size. So on each side of the demilitarised zone at Panmunjom on the border between North and South Korea, it was all about flags and loudspeakers. Over the years, every time South Korea put up a new flag pole with the South Korean flag, North Kroea made sure it installed a taller flagpole and a bigger flag. Then South Korea eventually would attempt to outdo the North Korea pole and flag and put up an even taller pole and bigger flag. And so on, until North Korea had the tallest pole in the world and the biggest national flag. The same went with the loudspeakers blasting out propaganda across the border. The Noeth Koreans always managed to have bigger speakers and louder propaganda. Now in the new climate of friendship and peace (fingers crossed), the loudspeakers have been taken down and all is quiet at Panmunjom. But the old traditions die hard in North Korea. Kim Jong-un wanted above all to outdo @realDonaldTrump in the letter-writing department. Trump, as far as I know, put his one-page letter to Kim in a normal envelope. Kim's reply ran to numerous pages and was put inside an envelope so huge that Trump's hands were almost completely hidden when he posed for a picture. Who makes such enormous envelopes? Presumbaly a special Kim family printing shop in Pyongyang. When the letter was handed over by General Kim Yong-chol, the former North Korean spy chief, during his visit to Washington and the White House, it was discreetly handed over to the Secret Service to check it out hahaha! They must have thought, "What the hell is this? Could it contain a dangerous device?" It turned out to be Kim just waffling on, page after page, followed by an elaborate signature. I haven't seen Kim's signature but I'm guessing, having spotted Trump's pretty large up and down signature, that Kim's will have been much bigger and with more swirly bits. Definitely a letter for the White House archives. But I'm sorry, Chairman Kim, when you get round to shaking hands with Trump you will find he is much taller than you, so unless you buy the biggest and chunkiest of Cuban-heeled shoes, you are going to be looking up at the president of the United States. Ooops!

Trump goes for Dover sole

It seems a little trite to mention that Trump has decided to stop eating nothing but fast food burgers when so many historically important things are going on in the world. But the president's diet is pretty important. He is looking somewhat heavyweight, even obese, and the wrong diet feeds the brain with the wrong sort of energy. Right now, just 11 days away from holding the Singapore summit with Kim Jong-un, Trump will need whatever brain power he has to be operating at maximum level. So a few dishes of Dover sole, now his chosen dinner meal, could make all the difference. Trump might pass on the same advice he has received from his dietician to the North Korean leader who is definitely over-tubby. Perhaps if they both agree, before the summit, to eat Dover sole during a meal together in Singapore, they might make some decisions that will benefit not just relations between North Korea and the US but with the whole peninsula region. "Dover sole wins the day" would be a nice headline. Meanwhile, the Russians are meddling. You would expect Beijing to be on the line to Pyongyang every few minutes to make sure the right script is written for the summit. But Moscow doesn't want to be left out. So Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, just happens to pop over to Pyongyang for a chat with his North Korean counterpart to add Putin's bit to the script. You can be sure neither Beijing nor Moscow want Trump to triumph in Singapore. That would be bad for the egoes of Xi Zinping and Vladimir Putin. If there is to be any progress on North Korea's nukes they will want to grab some of the kudos. But all the signs are that Kim will tell Trump he is fully behind denuclearising North Korea without actually removing any of his weapons from storage, not for years anyway. It is going to be a very long, slow process. But the more Dover sole Trump and Kim can eat in the meanwhile, the better the chance of a healthy conclusion.